Can China & Russia Form a Superpower Bloc , and Should The US worry ?

China and Russia, The former communist comrades, have returned to being allies in a very different sort of war. The trade war against the US. Today, Russia and China have what they call a "strategic partnership." There are lots that Moscow and Beijing work together on, but defense and trade are at the heart of it. In exchange for Russia's valuable resources, China has been providing its neighbor with advanced machinery and technology including the tools to develop a 5G network. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. China, Mongolia, Uzbekistan, and Russia were once strong allies in the Cold War. Now, rapid transformation is happening in these countries, some of whom are still struggling to emerge from their communist past. How will the Belt and Road Initiative impact Mongolia and integrate it into China’s masterplan for the 21st century? How will the Stan countries go from land-locked to land-linked countries? What is the nature of the new strategic partnership between Russia and China? Despite the Russian and Chinese governments had a long war in history. Today, they recognize that success comes is from cooperation and understanding the differences and figuring out a win-win situation for both. Russia and China, two of the world's largest superpowers are drawing closer together. Through joint military exercises, mega infrastructure projects, and a united front against American protectionism. Amid escalating tensions between China and the US over the trade war, Moscow and Beijing have strengthened their relations with a strategic partnership. The Belt and Road initiative linking China and Russia has spark celebrations and concerns. China, which has a population ten times that of Russia's. Has also invested billions of dollars in the Belt and Road infrastructure projects across the country. Russian and Chinese companies pooled together over $100 million to set up the Russia-China Business Park in Saint Petersburg. It's 10-hectare large, the size of 20 football fields. Russia-China Business Park's efforts to promote trade and commerce between the two countries were driven almost entirely by the private sector. Now, the governments of both countries are also looking to ramp up such initiatives. And that has raised eyebrows around the world. Amid escalating tensions between China and the United States over unresolved trade disputes, Presidents Xi and Putin closed ranks in June this year to denounce what they called the "hegemonic dominance of the international system." Why has Russia taken China's side in the trade war? In recent months, Moscow's support for Beijing has certainly gone beyond just rhetoric. When China was forced to look for alternative sources of meat when its trade talks with the US fell through, Russia was quick to help fill in the gap. The Cherkizovo Group was one of the first food companies in Russia to start exporting meat to China. It's seeking to capitalize on both the trade war, as well as the recent swine fever outbreak in China, which greatly affected China's meat supply. When the US and its allies closed its doors to Huawei over allegations of espionage, Russia welcomed the company with open arms. Just recently, the Chinese tech giant joined forces with the Russians to develop a 5G network in the country. Huawei was a casualty of the ongoing trade dispute between China and the US. By welcoming Huawei to collaborate with a Russian firm MTC. While the Russians do not appear to be concerned about issues surrounding artificial intelligence and hi-tech partnerships, I wonder if their commitment to these partnerships will be affected by changing global political winds. If the US eventually softens its approach on China, will this have an impact on the current collaborations between Russia and China? The reality is China views Russia as much more than a trading partner. Russia's strategic location makes it a vital bridge for China to connect both the arctic and Eurasia with the broader New Silk Road. Moscow was slapped with tough sanctions by the US and its allies, following its annexation of Crimea. At a time when countries were closing their doors to Russia, China chose to buck the trend. It helped soften the impact of the sanctions on Russia's population by pumping billions of dollars into its neighbor. America and Europe were unimpressed. In return, Russia granted Chinese access to its prized energy sector. The Chinese and the Russians are now in the business of distributing power, but not in the political sense. Shipping and energy companies from both sides are now involved in a mega collaboration to extract and export liquefied natural gas from Russia's arctic region. Most of this liquefied natural gas, or LNG comes from Russia's Yamal Peninsula, which holds one-fifth of the country's natural resources. Through several state-run enterprises, China currently owns a 30% stake in this LNG plant which is capable of producing 57 million tonnes of natural gas a year. It's just one of several projects China has embarked on in the arctic. In the past few years, it has invested heavily in expeditions, research centers and ice breakers as part of a grand strategy to develop a "Polar Silk Road." Beijing's desire drives these plans to dominate the northern sea route, a maritime corridor which has recently become more accessible due to climate change. Although the route flows along Russia's arctic coast, Moscow has encouraged China's ambitions. Why does Russia support China's plans to create an arctic silk road? The Northern Sea Route is a disputed area. Will this affect China's polar silk road plans? From thwarting America's attempts to weaken their economies to joining forces to dominate the arctic. Sino-Russian cooperation is extensive and it's an alliance that's been strengthened by the close friendship between both countries' presidents. But it remains to be seen if this personality-based diplomacy can survive the test of time. Saint Petersburg, Russia's second largest city. It’s famous for its rivers, which are flanked by neoclassical buildings, vestiges of a bygone era. It's also the hometown of Vladimir Putin. The Russian President was all too happy to show his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping around when he made his eighth state visit to Russia this year. They shared a private cruise along this very river. They even visited Mr. Putin's Alma Mater where the Chinese President received an honorary doctorate. But that may not have been the highlight of President Xi's tour, because there was one attraction, he was especially eager to visit. This is the Aurora, a decommissioned Russian war cruiser, which is over a hundred years old. While many Russians today view the ship as just another landmark of the city, it holds a special significance among the Chinese. Onboard this ship in October 1917, the crew of the Aurora launched a mutiny against their captain, a Tsar loyalist. After killing him and taking over the ship, they fired a shot from one of their cannons. This marked the beginning of the Bolshevik revolution. Some Chinese still today celebrate this event for bringing communism to China. What's the significance of Presidents Xi and Putin visiting this ship? Why is this ship so crucial to the Chinese? But China's interests in Russian military vessels is not confined to just history. In recent years, Moscow has been equipping Beijing with its most advanced weapons and military vehicles. They also hold regular joint military exercises, on a massive scale. The biggest of which was the 2018 Vostok war games held across Siberia and Russia’s the Far East. With nearly 300,000 troops as well as thousands of aircraft, ships, and tanks, it was the most significant military drill since the Cold War. These recent developments underscore a major geopolitical shift. The two countries which used to regard each as other as military rivals, are extending their cooperation beyond just economics, to defense as well. I manage to witness the closeness between the two militaries first-hand. While traveling around Saint Petersburg, I chance upon a Chinese missile destroyer that had docked here. It's been invited to mark Russia's Naval Day, One of the few foreign ships to participate in the celebrations. Concerns have emerged in the US and Europe, over a China-Russia alliance. And the potential for the two giants to form a formidable geopolitical bloc by integrating the Eurasian Economic Union or EAEU with the Belt and Road Initiative. The EAEU is made up of Russia, Armenia, Belarus, along with Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in Central Asia. Both China and Russia say they are committed to a multilateral approach, and are not pursuing a geopolitical bloc. In the meantime, the presidents of both countries have already committed to implementing the BRI in a new era of Sino-Russian cooperation. They've met nearly 30 times in the past six years. Their close friendship has been widely regarded to be the pillar of the strategic partnership. But I wonder whether personality-based diplomacy is a durable basis for long-term relations between two countries who have no unifying links such as culture? Apart from trade, China and Russia have largely only two overlapping interests: Getting rid of the US presence in the vicinity of their borders . Holding the militant Islamism down in Central Asia . Neither the US nor the Islamists are going to go anywhere any time soon. But both China and Russia are painfully aware that the day it happens, they will be much more rivals than friends in Central Asia. But also in Transcaucasia if the OBOR plans pan out in the end. Add to that the ideological dimension to it. Putinism has increasingly been about “raising Russia from its knees” in Russia's relations with the West. This mantra plays strongly on the imperial nostalgy from the era of the Russian empire and the Soviet superpower. Yet, the creeping transformation of Russia into the extractive backyard of China defeats this narrative. For now, Putin has total control over the domestic media and political parties. But imagine how it’s going to explode in his face the day radical nationalists find their voice. The Chinese are content with the direction where Russia is going with Putin: #1. Increasing inclusion of the Russian economy into Chinese logistics as a pool of colonial wares—and possibly an alternative transit route to Europe. #2. Slow de-industrialization. This ties Russia’s military-industrial complex to China as the supplier of high-tech components. If russia's rift with the West lasts another decade, it’s only a matter of time before the direction of military exports between China and Russia is fully reversed. #3. Ossifying of the Russian political landscape under a firm control of the police state, which assures stability and predictability. #4. Few key players on the very top who control everything of importance to the Chinese inside Russia. This gives to the Chinese a reliable one-stop shop for negotiating everything and making sure the agreements reached will be honored. If this trend goes ahead, it will weaken Putin’s hand in playing the middle between China and the West. He needs to put a break to it from time to time. He also needs to counter the proliferation of Chinese agents of influence inside the state-oligarchical clans around him. This is another roadblock on the way to a full-fledged long-term strategic alliance with China. So tell us what you think, will China and Russia overcome their cultural differences and form a geopolitical bloc that could challenge the US and Europe. Let us know what you think in the comment section below.









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