Earthquake Watch January 6, 2015

Earthquake Watch is Here, Galaxy Flares| S0 News January 6, 2015



Smashing Results About Our Nearby Galactic Neighbors
"An early result from the Survey of the Magellanic Stellar History (SMASH), carried out by an international team of astronomers using telescopes that include the Blanco 4-meter at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) in Chile, suggests the the Magellanic Clouds are much bigger than astronomers calculated, and also have non-uniform structure at their outer edge, hinting at a rich and complex field of debris left over from their formation and interaction. Results were presented at the 225th meeting of the American Astronomical Society in Seattle, Washington ... “We knew from the earlier work of SMASH team members that the LMC was larger than we thought, but those observations probed only 1 percent of the area that we need to explore. SMASH is probing an area 20 times larger, and is confirming beyond doubt that the LMC is really large while also giving us a chance to map its structure in detail.” said Dr. Knut Olsen (National Optical Astronomy Observatory) one of the leaders of the SMASH team. The team has identified stars belonging to the LMC at angular distances up to 20 degrees away, corresponding to 55 thousand light years. This was done using a new camera, dubbed DECam, mounted on the CTIO Blanco 4-meter telescope, which allows the SMASH team to identify faint stars over a much larger area than ever before ... The team is also exploring the Magellanic Stream, a gaseous structure that connects the two Clouds and extends in front and behind them ... As Dr. Nidever said, “SMASH’s ability to reveal super-faint stellar structures should not only allow us to finally detect the stellar component of the Magellanic Stream but also map out its structure which will give us a much better understanding of the Magellanic Clouds’ interaction history.”"
~ http://www.noao.edu/news/2015/pr1501.php

Galaxy seen shuddering from ancient collision
"Using thousands of exposures from the Hubble Space Telescope, astronomers have created the sharpest and deepest image ever assembled of the Andromeda galaxy. The 100,000-pixel-wide composite picture suggests that the galaxy was clobbered in a major collision with another galaxy some 2 billion years ago, says one of the authors of the study. The mosaic, which covers about one-quarter of the Milky Way's nearest twin, shows evidence of a galaxy-wide wave of star birth that could have been triggered by such an ancient impact, astronomer Benjamin Williams of the University of Washington in Seattle told Nature. The project, known as the PHAT (Panchromatic Hubble Andromeda Treasury), used all three of Hubble’s cameras and combined 7,398 ultraviolet, visible-light and infrared exposures taken between July 2010 and October 2013. It was presented at a meeting of the American Astronomical Society in Seattle on 5 January..."
~ www.nature.com/news/galaxy-seen-shuddering-from-ancient-collision-1.16656
~ http://hubblesite.org/newscenter/archive/releases/2015/02/image/a/

Computation of dose rate at flight altitudes during ground level enhancements no. 69, 70 and 71
Abstract:
A new numerical model of estimating and monitoring the exposure of personnel due to secondary cosmic radiation onboard aircraft, in accordance with radiation safety standards as well as European and national regulations, has been developed. The model aims to calculate the effective dose at flight altitude (39,000 ft) due to secondary cosmic radiation of galactic and solar origin. In addition, the model allows the estimation of ambient dose equivalent at typical commercial airline altitudes in order to provide comparison with reference data. The basics, structure and function of the model are described. The model is based on a straightforward full Monte Carlo simulation of the cosmic ray induced atmospheric cascade. The cascade simulation is performed with the PLANETOCOSMICS code. The flux of secondary particles, namely neutrons, protons, gammas, electrons, positrons, muons and charged pions is calculated. A subsequent conversion of the particle fluence into the effective dose or ambient dose equivalent is performed as well as a comparison with reference data. An application of the model is demonstrated, using a computation of the effective dose rate at flight altitude during the ground level enhancements of 20 January 2005, 13 December 2006 and 17 May 2012.
Summary and Discussion:
Studies of the contribution of CR particles of galactic and solar origin during some major GLEs on aircrew exposure is of great importance (Reitz, 1993; O’Brien et al., 1997; Spurny et al., 2002; Vainio et al., 2009). The potential biological risk of radiation doses, specifically of aircrew exposure is still a matter of scientific debate (Sigurdson and Ron, 2004; Ballarini et al., 2007).
In this paper we assessed the effective dose rates during several major GLEs of solar cycle 23, namely GLE 69, GLE 70 and GLE 71. During these events the effective dose rate was computed as a superposition of the effects caused by GCR and SEP fluxes. The spectral and angular distributions of SEPs were explicitly considered during the computations. The results were obtained using a numerical model on the basis of a full Monte Carlo simulation of the atmospheric cascade induced by CR of galactic and solar origin. The model can be used at various altitudes above sea level, since we perform a full target simulation of the atmo- spheric cascade.
It is shown that during the initial phase of the major event of 20 January 2005 the effective dose rate at the flight altitude (39,000 ft or 12,000 m above sea level) was ~150 lSv/h at North polar region and 􏰄1000 lSv/h at South polar region. During the late phase of this event the computed effective dose rate was still significant 􏰄200 lSv/h. Therefore, this event could increase significantly the potential biological risk of aircrew members and passengers. The computed effective dose rate at the flight altitude during the initial phase of GLE70 on 13 December 2006 was about 50 lSv/h, thus the expected risk is comparable to the declining phase of GLE69. However, the computed effective dose rate at flight altitude during the late phase of GLE70 is considerably lower. The computed effective dose rate at flight altitude during the initial phase of GLE71 on 17 of May 2012 was greater than the for the late phase of GLE70. It is roughly three times greater than the average due to GCR.
As recently demonstrated the expected computed effective dose rate at flight altitude during some major GLEs is highly dependent on assumed SEP spectra (Butikofer and Fluckiger, 2013). In addition, other model assumptions (Mishev and Velinov, 2010) lead to about 15% difference of secondary particle characteristics, accordingly the effective dose rate. In this respect, the obtained computations are in a full agreement with some previously reported results (Bu ̈tikofer et al., 2008; Matthia ̈ et al., 2009a,b). The applied 3-D model is a contribution to the recent Monte Carlo studies related to radiation measurements (O’Sullivan et al., 2002; Makovicka et al., 2009) as well as to registration of SEP and their exposure effect during intercontinental flights (Regulla and David, 1993; Spurny et al., 2002, 2008).
[Ref] Mishev, A. L., Adibpour, F., Usoskin, I. G., & Felsberger, E. (2015). Computation of dose rate at flight altitudes during ground level enhancements no. 69, 70 and 71. Advances in Space Research, 55(1), 354-362.
[full paper] ~ http://cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/Mishev_ASR_2015.pdf

An Unusual Pattern of Cosmic-Ray Modulation During Solar Cycles 23 and 24
Abstract:
By means of an analysis of data from eight neutron monitor (NM) stations with different geomagnetic cutoff rigidities, we found an unusual latitudinal effect observed in the cosmic-ray (CR) modulation during the last solar cycles. Since the beginning of the ground-based cosmic-ray monitoring, it is known that the solar-cycle modulation is more evident in data from high latitude than from the medium and low latitudes, showing an expected geomagnetic cutoff rigidity effect. However, a more detailed look shows a new latitudinal effect in cycle 24: while the magnitude of the solar modulation in the low-latitude data remains the same for the last three solar minima, the last solar minimum caused a more intense peak in the polar NM data than in the previous cycles. After correcting the data for the geomagnetic changes of the period, we found an anomalous solar modulation in the last cycle. This suggests a weaker heliospheric modulation at low-energy particles (responsible for the NM counting in polar sites) now than in the previous cycles, while there is no significant difference of the modulation for the more energetic part of the CR spectrum. Our result can be associated with changes of the solar wind turbulence, which would corroborate some recent studies about the last solar minimum phase, and indicates that this new solar modulation feature is still present in the current solar maximum stage.
~ http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-014-0645-0

German Analysis: Spreading Alarmism Over Mere Hundredths Of A Degree Is “Complete Hyperbolism”
"...There are different datasets available for global temperature. I’m selecting the most alarmist, which comes from NASA ... Since 1880 the global temperature has risen about 0.8°C, i.e. not even a full degree. Since 1998 (a powerful El-Nino-year) there’s been practically no rise. What follows is a blow-up for the recent period. In 2007 and 2010 it was just as warm as in 2014, or even warmer. We’re talking about 1/100 °C, which is deep inside the range of uncertainty. Yet the concentrations of atmospheric CO2 continued their steady rise. Based on these data, spreading climate alarmism is complete hyperbolism. Very likely in the days ahead NASA will be announcing a global temperature record that in reality never was."
~ http://notrickszone.com/2015/01/05/german-analysi

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