Stocks, bonds, and real estate are at all-time highs. Household income is at an all-time high. Government spending is at an all-time high. Consumer demand is so strong the supply chains can't keep up. We're either in the greatest economic boom ever or the Mother Of All Bubbles. A dangerous situation is brewing here. We have shortages of energy, shortages of labor (in certain sectors), shortages of all sorts of goods, shortages of housing (at least at the low end in what is supposed to be the affordable bracket), snarled supply chains, and political leadership hell-bent on making it worse. We've had a very high standard of living for the past century or so. I suspect that's being challenged now. It can drop fairly significantly without feeling like a complete crash. But our lifestyle depends on cheap energy, and lots of it. If we really get significant inflation in food and fertilizer prices (which looks quite possible) and farmers get squeezed on their margins (perhaps squeezed out of business), there could well be widespread starvation. What has kept this world economy propped far longer than anyone thought it could be is a testament to the incredible level of modern productivity... We have been living off of that productivity for the past forty years and we are using it up... When the crash comes it will be sudden... and it will be epic... The Fed and other central banks’ ability to manipulate markets will likely temper any crash. If markets were truly allowed to function then they would never have gotten to the levels they are at now. We have been in a Recession since the last Recession. Hyperinflation is inevitable. The US dollar is no longer a proper measuring stick. As it's being inflated away, stock values will continue to rise. Moreover, since gold is valued in dollars, and stonks are measured in dollars. Gold is inevitable. Stocks can no longer find the appropriate price because of this endless Fed put. Corrections in valuation are not allowed, so PEs keep expanding. If the kid down the street had a lemonade stand that earned $1 a year, would you buy the business from him for $45, $80, $100? That is what the market is doing. Taper is really a tenuous construct. If the stock market goes down 5%, they stop the taper. Down 10%, they restart QE. Everyone knows this. The question is how large does the bubble gets and how much inflation do we have before things get ugly. Rates are what really matter and everyone knows they can't do much there or they can't pay the interest on the debt. They are painted into a corner. They thought by creating a little inflation they could slowly manage the debt over time. All they really did was make politicians realize that they don’t have to stop spending money and can increase the debt massively because rates will never be allowed to rise and money will be printed to pay the debt. Central Banks are lackeys for the Davos crowd elites. The Federal Reserve is waiting on a trigger event to justify their actions. The equities will continue to advance unabated and the Fed’s Congressional mandates will remain out of reach. The Federal Reserve’s transparency has taken away their ability to dictate policy rendering them reactionary to the investment community. Wall Street Mission Objectives are. #1 - Dump the profitable stocks with fair valuations. #2 - Pump overvalued tech stocks and the unprofitable small caps. #3 - Short anything retail likes. #4 - Pump anything retail shorts. The Elite has broken the world. The Casino will be last to collapse. This is going to be an inflation economy coupled with a crashing market. It will last as long as a pane of glass is hit with a hammer, but you don't want to be walking around barefoot afterward. Just wait until the crypto bubble pops. Gold and silver will soar like you wouldn't believe! It is ABSURD that an unelected cabal can expand OUR NATION'S CURRENCY SUPPLY by over 30% .... ALL BY THEMSELVES!!! We have a government that is run on a checks and balances system... but the Federal Reserve is untethered, unaccountable. Markets have been manipulated ever since we were taken off the gold standard! The coming crash will be followed by the coming boom and again followed by the next crash and boom. Throw in your occasional war rinse and repeat and there your have it, plain and simple. The Golden Goose is dead. Debt is good. Lender is slave to the borrower. Saving is Punished. “Stable” now means increasing (prices) at a stable rate of increase. (2nd Fed mandate) Extremely low-interest rates are moderate, even though at immoderate record lows. (3rd mandate). The future funds the present. (It is no longer incumbent on each generation to pay their debts.) The free market economy is arranged by unbridled unelected power. (central bankers) Democracy is ruled by these monetary dictators. Ignorance is strength. Freedom is slavery. We cannot raise rates because there is too much debt, so we must allow the current condition of zero cost debt creation to continue. Tax unrealized gains. Rates must stay low to solve the employment situation, even though there are record job openings. Central Banks that are in place to prevent inflation, promote inflation and let it run hot. Few understand that shorting stock has become a way of life for the Wall Street insiders. The scale defies belief. The debt issuance (and therefore debt demand) needs to be exponential for the fiat Ponzi to continue ,because Keynesian economics needs constant growth to beat inflation. If the Fed pumps the breaks on their debt purchases the system will seize up. After a 20% crash is blamed on an economy in recession next Spring, the Fed will go back to rampant bond buying. Stack up gold AND silver in the meantime. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. These insane market rallies are as much because retail is piling in as it is because the insiders are running out of ammo to short. Marge is calling… Given that every stock now seems to be gamma squeeze to completely unrealistic levels. I suspect a stock market crash is highly likely. I would not be long US markets now with somebody's else money! I also expect Tesla & Nvidia to crash. VIX is a steal. This is going to get ugly fast. " The lack of experience across trading floors and dealing rooms at banks, investors, and brokers of market instability – anyone under 40 in finance has never seen real market mayhem. " This will be the black swan event. The trend is your friend until the end. In dealing with crazy markets it is the end that needs to be planned for and not the trend. This only goes to prove that ultimately justifications do not matter, only results. Once you know that a trend can't last, you can only prepare for the end. But you always know that a trend can't last from the beginning of the trend. Getting out is one way to prepare but it is at the expense of abandoning the trend. Most investment literature will be happy to point all of this out. It's true but not worth very much. This trend will end, but when? That is the most important question. I think soon, but I could be wrong. Tapering is indicative, but Powell could reverse once bond and equity markets swoon. Everyone buys the dip and we head up one more time. Presumably. The end will likely not be foretold by the usual measures. One thing which makes me think the end is near is Biden's ordering all workers to take the jab or be fired. Massive fines for businesses that do not comply. At that point a major crisis in the economy will ensue as workers are faced with the choice between the jab and the job. I would expect major political and economic crisis. If workers walk on their jobs en masse or turn on mandating businesses in anger, I would expect markets to be shaken enough to fall. A major showdown between the public and the authority of central governments is coming. It is hard to see how economies and markets can stand when caught between them. America is the frat party at 2 am. There's still some warm beer and maybe an almost empty bottle of good liquor somewhere if you look, but the hotties are long gone, people are sleeping on the floor already, and all what's left is for the cops to show up and turn off the music.
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