After The Worst Jobs Loss Year on Record, Millions of Americans remain Jobless The United States’s jobs recovery is extremely poor, especially if we consider the size of the monetary and fiscal stimulus and the spectacular upgrade to GDP estimates. After a massive consensus increase in GDP recovery estimates to 6.5 percent in 2021, no one should be cheering a 5.9 percent unemployment rate, 58 percent employment-to-population ratio, and, even worse, a 61.6 percent labor force participation rate that has remained stagnant for ten months. Furthermore, Bloomberg Economics shows that the United States unemployment rate would be 8.4 percent excluding the participation decline. In the European Union, the employment situation is also a cause of concern. The United States’s jobs recovery is certainly strong only when compared with an extremely weak European jobs environment. In May 2021, the euro area’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 7.9 percent, marginally down from 8.1 percent in April 2021. These figures, published by Eurostat, do not include the 6 million furloughed jobs that remain in the European Union. Eurostat estimates that 15.278 million men and women in the EU, of whom 12.792 million are in the euro area, were unemployed in May 2021. Compared with May 2020, unemployment rose by 949,000 in the EU and by 803,000 million in the euro area. Despite a strong recovery in the purchasing managers’ index (PMI), the employment component remains poor. Euro area unemployment rate would be closer to 11 percent including furloughed jobs. The disappointing jobs recovery should also be analyzed in the context of the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus in decades. No one can seriously consider these job figures as positive in the middle of trillions of dollars of deficit spending and monetary stimulus. The Keynesian so-called miracle of government spending and central bank intervention has failed again. We must also remember that these figures are happening in the middle of a better-than-expected recovery in the services sector, which tells us that the risk of a jobless recovery that we mentioned a few months ago is even clearer now. We estimate that the unemployment rate and labor participation rate of 2019 will not be recovered in the United States until 2025 … if there is no financial or economic crisis in the process. Even worse, we believe that almost 30 percent of furloughed jobs in the European Union will not be absorbed even by 2025. The slow jobs recovery is not something economists should simply ignore or underestimate. An artificial increase in GDP driven by debt and deficit spending and where job creation is so weak is also a recipe for a debt crisis in a stagnant economy where job creation may slow even more. When the mirage of monetary and fiscal stimulus evaporates, we will likely see a return to the failed low-productivity growth and indebted model that defined the 2010–18 recovery, but with an alarming increase in government size and interventionism. More debt, less growth, and millions of people out of a job due to increased levels of intervention. The hilarious thing is that many will blame the poor recovery on capitalism and neoliberalism when all we are seeing is the result of massive government and public absorption of economic resources. Welcome back to The Atlantis Report. You are here for your daily dose of the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Please take a second to hit the like button, hit the subscribe button, and don't forget to also hit the notification bell. Thank You. Despite the addition of a better than expected 850,000 jobs in June, the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.9%, The anticipation was that it would drop to 5.6%. The media spun this as a fantastic jobs report, focusing on the headline number of jobs created. It was a weaker report than the headlines would suggest. And the really bad news is unemployment and prices are rising together. In the first place, these aren’t really new jobs being created. They are jobs restored. These are jobs that we temporarily set aside due to COVID and now we’re simply bringing them back. So, it’s not really about an economy creating all these new jobs. We’re just restoring the jobs that we temporarily eliminated due to COVID.” The unemployment rate was expected to drop. The move to 5.9% exceeded the upper end of the range of expectations. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate was expected to improve. It remained exactly the same at 61.6%. So, we are not pulling more people out of the sidelines back into the game when it comes to employment. They are sitting on the sidelines, I guess collecting their unemployment checks.” Most of the job growth was once again in the service sector as restaurants open back up. The number of manufacturing jobs grew less than expected. The projection was for 27,000 new jobs in that sector. The actual number came in at 15,000. There were also signs that inflation is spilling over into the labor market. Wages were up. The year-over-year rise was 3.6%. If you go back just one month, the year-over-year rise was 2%. Other data that came in last week signaled the economy isn’t nearly as strong as a lot of people seem to believe. The May trade deficit was $71.2 billion. The April number was also revised up from $68.9 billion to $69.1 billion. The trade numbers tell the truth about how bad the US economy is, how malinvested and misallocated our recourses are that we are hemorrhaging all of this red ink.” These huge deficits result from the fact that the US prints trillions of dollars but doesn’t produce a lot of goods. In order to buy goods with all this printed money, we end up buying the goods that are produced abroad, and the result is a big trade deficit that ultimately is going to put a lot of downward pressure on the dollar and therefore upward pressure on prices.” Manufacturing data also came in lower than expected. But the data that keeps coming in hotter than expected is inflation data. If you look at the “prices paid” components in these reports, they are hitting extremely high levels, some going back to highs seen in the 1970s. There isn’t any evidence that we’re near a peak in prices. In fact, it is expected that the real price increases to start when the dollar rolls over. We’re seeing all of this price pressure even though the dollar isn’t going down. But once the dollar really starts to go down, then that is going to exert even more upward pressure on prices.” The markets liked the tick up in unemployment because it ostensibly decreases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will make any move to tighten monetary policy in the near term. Stocks rallied and the dollar weakened slightly. Gold and silver were up a bit, although investors in those markets still seem to be pricing in tightening. It seems like it’s taking longer to price this stuff back out. But eventually, the markets are going to realize that this whole thing was a head-fake, that they had it right before, that the Fed is going to stay looser for longer, that we shouldn’t have moved forward the expectation for when the Fed is going to finally start to hike rates or when the Fed is going to begin to taper. We need to push those expectations back even further. That doesn’t mean that the Fed isn’t eventually going to raise rates, or it isn’t eventually going to start shrinking its balance sheet. But it’s not going to be because the Fed wants to. It’s going to be because the Fed has to — because the Fed has no choice. They are never going to deliberately pull the rug out from under the economy, out from under the markets. They are going to do everything they can to keep the air from coming out of this bubble. And so, when we finally do get that interest rate move up, it’s going to be in reaction to a crisis. It’s going to be because inflation is already such an enormous problem that it is damaging the economy and it is damaging the dollar to the point where the Fed finally feels that the price of doing something about it outweighs the cost of doing nothing about it.” But the markets are still buying into the “inflation is transitory narrative.” In fact, rising unemployment plays into this storyline. A lot of people simply equate high inflation with higher employment. If more people aren’t working, that takes away some of the inflationary pressure. Some people will take rising unemployment as a signal that the Fed has got it right. What they don’t realize is that we’re going to get much more inflation than the markets expect, but a weaker labor market than the markets expect. It is stagflation. And so when the Fed is ultimately forced to tighten monetary policy, it’s going to do it into a weakening economy, into a weakening labor market. Not a strengthening labor market. And of course, it’s going to be too little too late. It is not going to work. The only way it would work is if the degree to which the Fed tightened was something akin to what Paul Volker did. The problem is we can’t even come close to affording even a fraction of what Volker did because of the enormity of the debt as compared to what the debt was back then.” Why work when they pay you more to sit home? “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.” ― Margaret Thatcher. Just a matter of time before Biden administraiton raids the 4O1Ks and IRA accounts and strips them of wealth, slow at first at 10% and everything at once. Bingo.Socialism is nothing more than a room full of people deciding amongst themselves who will be the last ones to grow apples and bake them so everybody else in the room can demand free apple pie, then complain their piece isn't big enough.. or they did not get ice cream. There are not 9 million unfilled available jobs. Many jobs are counted 10x or more because they are posted at multiple places on the internet. Other jobs aren't really jobs. They are solicitations for resumes by employment agencies to keep their database updated for people looking for work. Other jobs are only available for internal promotions. An entire generation pumping gas, waiting tables, slaves with white collars, advertising has us chasing cars and clothes, working jobs we hate so we can buy crap we don't need. We're the middle children of history man, no purpose or place, we have no Great war, no Great depression, our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives, we've been all raised by television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires and movie gods and rock stars, but we won't and we're slowly learning that fact. and we're very very pissed off. This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. Leave me a comment. Subscribe. And please take some time to subscribe to my backup channels, I do upload videos there too. You'll find the links in the description box. 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