Thursday, March 25, 2021
👉Is The Housing Market About To CRASH In 2021 ? -- Real Estate Market Bubble 2.0
👉Is The Housing Market About To CRASH In 2021 ? -- Real Estate Market Bubble 2.0
The world will remember this year as the year normal life was torn up by the pandemic.
Millions of Americans still remain out of work. The US economy continues to languish, burdened by government lockdowns and other pandemic-related factors. Retail sales have dropped precipitously over the last several months, underscoring the economic malaise.
Our national debt recently eclipsed $28 trillion. Corporate debt was already skyrocketing prior to the pandemic. All of this is driven by loose Federal Reserve monetary policy designed to drive borrowing.
But there’s another segment of the economy buried in debt .The commercial real estate market.
For many owners of commercial real estate, the big trouble hasn’t even started.
Federal Reserve data show U.S. commercial property debt climbed to an all-time high of $3.06 trillion , up from a 10-year low of $2.2 trillion in 2012.
State governors seem determined to bankrupt every small business. Large employers are happy to cut their office space requirements by letting employees continue working from home, even after the pandemic is over. Work from home policies will be key to attracting and keeping the best employees. Employees are happy to move to cheaper areas with a better quality of life.
The problem is compounded by the fact that the value of the commercial real estate is falling like a rock thanks to a shift toward work-at-home and the brick-and-mortar retail apocalypse. In a nutshell, the commercial real estate market is plagued by too much debt and not enough assets.
This is nowhere near the problem that the housing bubble was in 2008, but it is another example of the economic distortions caused by the Fed’s monetary policy.
Now the question is, Who will pay off all that debt?
It looks like the borrowers will leave it to the lenders.
And the lenders will leave it to the taxpayers and (ultimately) Fed money printing.
We have seen this movie in the past, and we will see it again in the future (on steroids).The lenders -aka the financial system - will sink, and most of them will be bailed out. This is turning routinary, although the specific scapegoat may differ.
The financial system collapsing periodically is a feature, not a bug, of our Fractional reserves- fiat central bank money combo.
You need to look no further than ridiculously low-interest rates over the past decade. Low-interest rates fueled an explosion in property values, which, of course, has had very little correlation with where wages have been.
If you made a property purchase immediately after the crisis, your cost base is far lower than it is for anybody that purchased in the last 2-3 years. If you have a higher baseline cost basis, you need to charge more for rent to break even or create positive cash flow.
Once we enter the upcoming recession/depression, those that were late to the party will be left holding the bag. They'll be stressed out as their equity evaporates before their eyes, their mortgages go underwater, and they can't find anyone to rent their properties for anything close to break even.
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This market needs to correct. We have an entire generation of people who cannot afford to buy homes. It’s absolutely sickening.
The real estate market will surely start to feel the pinch very soon if it hasn't already for the following four reasons.
#1. Mortgage rates are rising.
#2. Home prices are rising.
#3. The end of forbearance could bring millions of delinquencies.
#4. Unemployment claims remain high.
The market will crash hard in cities and suburbia, but not everywhere. Rural home and property values (places with low taxes, charm, beauty, and most importantly where you have the ability to be self-sustaining with respect to food production and other such things) will at the worst plateau... and will, in some cases, likely steadily go up.
Los Angeles prices keep going up and will NEVER stop going up most of the time, as will New York City through its small drips and other sunbelt areas.
In New York City,$1.1 billion worth of property loans are now considered distressed in Times Square according to the real-estate-data platform CREDiQ. And its latest property appraisal slashed its value by 80% to about $92.5 million.
The big tax increases will be not only Los Angeles, New York big small to middle size cities and county's will see BIG increase than ever before in house taxes going up minimum 1to 3% a year especially with the low-interest rates and housing going up 20 to 50% in most areas of the country. The Cities, counties, and states were again cut off from Care aid this time around and also cut them off to BOND Federal Markets and must make up for these short fund gaps by an increase in taxes for all services.
The shift toward remote working is changing where people call home. Sacramento, California, is projected to be the strongest housing market in 2021 due to its 2-hour proximity to San Francisco.
We also have bidding wars in Florida. People are going nuts; 50-100k over asking is nothing anymore, ten bids lined up.
Haven't seen this since 2006, but that was different; that was banks giving anyone and their dog a loan. This is mostly cash believe it or not. Attribute the permanent shift in work from home, sell the New York City condo and pay cash for a place in Florida.
And we all know where this will lead. Bidding wars now, and a complete housing market collapse to follow. It is the law of economic gravity. What goes up must come crashing back down. The higher it goes, the greater impact it will have when it all comes tumbling down. And right now, housing prices have been propelled into the stratosphere, thanks to all of that free federal reserve money being pumped into the markets, and thus, into people's 4O1K's.
Now, people have all kinds of money to dump into this housing market bubble.
Just as the free and easy money policies of 2004-2007 have led to the housing bubble in the first place that eventually collapsed, the plan worked so well that they are doing it again. And just a reminder, the easy money policies during the roaring '20s have also led to the 1929 and beyond collapse and economic ruin.
Even with some 17 million Americans behind on their mortgage or rent payments, home sales remain brisk. Real estate agents say in some areas, houses sell the same day they’re listed. On the surface, it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. But then again, neither does a stock market hitting record highs. And in fact, both are booming for the exact same reason – Federal Reserve policy. The markets don’t really care about economic data or political drama. As long as the monetary heroin keeps flowing, the bubbles will keep growing – until they pop.
And the Federal Reserve is still convinced that there's no inflation.
Over the last few decades, a great amount of wealth flowing into paper promises rather than tangible assets has masked true inflation, but it is everywhere. This means that while many economy watchers tout the line, any economic crisis will result in massive defaults, and deflation hidden forces may prove them very wrong.
One place it is most obvious is apparent in the replacement cost of buildings and infrastructure destroyed or damaged by nature's fury.
The FED never cares about average Joe.
Thank the Fed and zero-interest, creating a massive bubble in home values.
Not to mention the Fed bought up 1.2 trillion dollars in bad mortgages to keep home prices up. It's a way to get more tax revenue. The middle class feels richer with higher home values even as more and more of their money goes out the window in property taxes.
Uncontrolled inflation of 3% to 25% per year in housing, healthcare, tuition, decent food - you know - stuff to survive.
Just because the jiggered government stats reflect nothing important to 95% of individuals and families doesn't mean the FED isn't screwing everybody over.
Very clever those central bankers.
They’ve figured out how to apply inflation to one economic sector at a time. So most people will hardly notice it until they choke on it, which is the obvious objective.
Renters indirectly pay for the QE insane house prices and exponentially increasing property taxes.
Landlords pass on these expenses.
Until the renters can no longer pay.
We are at that point now. Many cities have renters paying 50% or more of take-home pay for the rent.
There is no money left to save, buy a car, take a vacation, or have children, etc...
Baby boomers are definitely cautious with their decisions. I do not see the majority of boomers buying expensive luxury homes, and only a minority of millennials are gravitating towards owning a large home.
Generation z and Millennials are now faced with the industrial technology revolution where the use of technology & speed are more important than cars and homes.
Shared homes and cars are not going away, so builders should start focusing on building more affordable homes with built-in technologies and charging ports for electric cars and scooters.
More and more Americans are renting than ever before, and a combination of rising rents and stagnant wages is making it harder for many to keep a roof over their heads. It's a vicious circle. Higher rents are squeezing people on low incomes, and they're also hit by a drop-off in public housing stocks. Middle to high-income earners who can't afford to buy houses are competing with the low-income earners and migrants for the rental stock that's available, and that drives up prices. This is the new America, where 85 percent of the population lives paycheck to paycheck.
Rent and housing prices are out of control.
All the big cities, but even cheaper, more rural states have seen massive increases in rents in the past 5-10 years that do not keep pace with the stagnating wages.
From fast-food workers to shuttle bus drivers, many Americans aren't able to afford to house or pay the bills on current wages.
In today's America, the middle class is dead. You are either rich or poor.
The American dream was that you could work 40 hours a week with a livable wage and be able to pay your bills, but prices keep going up while wages stagnate for most. How messed up is it that most Americans don't even have $400 for an emergency.
And as Millennials can't afford to buy houses because of Student loans; They are forced into the rental market when previous generations would have been in the starter-home market. So the rental market gets bid up while single-family starter homes go down the tubes.
Also, Consumer debt as a percentage of GDP is now at a record HIGH. We now are at 19% consumer debt to GDP. We were only around 17-18% prior to the last meltdown! The debt doom loop continues. In the case of a financial crisis, you could bet that asset prices will tumble across the board. So, it may not be a bad idea for investors to have some protection for their portfolios. Gold does a great job of storing wealth and could be a great hedge against a financial crisis. This situation is like the Titanic, holed below the waterline; the water keeps pouring in quicker than the water can be extracted out. Eventually, the volume of the water pouring will bring the entire ship down. The Titanic is sinking in an ocean of financial debt, yet the orchestra keeps on playing. Everything is OK, don't worry folks; this ship is too big to sink. This is Crazy.
The ONLY thing that can fix this is a massive economic and social collapse. Far greater than the great depression. That is the only reset button.
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