Monday, March 2, 2020

👉This is the Final Nail in The Coffin for The German Economy -- The EU facing Implosion !!


👉This is the Final Nail in The Coffin for The German Economy -- The EU facing Implosion !!





The German Economy Faces Coronavirus Hit. Corona is already in Germany, and it is spreading very fast. There have been 66 confirmed cases, and a government crisis committee on Friday widened cross-border travel guidelines and canceled major international events. The German economy is nearing stagnation in the first quarter . As Export Orders Sink. Raising the risk of a German recession this year. Germany, as an export-reliant economy, has a large exposure to China and Italy; fears grow of second-stage effects. China is for the German economy a pivotal business partner. It is the first trading partner. That's why Germany has to fear that its exports to China. Italy is an almost as important economic partner. The German economy, Europe's biggest, has been weakening as its export-oriented manufacturers languish in a recession. There are fears the coronavirus outbreak could sink Germany into a recession, given the economy's reliance on exports and Chinese supply chains. The drop in sales for automobiles in China, for example, was 20 percent in February. Other industries such as the chemical industry, pharmaceutical industry, the electrical industry are all slowing down production. The German electrical industry, for example, gets 13 percent of its supply from China. The supply shock caused by closed towns and factories in China, and gradually elsewhere, will hit the export-oriented industrial machine. And a divided and disoriented government seems incapable of making the decisions that could cushion the blow. Companies in Germany are rushing to limit the impact of the spreading coronavirus epidemic, which is hitting an already weakened German economy, which has a particularly painful spot: the supply chains of its export-oriented manufacturers. Businesses learn now how fragile the global production system really is The Head of foreign trade at the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry Volker Treier held a conference on the effects of the coronavirus outbreak for the German economy at the Federal Press Conference in Berlin on Friday morning. Treier spoke about the consequences of the ongoing coronavirus outbreak for economic relations between Germany and the most affected country, China, as well as the most affected in Europe, Italy. "China is a relevant economic partner for the German economy: it is our number one trading partner in current times," he stated. He said he feared that German exports to China, following a 20 percent decline in automobile exports to China last month, would have suffered significantly in February. "​We are close to a recession. The danger of a recession cannot be eliminated at this moment, quite the contrary," he said. 2020 threatens to be the year of the flat economy. Bank of America analysts have already downgraded Germany’s growth prospects to 0.1% this year (from their previous 0.5% forecast), with the possibility of an outright recession in the first half. Should an epidemic break out in Germany, direct economic impacts must be expected alongside ripple effects. Welcome back to The Atlantis Report. Please take some time to subscribe to my two back up channels. I do upload videos there, too, on a daily basis. You'll find the links in the description box. Thank You. The German Economy was already faltering, then came the coronavirus. Germany's economy is nearing stagnation in the first quarter due to the coronavirus outbreak. The German industry would be particularly hit if the virus continued to spread worldwide. The ongoing spread of the coronavirus is expected to have a severe economic impact. Stock markets are falling, and experts reckon German exports and supply chains will be hit the hardest. The coronavirus outbreak's economic impact will be primarily through the sometimes drastic measures companies or governments take to prevent further spread, for example, travel restrictions or plant closures. International and export-oriented companies particularly suffer in this case. This outbreak as a game-changer for globalization because of how it exposes the vulnerability of international supply chains. The outbreak has revealed an irresponsible and unreasonable dependence on China. Global supply relationships, especially in healthcare and the car industry, need to be rethought. We cannot continue to be 80% to 85% dependent on China for active pharmaceutical ingredients, for example. The economic consequences of the coronavirus to be far more extreme than most people suspect, especially for economies like Germany. The auto industry, so important for Germany, was already in the midst of an existential crisis before this outbreak as a result of the US-China trade conflict, Brexit, and transformational technological changes in the sector. According to the German state-owned development bank KfW, the coronavirus outbreak will create further stagnation for Germany's already slowing economy. Due to the outbreak of the coronavirus in China, the stagnation should initially continue in the first half of the year, it said. If the coronavirus epidemic lasts longer and if other regions of the world are affected more severely, serious effects on foreign trade and the value chains to which the German industry is particularly exposed are more likely. What's more, the European Central Bank's monetary policy is already extremely loose, with negative interest rates and mass bond purchases under a "quantitative easing" scheme. With little room to maneuver in Frankfurt, eurozone governments are on the hook to stimulate flagging economic growth, especially in case of a potential hefty shock stemming from an unforeseen event like the virus. EUROPE'S biggest PROBLEM IS GERMANY. And THE CORONAVIRUS WILL BE the final nail in the coffin of THE GERMAN ECONOMY. THE MAIN COMPANIES OF THE COUNTRY EXPORT TO China FROM 15 TO 35% OF THEIR TURNOVERS. BERLIN HAS exploited for years the guaranteed devaluation of the Euro. BUT THE GAME IS ABOUT TO BREAK. Watch out next week for a market crash and bank credit freeze. Get your money out of the bank and into your own possession as fast as possible. An Italy out of the Euro could have frightened many, including France and Germany, who feared the priced exports in the lira. But Berlin has consciously managed globalization. It needed a depreciated Euro, so today it is in surplus towards all countries, except Russia from which it buys energy. It was a rational plan. It served Italy within the single currency precisely because it was weak. In exchange for this export advantage, Germany should have thought about the good of the Euro area as a whole. But it didn't. These are the words of the ex-minister Vincenzo Visco, in an interview of 2012. Even more than current. Everyone today, including Germany, is concerned about the economic consequences due to the spread of the coronavirus. Given that in Italy estimates, the decrease in GDP is already quantified within a range that goes from -1% to -3% per quarter from today until June. But at the bottom of it all is a big question mark. STRUCTURAL DEFECTS. Germany is a problem for the whole eurozone. And therefore for the whole world. And this is not so much because its banking system is not in good health. One hundred euros invested in the large listed banks in 1989 after 30 years are worth roughly 80 today. Or for the fall in industrial orders, which in February 2020 reached almost -9% per year. It has never been so bad since September 2009. Or the heavy repercussions on exports that Berlin will be forced to endure with the explosion of Covid-19. The main German corporations (from Bayer to Volkswagen; from Adidas to BMW), in fact, export significant portions of their turnover to China (from 15% to 35%) while Beijing records a drop in car sales of more than 90% compared to a year ago. No, it is not these clouds on the horizon that worry Germany as much as its successes. As real as they are unsustainable. With its nearly $ 270 billion in current account surplus estimated by the IMF for 2019, Berlin will almost double that of China expected to be just under $ 150 billion. With the not inconsiderable difference that in Germany, there are just over 80 million souls compared to almost 1.4 billion in China. That was the Magic of the Euro, which is nothing but an undervalued Mark. Germany, by sharing the same currency with intrinsically weaker countries such as Greece, Portugal, Spain, etc. lowers the value of the Euro. This was a formidable implicit subsidy to German manufacturing. Since without an undervalued Euro, The mark would be stronger by a good 10% -20% rendering the German exports less convenient. And the numbers certainly are confirming this, since from 1991 to 1999 Berlin totaled a trade surplus of 66 billion, while from 2000 to 2019 this cumulative figure exploded to the astronomical amount of 3,300 billion. And Germany continues to be a big problem even for Frau Angela Merkel, back from continuous election hitting in the various regional elections in the individual Länder. The question worth asking is why the chancellor continues to be punished by her electorate despite the undoubted advantages ensured to Germany by belonging to the eurozone. An electoral defeat after another. However, such as to have for some time forced Merkel to announce her farewell to the leadership of her party, the CDU. The Houshold CONSUMPTION is peaking. Numbers in their cruelty always give an answer. And observing the cold statistics of the EU Commission, it turns out that household consumption in 2001 amounted to 57% of GDP, compared to the current 53%. An economic development, that of Berlin, built on a pathological centrality of exports despite the most important component of internal consumption. The comparison with the United States is exemplary. A country where, in fact, household consumption reaches almost 70% of GDP. A country, the USA, which is, in fact, the number one customer of the world. The current account deficit reaches almost 540 billion. A figure that Americans can but don't want to afford any more. Although the balance of payments is so abnormally and steadily in red, the United States has the only undoubted privilege that no other state in the world has. They create dollars with which to honor purchases without fear from the inability to repay the debt contracted with the import since it is denominated in the US currency. And in any case, Donald Trump no longer wants to keep this priviledge because the systematic purchase of goods abroad, which often hides behind the relocation, ultimately leads to deindustrialization. Here too, the coronavirus does nothing but help it. Germany is on a completely different route, a supplier to the world rather than a customer. The wage deflation obtained with the various Hartz reforms has made German companies more competitive abroad. However, discharging their price on the standard of living of families, which therefore are certainly not better off than in 2001. To season it all, the usual lies lavished by the German media that continue to paint Europe in general - Greece and Italy in particular - as subsidized and supported by the German taxpayer, when instead they never receive a Euro from Germany. With this, condemning the eurozone to its inexorable implosion, with the utmost displeasure of the German Industry, which has built its success on the devalued mark disguised as a Euro. Germany’s economic resilience is crumbling. And the Coronavirus will only make things worse for Germany This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. Subscribe. And please take some time to subscribe to my two back up channels, I do upload videos there too on a daily basis. You'll find the links in the description box. Thank You.












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