70% Chance of Recession in the Next 6 Months -- Coronavirus to Collapse the Global Economy

A new study says there’s a 70% chance that a recession will occur in the next six months. There’s a 70% chance that a recession will hit in the next six months, according to this new research from the MIT Sloan School of Management and State Street Associates. The researchers created an index comprised of four factors and then used the Mahalanobis distance — a measure initially used to analyze human skulls — to determine how current market conditions compared to prior recessions. The global economy is already in the worst distress that we have seen since 2008, and it appears that the global slowdown is actually picking up pace as we have entered 2020. Banks create money from loans. The markets are high, but debts are even larger. The economy booms on borrowed money until you hit the Minsky Moment. The bankers have loaded our economy up with their debt products, but we’ve seen the Minsky Moment coming. Our economy is on the edge of the precipice, and the last thing we need is any more problems. The Banks were using stock gains to maintain liquidity, Powell wants to keep those banks afloat, ultimately stocks are just a part of that puzzle. I am still of the belief; the economy was toast in 2008, the last 11 years as a form of life support, pulling the plug is the decision that’s faced today. Trillions in debt to squeeze out a miserable 1.8% GDP growth. The juice ain't worth the squeeze. The US manufacturing weekly Hours index has been plunging since mid 2019 (now at some 40.40). And along comes the coronavirus. China did what everyone else did, but saw that their economy had filled up with the banker’s debt products before it crashed. China claiming everything is under control is ludicrous. The "official" numbers from China have said that the virus growth rate for the past ten or so days has been linear. At approximately 3 to 4000 cases per day. This has nothing to do with the growth rate of the virus and everything to do with test kit availability and the fact the testing labs are running at maximum capacity. If it's growing faster than they can test for it - it's out of control. In the last 24 hours, according to the World Health Organization, we had the most cases in a single day. The primary concern is not as much for the dead and dying, as it is for the millions of people not working, not out shopping and not traveling — kind of cold-hearted but true. China is clearly lying about this virus. They'd never shave a few points of their GDP for "the flu." Four hundred million people are now under lockdown. That's more than the entire population of the US. Lockeded down, people can't produce or consume. Let's say 25% of the 400 million under lockdown are working-age. That's 100 million people not going to work. China is an export and construction based economy with a mountain of debt. Regional Chinese banks were already collapsing pre-virus. China is now on the precipice. On top of its domestic problems, China has a big problem with its other largest trade partner. The EU is China's largest trading partner, and China is the EU's second-largest trade partner after the United States. However, the EU continues to slow down, as EU growth slowed to just +0.1% France’s economy contracts by 0.1% in the last quarter. Italy is shrinking by 0.3%. German industrial production fell for the fifth time in the last seven months. According to the OECD, the German economy is expected to grow by 0.4% in 2020 and 0.9% in 2021. German factory orders contracted 2.1% month-on-month. I cannot see a pathway towards China, reaching even recently reduced economic growth estimates for this year. I am stunned that ANY growth at all is predicted. There will be macro lessons a-plenty about how rolling debt, supply chain disruptions, and severe drops in demand for commodities all interact globally. This thing will explode worldwide when you think it's over. Coronavirus will succeed in destroying China, And the global economy. This whole event is quite fortuitous for Trump and the US. The realization of just how vulnerable Chinese supply lines are, coupled with the poor quality and theft of IP, will cause everyone left there to leave. China's January trade data, due to be released today, will be delayed until next month. The long-awaited Black Swan is here. When these clowns realize they can't convince us that we are heading toward imminent recession, they will instead assert that we are actually IN a recession. Mark my words. That's how desperate these mental patients have become. We are moving towards an economic Armageddon that will shake the world to its core. This observation is based on the fact the numbers simply don't work. Call it a multi-generational re-alignment if you wish, but in reality, it is the recognition that our path was an unsustainable illusion. The situation has become dire, and the numbers do not work. Borrowing money to pay the interest on past debt and Negative Interest Rates merely is not a prescription that leads to economic nirvana and bliss. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. Since 2008, China has been growing by adding more and more debt, but they can’t do that anymore as they have seen the Minsky Moment on the horizon. The last thing they needed was the coronavirus. Three provinces, 60 cities, and 400 million people are now facing China's most-strict level of lockdown, as Beijing struggles to contain the coronavirus outbreak as the virus has already spread to more than two dozen countries. That's more than 400 million people forcibly locked inside their homes. Shutting down growth means disrupted supply chains. This could end with starvation and sickness. Said differently, coronavirus is not the only way that coronavirus will kill. When you Quarantine 400 Million indefinitely in the highest manufacturing regions, you’re pretty much toast. The Financial Markets are about to get monkey hammered, and this time the Fed can do nothing. The dominos are going to start falling, and when they do, it’s going to go fast once the algo’s circuit breakers trip; It is a race to the bottom. Even Goldman Sachs expects coronavirus to whack as much as 2% from Global GDP in Q1, as a result of China's GDP growth sliding to 4% and, with China's economy now a quite material ~17% of the global economy. The collapse in economic contribution from Chinese tourism and trade. Not to mention crippled supply chains. It is now widely accepted that as China sneezes the world will be impacted. Regardless of the supply chain disruption in China, which is significant. How are you going to quarantine this if it breaks out in a city in Europe or America. Although in recent weeks, equity and bond markets gave up some of their gains as uncertainty about the economic effects of the coronavirus weighed on investors’ sentiment. The markets are still high; But debts are even higher. The banks are now getting direct injections on a daily basis via Fed repos. These idiots are printing billions a day, and it's going straight into the indexes. Powell has the balls even to say this when he and the rest of his whores are the ones jacking the markets. Since September 17, 2019, the New York Fed, with full awareness from Chairman Powell, has funneled more than $6.6 trillion in revolving loans to the trading houses of Wall Street with no vote in Congress and no disclosures as to what firms are receiving this money and why. The Federal Reserve continues to make the US elite super-rich richer and richer and even more powerful while the middle class worldwide gets poorer and poorer and disappears. The Scheme: or better known as 'the Ponzi Scheme.' The US elite super-rich is delighted with the Federal Reserve. Jamie Dimon knows exactly what he wants. JPMorgan Chase has been fingered as the bank that contributed to the Federal Reserve having to intervene in the overnight loan market on September 17 of 2019, and every business day ever since . The Fed, through its money spigot, the New York Fed, has flooded Wall Street’s trading houses with hundreds of billions of dollars weekly in cheap loans over the past three months. That cheap, pre-announced source of liquidity has not only caused the stock market to set multiple new historic highs but has caused the stock of JPMorgan Chase to set multiple new historic highs as well. Jamie Dimon the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase admitted on his quarterly earnings call with analysts that his bank had backed away from lending on September 17. That backing away contributed to the overnight lending rate spiking from an average of about 2 percent to 10 percent on September 17. That rate spike was used by the Federal Reserve to justify its interventions . The first of their kind since the financial crisis. Getting all their ducks/excuses in a row before things crash, it would appear. Priming the masses with their defense arguments for piling on debt instead of paying it down when they should have. When it all does come crashing down due to the unsustainable debt that never blinked while it kept rising. I wonder if Trump and his cronies will also remind people that the big idea of taking on that debt was Trump promised 4% + growth that would magically pay down the debt. How will they explain that they failed to achieve either of these things and instead, simply saddled the younger generations with mountains more in debt and decades of misery. Never let a crisis go to waste, always an excuse to devalue the peoples’ savings and prop up big government with artificially low-interest rates (soon to be negative). When borrowing stops , creating money stops. It's a fractional reserve system. A slow down refers to the speed at which money changes hands. QE money is cheap money loaned to connected institutions and parties that then loan out that money or so the story goes. Most of QE money is used to prop up an assets price by manipulating supply and demand. QE money never reaches the street; only the price increases that are symptomatic of supply and demand manipulation. Real loans need collateral, but derivatives and hypothecated commodities used as collateral mean the loans on which QE is based are really just liar loans. When Debt defaults, the money disappears. The joke of this whole financial thing is that Trump, the congress, the Fed, the big banks, and all of wall street know exactly what's coming . As the dollar continues its path into the dustbin of history, as the world is rejecting it more and more as each month goes by . Yet no one has the balls to speak the truth about where we are heading as a result of all of this printing ; which is now going vertical in the end game scenario. Look at quarantine numbers; 11 million last week (5 million escaped);400 million today; next weekend, 50% of China will be in quarantine. It looks like China will be forced to lock down the country this coming week, and the industry will stop. There's going to be mass starvation as food runs out. Other diseases will emerge as bodies overwhelm disposal . We are in uncharted waters. Data, charts, etc. mean fuckall anymore. There is no market, only printing, and the resultant bubble. When it pops is anyone's guess, but I'm willing to bet most will be insolvent by the time it does. Our call at The Atlantis Report remains that one should not expect a US recession ahead of presidential elections. After that The Greatest Depression and probably even World War 3. This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. And Subscribe. Thank You.














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