Wednesday, January 22, 2020
👉Palladium Rarer & More Expensive than Gold will see Skyrocketing Prices in 2020 !!
Palladium, a silvery-white metal used in cars and sometimes jewelry, has topped gold in commodities trading for the last few weeks. Gold was long the most valuable of precious metals, until, suddenly, it wasn't. When in 12/13/18, an obscure and far less sexy rival called Palladium swung ahead, for the first time in 16 years.After that, the metal continued to run. Palladium is a very rare metal - gold is twice as abundant. Total world production is only 208 tons a year. But the demand for Palladium is high and increasing. About 1/6 of the world’s production is used to make ceramic capacitors, and the remainder is used in catalytic converters - demand for both products is growing annually. Speculators have noticed, making Palladium an investment opportunity, and that always drives the price up. Palladium hits a new all-time record high after surging 9% in a week for its biggest weekly gain since 2001. Palladium soared over 9% and 50% for the year to power above the key $2,500 an ounce level for the first time , boosted by a chronic shortage of the precious metal and concerns of supply from major producers South Africa and Russia. South Africa, which produces two-fifths of the world’s mined Palladium, recently released data showing its output of platinum group metals including Palladium, fell 13.5% in November compared to the same month in 2018. The auto-catalyst metal was also pacing for its best week since December 2001, surging more than 16%. The performance of Palladium seen in recent months and its more than 50% gain in the last year is likely to be replicated by safe-haven gold in the coming months given the very uncertain macroeconomic, monetary and geopolitical backdrop. Goldman Sachs says Palladium may surge to test $3,000 before sliding back again. Palladium’s extraordinary rally has the potential for prices to go on and test $3,000 an ounce, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Jeffrey Currie, who twinned that outlook with a clear warning that such peaks wouldn’t last for long as the record levels would cut into demand. The bull market in Palladium caused by a chronic shortage of supplies has cost the global automotive industry US$18 billion over the past year, according to a new report by U.S. bank Citi. The price of the silvery-white metal has surged more than 80 percent over the past year as industrial consumers have scrambled to meet the demand for the critical ingredient in catalytic converters for gas and hybrid cars. Palladium is crucial for automotive catalytic converters. With diesel being stigmatized in the EU, there is less platinum used in this application, but nevertheless, people buy cars, and they run in gasoline; thus, the catalyst is predominately Palladium. On the supply side, the global market was benefiting from decades of stockpile sales from the USSR and later Russia. Those stocks are drying up. The mining site has been on the downturn for the past seven years due to underinvestment. As a result, we have a market that is in prolonged and systemic deficit. As there is no substitute readily available, the price will stay high. Since demand doesn't overlap with gold, there is nothing preventing Palladium from being at a premium to gold. Palladium seems to peak every 20 years, in a logarithmic manner. Every 20 years it is about 3 times the previous high. 1980, 2000, 2020. So will Palladium prices set to rise again in 2020? Welcome to The Atlantis Report. Due to incompetence and corruption, South Africa, the largest producer of Palladium, is suffering regular power cuts. The mines have been forced to shut down. Palladium, unlike gold and silver, has virtually no investors and no large reserves that can enter the market when prices are interesting. Almost all Palladium goes directly from producer to industry. The car industry uses most of the Palladium mined to make catalytic converters, and they NEED it. They can’t stop purchasing when prices are too high. They are probably at this moment re-tooling back to use platinum as they did in the past, but in the meantime, the cruel and inescapable laws of supply and demand dictate that prices will rise. Palladium demand has been high and growing for quite a long time, driven by growth in the emission control industry, which is driven in turn by growth in vehicle sales and increasingly stringent emission control standards. New standards are increasingly difficult to meet, and although technology developers are trying to reduce PGM (platinum, palladium, and rhodium) usage in these applications, there remains no other material which can contend with the high temperatures, thermal fluctuations, and overall difficult environment within a vehicle exhaust system, and do so with the durability required by these same standards. While it used to be true that Palladium was produced as a by-product of platinum, this is not entirely true anymore since it has such strong application in the automotive market, whereas platinum demand is much more elastic due to applications like jewelry. The draw-down of above-ground stocks built up historically in Russian nickel production is another factor supporting the high prices. It’s an amazingly interesting and intricate topic, encompassing microeconomics, macroeconomics, consumer preferences, engine technologies, fuel prices, regulation, and catalyst technology and having researched and modeled this topic for years. I have been closely monitoring palladium prices for the past several years. The reason is that a supply-driven collapse of the fractional reserve and digital derivative palladium market might draw attention to the equally-fraudulent gold and silver markets. The latest extension of this rally in Palladium renews our hope. The COMEX and LBMA manage the global market for Palladium in a manner identical to the global market for gold and silver. Existing stockpiles of physical metal are hypothecated, rehypothecated, leveraged, and leased to astronomical extremes. In fact, the palladium "market" is even more stretched than gold and silver. So if demand for physical Palladium continues to increase, an increasing amount of stress is placed upon the LBMA/COMEX pricing scheme. Understand that Palladium, just like gold and silver, is overseen by the bullion banks, which are responsible for physical delivery in London. There are OTC forwards, leases, and unallocated accounts. There are also futures that trade in New York. Through these processes, The Banks manage a fractional reserve system of just in time physical delivery. As gold and silver investors, we await the day when a "run" on these bullion banks exposes the lack of physical metal behind this system. The current price action in Palladium suggests the possibility that this "run" may have already begun. Although the prices of Palladium rose by almost 54% in 2019, the metal of the year can grow further according to experts. The precious metals sector experienced a good 2019, with a price increase in the last six months of the year. But of all the metals, there was one that did much better than the others. It's about Palladium. Palladium has grown by nearly 54% over the course of 12 months, driven by strong demand in the automotive sector. Indeed, vehicle manufacturers are increasingly in need of this metal for the catalytic converters of gas engines, which reduce polluting emissions. In addition, the market suffered from a reduction in supply. But let's take a closer look at what has happened and what is expected to happen . 2019 was an unforgettable year for Palladium. How extraordinary 2019 was for Palladium is clear from a fairly emblematic fact. For the first time in 16 years, Palladium has surpassed gold. In addition, at the end of December, prices reached a record high close to $ 2,000 per ounce.But in 2020, they went well beyond and currently reached $ 2,500. At the beginning of last year, Palladium was worth $ 1,254, but, fairly quickly, it gained momentum as supply declined, and car manufacturers' demand increased. A rally that brought the metal to $ 1,610 on March 21, then dropped to $ 1,282 in May and bounced back to $ 1,600 in July. After that, the metal continued to run, and on November 1st, it was over $ 1,800. On December 13, it reached its all-time high in 2019: $ 1,987. The strong interest of investors, supported by solid foundations of metal demand, was the main driver of prices. Furthermore, it should never be forgotten that this is a fairly small market, therefore with greater reactivity to purchases and sales. So what are the prospects for 2020? More growth. Many speculators got on the palladium train who didn't hope the prices went up. Now, although the trend remains bullish, entering the market carries a real risk of staying with the match lit in hand. There are also those who think that gas engines manufacturers could choose to change the metal, replacing Palladium with platinum, which is much cheaper. However, analysts agree that as long as the economy holds, Palladium will be able to maintain its earnings, but a global economic slowdown could affect the industrial use of gray metal, with catastrophic consequences for prices. In any case, the prevailing forecasts are those about other price increases during 2020, albeit at a slower pace than in recent years. Since investors are the driving factor in prices, they are unlikely to sell their metal, unless there is a significant deterioration in the fundamentals of supply and demand. Conversely, given the levels reached by Palladium, buyers will pursue prices less aggressively. By the way, Palladium is different from Rhodium and Platinum around the chemistry lab. They have some similarities, yes, they are all important as catalysts. But Palladium will do some things the others won't. Each of them has its uses. Palladium is today twice the price of platinum, although platinum is rarer and more effective in catalytic converters. And the reason is that Auto manufacturers, primarily abroad, switched to Palladium when producing catalytic converters for cars and trucks-, especially diesel. Once they incorporated palladium alloys at much lower prices. The price of Palladium was bid up to these astronomical levels. It will take a while for those manufacturers to switch back to platinum, but they may. I have read a few articles foretelling the decline in diesel engines, which contributed to platinum's soft demand as well. The rising price of Palladium has also led to some unexpected consequences. Police in London has warned car owners of the risk of thefts of catalytic converters . While Toyota, maker of the Prius hybrid car, has advised UK drivers to buy a “Catloc” device, which is fitted around the converter to stop it being cut out. Car sales are crashing globally while Palladium rockets straight up. What could possibly go wrong? Either Palladium and Rhodium are in a huge bubble .Note, these two metals cannot be shorted in the paper market. or; The paper suppressed Gold, Silver and Platinum markets are going to skyrocket upon the failure of a palladium delivery. This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. And Subscribe. Thank You.
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