Will Turkey become a Nuclear Power ? -- #WW3 - World War 3

Not allowed in the EU (no matter how much it wanted it).And treated like a third world country by the US . Now Turkey wants to align itself with Russia , and to be safe from the 'first strike' US policy , It wants nukes of it own ,and Russia will probably help to cement the deal. Erdogan wants to make Turkey a nuclear-armed state. "They say we can't have nuclear-tipped missiles, though some have them. This, I can't accept," Erdogan said in a September 4 speech . Rumor has it that like a lot of other regional powers, Turkey’s strategic community is seriously looking at the nuclear option as the poles of the world are shifting. Something that has raised eyebrows worldwide is the recent visit of a Turkish delegation to Pakistan’s Khuzdar nuclear facility. Now, Turkish personnel have traditionally trained at Pakistan’s PINSTECH labs and other nuclear facilities, albeit very very discreetly. Weary eyes of several intelligence agencies have always kept an eye on such collaborations but for some reason Pakistan seems to get away with a lot of transgressions that would get other countries sanctioned. When the whole world has concentrated for years on the nuclear ambitions of Iran, North Korea and partially Saudi Arabia, Turkey has silently hidden itself professionally under the table of the trustworthy partners with no intentions to do so. But some of the intelligence agencies and experts are speaking about this issue for years in their analysis papers which were mostly ignored by the rest of the World. I’m taking here a few parts from the analysis by Hans Rühle, the German international security expert: ‘’Turkey’s motives for rejecting the continuous uranium supply by its Russian and Japanese-French business partners may appear dubious; its rejection to return the spent fuel rods to the supplying countries is outright disastrous, as it allows for only one conclusion: Turkey is bent on producing plutonium for making weapons. While reprocessing would indeed allow the reuse of the spent uranium, such an option is merely theoretical, since fuel rods made from reprocessed material are far more expensive than those made from “new” uranium. It is for this reason that reprocessing of spent uranium is hardly being conducted anymore.’’ ‘’The assumption that Turkey is aiming for nuclear weapons is also supported by the country’s activities towards creating the entire nuclear fuel cycle. As has been revealed by a well-connected information service, German intelligence reported that as far back as May 2010, Prime Minister Erdogan had demanded to secretly start preparing for the construction of sites to enrich uranium. Accordingly, Turkey has started to produce Yellowcake, a chemically compressed uranium ore. Yellowcake is converted to gas, which is then enriched in centrifuges. To date, nothing is publicly known about a conversion plant in Turkey, yet according to the BND, Turkey is already in possession of enriched uranium originating from a former Soviet republic and smuggled via Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina with the help of the Mafia. It would not come as a surprise if Turkey already had centrifuges to enrich uranium. After all, Turkey was involved in the activities of Pakistani nuclear smuggler Abdul Qadeer Khan, who between 1987 and 2002 sold thousands of centrifuges to Iran, North Korea and Libya. The electronics of these centrifuges came from Turkey. Khan had even contemplated moving his entire illegal production capacity of centrifuges to Turkey. In 1998, then Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif offered Turkey a “nuclear partnership” on nuclear research. Moreover, there is still an organic partnership between both countries dating back to Turkey’s support for Pakistan’s nuclear program. Back then, many of the components that Pakistan could not acquire openly were shipped via Turkey to Pakistan. With this backdrop, it does not come as a surprise when intelligence services report that to this day there is a dynamic scientific exchange between both countries. The question of whether Turkey already has centrifuges and where they may have come from can probably be answered without the recourse to any revelations by intelligence services. At the same time, this might help solve one of the last enigmas of the history of nuclear proliferation: the search for the “fourth customer” of Abdul Qadeer Khan. In mid-2003, a shipment of centrifuge parts and tools intended for Libya “disappeared” during a journey from Malaysia via Dubai to Tripoli. It had been ordered—and probably already paid for—by President Gaddafi as part of a major deal on 10,000 centrifuges intended to turn Libya into a nuclear power. The sender of the shipment was Abdul Qadeer Khan, who had ordered a company in Malaysia to buy the components from all over the world and ship them to Libya. The enigma about the “fourth customer,” who appears to work on a nuclear option with utmost secrecy, has never been solved, even though a resolution appears to become ever more urgent. If one compares Pakistan’s production volumes with the production that Khan sold to his three customers beyond Pakistan’s own national needs, one finds considerable discrepancies. In other words, the “fourth customer” has received much more from Khan than just the one shipment originally intended for Libya. Khan, however, remains silent. Considering that, according to intelligence sources, Turkey is in possession of a considerable number of centrifuges of unknown origin, and considering that Khan, shortly before he was put under house arrest, had traveled to Turkey, the conclusion that Turkey is the fourth customer does not appear far-fetched.’ According to same intelligence reports Turkey is already for long in posses of the needed enriched uranium or short before to get it. That’s why in contrast to others, Turkey’s only concern is more to work on long range delivery systems nowadays with huge spending on it, rather than speaking about any nuclear ambitions, whereas in all other cases it was the opposite that the countries got first the bomb and then worked more for the missile delivery systems, because ranges above 1.000 km’s have no more the accuracy to conduct standard TNT inside and getting useful results without nuclear warheads. Turkey on paper does not possess nuclear warheads. It does not have a nuclear weapons programme either because it joined NATO just after the Soviet Union developed its own atomic bomb. Turkey has stayed under NATO nuclear umbrella since 1951 with the member states USA, France and Britain manufacturing nuclear and thermonuclear weapons. The first missiles deployed were the Jupiters in Cigli, Izmir in Turkey. However there is a story that is often told in Turkey which I heard several times from people who had insight and connections. The story goes that during the Cuban Missile Crisis, when Khrushchev demanded that in return for removing nukes from Cuba the USA must remove the PGM-19 Jupiter missiles stationed in Turkey. USA agreed to that . But this time it had to deal with protests from Ankara. Many believe in Turkey, Kennedy to calm down its key ally, which not only housed strategic air bases but also vast majority of signals intelligence from Soviet Union, agreed to leave a handful under Turkish control. There is also another story, not as widespread as the previous, that during the collapse of the USSR, Turkey managed to get a few during the chaos. There are also Pakistani anecdotes from the time of Gen. Zia whom the Turkish president referred simply as “my brother”. In fact, relations between Turkey and nuclear Pakistan had been so friendly all along, with every Pakistani leader with every Turkish one, a Turkish nuclear programme can be a waste of time and resources. Always supporting Turkey in its hardest time even before its conception (Turks fought against western invasion in 1920s with Indian Muslim finance) no Pakistani leader would deny a Turkish president asking one or two spare mushroom makers. All three stories can be just stories or all three can be true. I wouldn’t know. But whenever you raise nuclear programme elders in Turkey give you the “he doesn’t know?” smirk. In any case there are no fixed position nuclear missiles in Turkey since the Cuban Missile Crisis but the NATO bases have nuclear weapons stationed in Turkey under Turkish command. Incirlik NATO base, under Turkish Air Force command, at this moment has ready B-2 stealth bombers that are loaded with B-61 Model-11 tactical nuclear warheads. The stockpile can also be fitted on the common USAF or Turkish F-16s. Regarding consciousness of a nuclear attack, Turks are typically “we are Turkish, nothing happens to us” behaviour. I have never heard by anybody even during the height of the Cold War any fear of nukes despite that Turkey was one of the most obvious and nearest target of Soviet missiles with so many NATO strategic air bases and signals-listening stations. Today only a few of the tens of bases continue in Turkey. The general attitude of the Turks on this matter are reminiscent of the joint reaction of President Kenan Evren and Minister Cahit Aral, posing on television in radiation infected tea growing areas of Rize during the Chernobyl crisis drinking glasses of Turkish tea and informing the nation, tongue in cheek, “radiation is healthy taken in moderate amounts” as it was especially “good for the bones”. Prime Minister Ozal furthered the dark humour with “radioactive tea tastes better”. In Conclusion : Turkey has hosted American nuclear weapons so there have been nuclear weapons on Turkish soil. And I guess there’s the possibility of Turkey’s having obtained weapons from another nuclear-armed state - and that they’ve kept this a close secret. But as far as developing their own nuclear weapons, it seems unlikely. Turkey is a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which prohibits them from developing nuclear weapons. This carries with it the requirement to accede to periodic inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) - some inspections are announced and some are not. In order for Turkey to make its own nuclear weapons they would have to have a source of highly enriched uranium or a way to manufacture plutonium - or a way to obtain one or both of these. Enriching uranium is expensive and takes up a lot of real estate - not to mention sucking up a lot of energy. It’s hard to hide. Making plutonium is even more challenging - the plutonium is created in a nuclear reactor and then chemically separated from the spent fuel in large chemical processing facilities. This is also hard to hide - I’m tempted to say that it would be hard to do without the IAEA figuring it out. Not saying it’s impossible - but not a simple task. Finally, one can’t simply slap a few chunks of uranium or plutonium together and know that there will be an explosion - this is why these designs are tested. To the best of my knowledge, nobody has detected either the seismic signature, the gamma-ray “flash,” or the radioactive signature of a Turkish nuclear test. Is it possible that Turkey has managed to obtain a working nuclear weapon or (at least) the fissionable material to make one? Well…possibly. But not sure how likely it is.






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