Sunday, September 22, 2019

Will Robots take our Jobs?









Today AI and robots are causing a lot of controversial discussions. A lot of tech experts believe that artificial intelligence has the potential to change the world. But at the same time, those same experts don’t agree on what kind of an impact this changes will have on the average person. Many believe that people will be much better off with the help of advanced AI systems, while others think it will lead to our inevitable downfall. Machines have taken most jobs from 200 years ago. We used to have 70% of the population working in agriculture, it’s now around 1.5%. Since then we’ve further industrialized society so that more and more of our manufacturing sector is automated. So why is it that this time is different. Our ability to create intelligent machines isn’t just increasing. It’s increasing as an exponential function. In the next decade we will have the power of a human mind available in a computer, in the next two decades it will cost less than $1000. Sometime after that (within another decade, sometime prior to 2046) machines will learn to code better than 90% of humans that can code. Programming is only a temporary safe haven. Another half decade after that and all programming will be done by machine. In 35–45 years we’ll have a machine that is “smart” as all humans, there is effectively no difference between a machine with the computational ability of all humans costing a billion dollars or a thousand dollars, it’s only important that it exist. The timeline at which machines will begin to replace human labor is collapsing. The spread of technology is currently limited by shipping and manufacturing constraints, over time we’ll see additive manufacture and robotics take on more and more complex tasks until it’s a matter of describing what physical thing you want to a machine, supplying elemental resources and waiting for it to be built. So I believe we’re a few decades away from jobs being an odd idea, yet culturally jobs are front and center in our lives, we “make a living” at them, they consume our time and energy. In 40 years I think we’ll look at our current society as absurdly materialistic in the same way we look at medieval serfs now. A combination of asteroid mining (to make rare materials common) and nanotechnology , to make common materials into anything we use, will eliminate materialism as we currently understand it, and make it look as absurd as Feudalism looks to those of us lucky enough to be born in the first world it might take another 5–10 years to encompass the world. Doctors, teachers, coders, pets, and CEOs, all will be replaced by robots. What’s so sad about that . Technology is created to serve humanity in a better way, and not to make sure that people keep their jobs. We should not pause on making technological progress just because we are afraid that someone might lose their job. Jobs were never secure anyway. Around 200 years ago, over 80% of the employable population in the US was in agricultural work, and now that number has been reduced to well under 5%. Technology has replaced jobs, and did everything faster and much more efficiently than humans, reduced most of the drudgery and danger of manual labor. Do you think all those farmers went unemployed . If machines produce everything we need, the outcome will depend on how things are distributed. Everyone can enjoy a life of luxurious leisure if the machine-produced wealth is shared, or most people can end up miserably poor if the machine-owners successfully lobby against wealth redistribution. So far, the trend seems to be toward the second option, with technology driving ever-increasing inequality. Three of the world's 10 largest employers are now replacing their workers with robots . No one should ever work. Work is the source of nearly all the misery in the world. Almost any evil you'd care to name comes from working or from living in a world designed for work. In order to stop suffering, we have to stop working . “Work Is Worship” is no longer true and our addiction to work is pathological. Its time to look at success, life and career differently . Finally humanity can be freed from the grind of work obligations. So what's the problem. Let's make sure everyone shares in this common legacy of humanity. People will figure out how to use their free time. Some will work in an artisan; others will devote themselves to sports and physical culture, etc. Only monetarists and others with money fetish will fret. they can scrounge around for pennies.












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