This is why a Global Recession is Coming before the 2020 Presidential Elections

Investors across the board have grown increasingly worried that a recession is on the horizon. A survey last month found that more than 70% of economists think a recession will hit the US by the end of 2021, the Federal Reserve has signaled further rate cuts, and the inverted yield curve has flashed multiple warning signs about the state of the economy. According to a new Bank of America survey, recession fears have jumped to all-time highs. A Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) survey of United States credit investors found that the perceived probability of a recession in the next year spiked to 25%, its highest reading. BAML’s survey found that recession risk is now the third-biggest concern for credit investors over geopolitical risk, just behind trade and China. It exceeded the record reached in July 2016 and marked an increase of 5 percentage points from last month’s survey. As far as the credit markets are concerned, investors are generally seeking higher-rated debt in the investment-grade and high-yield markets, BAML found. This means shunning the BBB-rated part of the debt market, which sits one step above junk status. Experts have been increasingly sounding the alarm on the group as it swells in size. “In fairly dramatic fashion, high-grade investor sentiment on BBBs has soured to the point where only 33% expect outperformance on a risk-adjusted basis, down from 58% in July,” the team wrote. Corporate debt is a big concern, as so many businesses struggle with being overleveraged. In addition, high-yield cash levels are “off the charts,” the strategists wrote. More than half of high-yield investors reported having above-normal cash levels, up from 35% in July and marking the highest reading since April 2011. From its side JPMorgan predicts the next financial crisis will strike in 2020 . JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic has previously concluded that the big shift away from actively managed investing . “The recession’s duration is a powerful drag on returns, which should dovetail with some readers’ concerns that policy makers lack the necessary monetary and fiscal space to extract economies from the next recession,” they wrote. A decade after the collapse of Lehman Brothers sparked a plunge in markets and a raft of emergency measures, strategists at the bank have created a model aimed at gauging the timing and severity of the next financial crisis. And they reckon investors should pencil it in for 2020." In 2018 J P Morgan said " pencil in recession"... Pretty damn confident ... How did they know???? The truth is The recession/depression of 2008 never ended. They papered it over. As many of us predicted, they are going to hand the flaming bag of crap to Trump in order to usher in more big government, more socialism, etc. The only real question is why Trump took ownership of the flaming bag. He literally called it a big fat ugly bubble as a candidate.












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