No-Deal Brexit Explained

Brexit is one of the biggest political issues in the UK at the moment, with something called 'no-deal Brexit' making a lot of headlines. The UK is due to leave the EU on 31 October. The current withdrawal deal has been rejected three times in parliament. The government wants to renegotiate the current deal but says if this isn't possible the UK will leave on World Trade Organization rules. So what happens in a no-deal Brexit? Will the UK grind to a halt? What about food supplies, medicine, airports and fuel? We take a look at exactly how a no-deal Brexit will affect Britain. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said he will take the UK out of the EU on October 31st - no matter what. He says his priority is to get a deal with the European Union, but if that fails, Britain will leave regardless. But many people say this could lead to food and medicine shortages, cause mayhem for planes flying to and from Europe, cause huge traffic queues across the south east of England and disrupt the UK's ports - especially Dover. In a no-deal scenario, the UK would immediately leave the European Union (EU) with no agreement about the "divorce" process. Overnight, the UK would leave the single market and customs union - arrangements designed to help trade between EU members by eliminating checks and tariffs (taxes on imports). No deal also means immediately leaving EU institutions such as the European Court of Justice and Europol, its law enforcement body. Membership of dozens of EU bodies that govern rules on everything from medicines to trade marks would end. And the UK would no longer contribute to the EU budget - currently about £9bn a year. Under former Prime Minister Theresa May's deal - which was voted down three times by Parliament - the UK would have entered a 21-month transition period. This would have provided some breathing space, maintaining much of the status quo, while the two sides tried to negotiate a trade deal. After Theresa May's deal was defeated, the Brexit deadline was extended to 31 October. To avoid a no-deal Brexit on this date, the UK government must pass a Brexit divorce plan into law, obtain another extension from the EU, or cancel Brexit. Many politicians are against no deal and Parliament has passed a law that could keep the UK in the EU until the new year. Opponents of no deal say it will damage the economy and lead to border posts between Northern Ireland and the Republic. But some politicians support no deal and say any disruption could be quickly overcome. Under a no-deal Brexit, there would be no time to bring in a UK-EU trade deal. Trade would initially have to be on terms set by the World Trade Organization (WTO), an agency with 162 member countries. If this happens, tariffs - taxes on imports - will apply to most goods UK businesses send to the EU. Some companies worry that could make their goods less competitive. The UK government has already said most tariffs will be abolished for EU goods coming to the UK, if there is no deal. But the EU doesn't have to do the same. Trading on WTO terms would also mean border checks for goods, which could cause bottlenecks at ports, such as Dover. No deal would also mean the UK service industry would lose its guaranteed access to the EU single market. That would affect everything from banking and insurance to lawyers, musicians and chefs. What about the Irish border? No-one really knows what will happen at the Irish border under no deal. The "backstop" - the "insurance policy" in the deal to stop border posts on the Irish border - would no longer exist. No-deal supporters say technological solutions could maintain an invisible border. But EU law says physical border checks would still be needed on some goods, such as food and chemicals. However, neither the UK or Irish governments have so far said they would be willing to install border posts. What will happen in a no-deal Brexit? It's believed a no-deal Brexit could lead to a number of things happening. For example: #1 .Some border checks could be re-introduced . #2 .Transport and trade between the UK and the EU could be severely affected . #3 .Adults may not be able to drive in EU countries without a special driving licence . #4 .It could cost more money to use your phone abroad in EU countries . #5 .It would mean no transition period, which was part of the deal that the former Prime Minister Theresa May was proposing, which was rejected by MPs . What does it mean for individuals? Individuals could be affected in all sorts of ways. For example, if a no deal disrupted cross-Channel trade, some food prices could rise - a possibility highlighted by a government assessment. EU citizens in the UK can apply for settled status, allowing them to remain even if there is a no deal. UK expats in the EU are advised to register as residents of the country they live in, although no deal could make moving across borders more difficult. Mobile phone roaming charges could return - although some operators have already ruled this out. Travelling with pets will become more complicated and expensive. And European Health Insurance Cards (EHIC) would be invalid after a no-deal Brexit. Most economists and business groups believe no deal would lead to economic harm. For example, the Office for Budget Responsibility - which provides independent analysis of the UK's public finances - believes a no-deal Brexit would cause a UK recession. To cushion some of the impact, the government is looking at what might happen in a worst-case no-deal scenario. This includes: border delays . increased immigration checks . less food available . possible price increases for utilities, food and fuel . Mr Johnson has said that he would like to have a deal but that he is willing to take the UK out of the EU without a deal on 31 October, if a suitable one cannot be agreed. But in September MPs passed a law that would force the prime minister to ask the EU for an extension to the 31 October deadline if a deal was not agreed by 19 October. If this happens, all 27 countries which are part of the EU club must agree to the extension. If they do not ALL agree, the UK will leave without a deal. A lot of companies have said they are worried about not knowing exactly how their businesses will work if there is a no-deal Brexit at the end of October. For example, food companies have asked the government to allow them to be able to make special agreements with companies in EU countries if a no-deal Brexit happens. But as things stand at the moment, they wouldn't be allowed to do this. A lot of people in Parliament don't want a no-deal Brexit to happen, but it's a possible outcome if politicians can't agree on what should happen next, or if the EU and the UK can't agree on what their relationship should be like. But others think that a no-deal Brexit would give the UK the freedom it wants from the EU - one of the reasons that many people voted for Brexit in the first place. Many say that those against no-deal Brexit are exaggerating problems that could happen as a result of it, and that a no-deal Brexit isn't as bad as some people are making out that it would be.







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