US vs. China Trade War -- Who Wins ??

China exports about 4 times as much to the US as the US exports to China. Chinese exports to the US this year are already well below last years level and with 3 more batches of tariffs on the way they will drop even more. This weekend 15% tariffs hit on $100,150 billion in consumer goods. In a month over $200 billion in goods will have their tariffs increased from 25% to 30%. That 25% rate has only been in effect for a few months. Before that it was mostly 10% Then in December another $100 ,150 billion plus worth of goods will also see 15% tariffs. If next months trade talks go badly, Trump will probably blow his top yet again and slap on even more tariffs - probably for November. Tariffs rates could go up in each of the 4 months left to this year - they are already scheduled to go up in 3 of the 4. “I think that Trump to his credit has understood better than many of his critics as he realized back in 2015 , 2016 that China was not only essentially wiping out much of US manufacturing industry, but now becoming a global economic hegemony with creation of various international economic institutions and through its initiatives like ‘Belt and Road’ initiative; it is rivaling the United States as an economic and financial power. So the United States has now much less leverage in the world that it used to,” China didn't do anything to our manufacturing. That was all the handiwork of very greedy corporations who didn't give a rat's ass about the American worker. US outsourcing was all the rage in the late 1990s and early 2000s, which gutted the US manufacturing sector giving Americans low quality products at substantially reduced prices due to American exploitation of foreign workers. US companies also couldn't wait to import foreign workers so it could substantially reduce its American worker base. China and other countries merely took advantage of vapid American corporate\political stupidity. on the other hand . I hear so many commentators and analysts pointing to China's "unfair trade advantage" and that "Trump has a point" when it comes to this "unfair trade advantage". But why does no one ever mention the ubiquitously-powerful and far more unfair advantages enjoyed by America for example, from its "Petrodollar" and SWIFT China did not wipe out US manufacturing. It was a direct result of off-shoring by US manufacturers in the 1990s. Their idea was to ship manufacturing to China where labor was dirt cheap and thus increase their profits as they got increasingly greedier. President Clinton also signed NAFTA into law which also gutted american jobs. China trades with the world. China is the economic hub of the world. Trump has a trade war with China yet China does not have a trade war with rest of the world. China wins while US companies suffer. The trade war is actually making the US weaker and China stronger. Chinese people will be buying Chinese and Asian brands NOT US brands. China is not as reliant on trade as Trump thinks . Trump said it would be “so easy to win the trade war he started with China in 2018 . You just have to check the U.S. Trade Deficit data at the U.S. Department of Commerce to understand that he is losing big time . Before Trump took office, the all-time worst monthly trade deficit the U.S. ever had was $76 billion in July 2008, in the depths of the financial crisis. Since Trump took office, we’ve now broken that monthly record FIVE TIMES. Not only that, but Trump had to pay American farmers $12 billion out of the U.S. Treasury last year to make up for lost revenue. This year it will almost certainly be more than $15 billion. Farm debt is now higher than it has been in decades. This is how things spiral out of control .The government implements a poorly thought-out strategy, without investing in the proper tactics and weapons, based on false or ideologically biased intelligence, which is then hyped ad nauseum by the commercial media, and then wastes billions of your tax dollars to compensate for the idiotic mistakes. China stopped buying US soybeans and cancelled orders for 1 million tons. Then they eliminated tariffs on soybeans from their neighbors, and increased purchases from Brazil and Canada. That’s a loss of $14 billion — and about 1/3 of their sales — for American farmers. Trump’s 25% tariffs on Chinese steel remain in place, but steel prices in the US have gone up 40% just since the beginning of the year. Americans now pay 50% more for steel than the Chinese. Good luck competing with input prices like that. The list goes on, but it’s the strategy that’s important. In his usual impetuous style, Trump slapped heavy tariffs on everything and everyone. As a result, China, Japan, Canada and the EU are now working together to defeat the Bully. For its part, China has applied tariffs selectively, to products they know they can source elsewhere, and aiming at items produced in swing states. They have a strategy, whereas Trump just has a grudge. Not only is Trump losing the game, he’s losing a game in which he is the only player and he is making up the rules. In 2013, Trump tweeted “Our trade deficit is still on pace to be over $500 Billion . This is killing our manufacturing sector and sending jobs overseas.” Evidently, trade deficits are only bad when Obama is President. Now they are up more than 75%. It honestly appears that Trump hasn’t the foggiest idea how trade and tariffs work, let alone how to build the strong trading partnerships necessary for prosperity. Apparently he believes that his tariffs are pumping billions of dollars from the Chinese Treasury into the U.S. Treasury. Nope. Those tariffs are paid by the American companies who import those goods, and consumers therefore pay higher prices. If Trump were actually serious about defending American interests with China, he would not have quit the Trans-Pacific Partnership. In his petty rush to overturn everything that Obama did, regardless of American interests, he undermined much of the leverage the U.S. had in the Asian trading markets. The TPP makes the rules for about 40% of world trade. Trump’s plan, apparently, is to quit the game, then try to “win” by throwing rocks at the players on the field. That’s not how a smart negotiator behaves. Meanwhile, our Treasury is in shambles. Because of the Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, which turned out to be an enormous wealth redistribution from the working class to the wealthiest Americans and which did not boost job gains even slightly , the federal budget deficit is now over 4.6% of our GDP for the FIRST TIME IN HISTORY when we are not in the middle or immediate aftermath of a deep recession. You can think of debt-to-GDP ratio as the “deadbeat” index. It’s a measure of our inability or unwillingness to pay our bills. During a recession, it rises because GDP collapses, usually temporarily. What’s the excuse now ! In ordinary times, real Republicans would consider that the height of fiscal negligence. But I guess it’s Hillary’s fault. If anything like this were actually happening under Clinton, the Republicans would blame “liberal tax-and-spend lunacy” or “socialism.” But with Trump, they are playing tennis without the net. If the Republicans are in charge, runaway debt is perfectly fine. Trump being Trump, there is no doubt that he will eventually declare victory no matter how badly he botches this thing. But you can be even more certain that it could have been done much more intelligently, much more quickly, and MUCH more cheaply. And with at least a shred of worldwide respect. So who do you think is winning this trade war between China and America ? let us know your opinion in the comment section below . thank you







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