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Geopolitical analysis 2017: Europe

 Western Europe has an important year ahead. Many EU member states will hold elections and carry out crucial political reforms. The Union will be tested from within by nationalist and populist forces. From without, factors such as immigration, security, and even the return of hundreds of radicals will create much anxiety in Europe.

Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.

I am scared about what is happening here in Europe. Maybe you don't read much history, but I do, and Europeans have been killing each other for millennia before the post WW2 period and the EU. Last time we saw nationalism on the rise in Europe, bad things happened. A particular dude with a weird mustache was involved.

Western Europe has an important here 0:02 ahead many EU member states will hold 0:05 elections and carry out crucial 0:07 political reforms the union will be 0:09 tested from within by nationalists and 0:11 populist forces from without factors 0:14 such as immigration security and even 0:16 the return of hundreds of former isis 0:18 members will create much anxiety in 0:21 Europe in part one of the analysis we 0:24 will go over the challenges that Western 0:26 Europe faces in 2017 the next episode 0:29 will focus on Eastern Europe and Russia 0:32 my name is Sherman and welcome to 0:34 caspian report if you want to help our 0:36 channel to produce more original content 0:38 like this please check out our 0:40 fundraising page at / kappa 0:43 p.m. report as explained in the Middle 0:46 East report the gradual decline of Isis 0:48 in Syria and Iraq will force therefore 0:50 members to return to their European host 0:53 patient's harboring violent intentions 0:55 for instance in 2016 more than 200 0:59 radical fighters returned from the 1:01 Middle East to the United Kingdom alone 1:03 in 2017 the number of returning jihadist 1:07 will exceed that of the previous year as 1:10 a countermeasure European intelligence 1:12 services will boost their efforts to 1:14 deal with the increased security threats 1:16 certainly many plots will be unfolded 1:19 however complete security cannot be 1:21 guaranteed it's inevitable that many 1:24 attacks will slip through the cracks as 1:26 a result in 2017 we will see a 1:29 continuation if not a search of 1:31 terrorist attacks in Western Europe 1:34 moreover these attacks will come at a 1:36 crucial time many European states are 1:39 scheduled to hold elections or past 1:41 reforms over the course of the year for 1:44 terrorist cells 2017 will be the 1:47 ultimate opportunity to exploit these 1:49 fault lines radical groups will use 1:52 terrorism 250 public agenda and shift 1:55 the political polls the objective of 1:57 these attacks is not to cause physical 1:59 damage but to polarize european 2:02 societies as well as isolate European 2:04 Muslims which will then contribute to 2:06 the recruitment of additional radical 2:09 fighters other than security threats 2:11 Western Europe 2:13 pieces and abundance of internal 2:15 complications 2:16 one example is breakfast with the 2:18 approval of the Parliament the British 2:20 leadership will implement article 50 of 2:23 the lisbon treaty in the spring of 2017 2:25 by activating the article of the UK will 2:29 begin a two-year departure course led by 2:31 the european commission 2:33 however the activation of article 50 2:35 will shake governmental policy every 2:38 detail about the xbox will be met with 2:41 opposition of a dilemma concerning 2:43 breakfast will continue to play out in 2:45 2018 and even 2019 but in 2017 as 2:50 article 50 is activated the harsh 2:53 realities of breakfast was practicing 2:55 him the level of uncertainty will 2:57 culminate in a rican national currency 3:00 and lower economic growth long as 3:02 primary objective will be to include as 3:05 many goods and services as possible in 3:07 its milk free trade agreement with 3:09 Russell's a possible outcome is that the 3:12 UK agrees to enter the e use customs 3:16 union this is a trade bloc which imposes 3:18 a common external tariff on all goods 3:21 entering the Union another showdown 3:23 between Pro and anti brexit camps will 3:26 occur there in the vote on the great 3:28 repeal bill somewhere in the summer 3:30 British lawmakers will debate whether to 3:33 instantly abolish the 1972 european 3:36 communities act which gives the laws of 3:39 the EU legal supremacy in the UK 3:42 meanwhile in France the nation will be 3:44 preoccupied with the presidential 3:46 elections scheduled for April and May 3:49 most of the candidates share a similar 3:52 policy on security and immigration and 3:55 nearly every major political party will 3:58 criticize the EU and the socialist 4:00 government the candidate disagree 4:02 however on economic policy therefore 4:05 french voters will essentially choose 4:07 whether they prefer protectionism or 4:10 free market economy among the main 4:12 contenders is left end of the National 4:14 Front her approval ratings have sharply 4:17 risen in the past few years mostly due 4:20 to her tough stance on immigration and 4:22 security another major contender 4:25 salon of the centre-right Republican 4:27 Party he served as the prime minister of 4:29 france under the sarkozy administration 4:32 in all likelihood alone will coordinate 4:35 the moderate voters against the pen and 4:38 seek to secure a victory 4:40 still even in defeat depends 4:42 anti-globalization and nationalist 4:45 sentiment will only strengthen 4:46 international 17 in Italy the 4:50 resignation of Prime Minister ng has 4:52 enabled new general elections which are 4:54 scheduled for 2018 however a major 4:57 political reform will take place in 2017 5:01 of the Constitutional Court of Italy is 5:03 most likely to approve a new legislation 5:06 to reform the electoral law which will 5:08 introduce a proportional electoral 5:10 system the new electrical system will 5:13 force political parties to form 5:15 coalition's insurance however the 5:18 changes are meant to reduce the 5:19 influence of Italy's Euroskeptic 5:21 political party the five star movement 5:24 to the north in the kingdom of the 5:26 Netherlands Dutch politicians will also 5:29 prepare for new general elections in 5:31 March although small in size the country 5:34 is one of the wealthiest members of the 5:36 EU yet 5:37 like most of Europe nationalist and 5:40 Europe skeptic forces will play a major 5:42 role in the voting process will serve 5:45 the leader of the party for freedom is 5:47 leading in the polls 5:49 however centrist the Dutch political 5:51 forces are likely to form coalition's in 5:54 an effort to prevent willders from 5:56 ascending to power but to accommodate 5:59 the coalition government and the Dutch 6:01 centrist forces are likely to refute the 6:04 authority of the European Commission 6:05 germany is another core EU member that 6:09 the hold elections in 2017 6:11 however the German parliamentary 6:13 elections are scheduled for September 6:15 and october which means that the outcome 6:17 of the elections will mostly depend on 6:19 the outcome of the French elections and 6:22 italian reforms of moderates remaining 6:24 control in Paris and Rome have been 6:27 Berlin will mostly focus on immigration 6:29 and security 6:30 however if nationalist parties will be 6:33 neighboring elections and then the 6:35 german elections will react 6:37 focus on damage control since the German 6:40 economy out stress the German people's 6:42 ability to consume the economy is 6:45 export-driven at least half of the 6:47 german gdp comes from exports and about 6:50 half of the exports are designated for 6:52 other EU members 6:54 furthermore many of the EU regulations 6:57 are designed to facilitate expert 6:59 dependency in other words Germany needs 7:02 the european union without the e use 7:05 free trade zone the country will face an 7:08 economic crisis as well as increased 7:10 social and political tensions Germany's 7:13 dependency on the European regulations 7:15 will determine Chancellor miracles 7:18 reaction to neighboring france and italy 7:20 if somehow the National Front and Paris 7:23 or the five star movement enrolled 7:25 prevails the german elections will focus 7:28 on finances stimulus packages national 7:31 currencies trade regulations and 7:33 basically start preparing the country 7:35 for a post Union environment 7:38 the thing is the moment of the national 7:40 forces gain power in France or Italy 7:43 they would organize referendums believe 7:45 the eurozone such a referendum would 7:48 even need to succeed the mirror 7:51 announcement of such an intent in a 7:53 quarry you state would trigger banks to 7:55 relocate their font across the continent 7:58 and the process the collapse of the euro 8:00 would be set in motion even if moderate 8:03 forces win the elections in 2017 the 8:07 nationalist and popular sentiment will 8:09 only grow stronger next year and 8:11 although the union can bear the 8:13 departure of Greece and the United 8:15 Kingdom it cannot survive the retro love 8:18 France or Italy we have mentioned this 8:21 before but there are just too many 8:22 conflicting interests within the 8:25 European Union its collapse may be 8:27 irreversible elsewhere in Europe the 8:30 refugee crisis will continue to divide 8:32 the nation some government will toughen 8:35 national migration laws and the pork 8:37 refugees others will seek to reintroduce 8:40 border controls within the Schengen zone 8:42 one of the leading complications of the 8:45 refugee crisis is the fact that the flow 8:47 of refugees arrived in southern European 8:51 states such as greece and italy yet the 8:53 destination of the migrants and refugees 8:56 is western and northern Europe like most 9:00 of the e use predicaments whether its 9:02 financial legislative or social there is 9:05 a lack of coordinated planning as such 9:08 european space will fail to set up a 9:11 coherent migration policy 1 prime 9:14 example of this failure is the e use 9:17 migration agreement with turkey Brussels 9:19 is supposed to grant recent 9:21 liberalisation to turkish citizens by 9:23 october 2017 9:25 however given the growing Euroskeptic 9:27 circumstances Brussels will fail to 9:30 honor its commitments to Ankara 9:32 subsequently this grant turkey the legal 9:35 rights to abandon the migration treaty 9:38 altogether but to avoid upsetting turkey 9:40 at the European Union is likely to delay 9:43 the visa liberalisation rather than to 9:46 deny it completely still however 9:48 Brussels is merely postponing a crisis 9:51 not solving one and Part two of the 9:54 European analysis we will focus on 9:57 Eastern Europe and NATO's entanglement 9:59 with Russia we will go over the 10:02 conflicts in Ukraine the militarization 10:04 of the Baltics and much more 10:06 in any case this was a casting report by 10:09 me Sherman I want to extend special 10:11 thanks to the following people on 10:13 patriotism for making this report 10:15 possible and if you want to help our 10:17 channel grow places its / 10:20 casting report anyway thank you for 10:23 watching and sold

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