Trump’s Rising Polls

 Good Labor Day Sunday, I’m still reporting on the polls.
Why do I report on polls anyway. If they are all fake, why bother?
Well, they aren’t all fake; it’s all about methodology.
Methodology is the basis of all polling - how you ask the questions, but most importantly who you question.
With that is mind, since polls aren’t measuring – and can’t measure – the Monster vote, all you can say is that polls sometimes measure relative changes in direction.
Why can’t they measure Trump’s monster vote? Because methodology depends on voter’s past performance.
They can’t poll for people who have not voted in the past 16 years. There are no stats.
In addition, very few try to sort out the crossover vote, which always favors Trump this year. And that’s the monster vote.
Having said that, you know it’s pretty bad when even polls which can’t measure this giant Trump reserve vote start saying Trump is pulling ahead even with this disadvantage.
In yesterday’s USC Daybreak poll, Trump is now ahead of Clinton by 2.6%, 45% for Trump to 42.4% for Clinton. Notice that the gray 95% certainty area is now closing in fast as we are only 65 days out from election day.
Yesterday, another big national poll showed Trump leaping ahead of Clinton in the Reuters/Ipsos poll. But the big news is that this is an 8-point swing in favor of Trump in just the last week.
Now let’s look at the all-important swing state of Virginia. In August, various polls showed Clinton up by between 8 and 12 points. However, a poll done by Emerson college from Tuesday to Thursday of last week shows Clinton up by only one point, 44 to 43%.
But Emerson, to its credit also goes searching for Trump’s Monster vote by looking at the vote of the independents. They are breaking for Trump by nearly a 2-1 margin in Virginia – 47% to 28.
Last week, Emerson also looked at the other swing states. Clinton and Trump are tied in Ohio at 43%.
Last month in Pennsylvania, Clinton’s lead was between 8 and 12%, but now it’s been cut to 3% - 46 to 43.
Even in Michigan, Clinton now leads Trump by only 5% - 45 to 40.
So at this point, this race is all about direction and momentum. Trump has it, while Clinton’s is going into reverse with every day of her further absence on the campaign trail.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.










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