Monday, October 26, 2015

Jim Willie update on Financial Collapse and Geopolitical Chess moves 10.26.2015

 Great interview with Dr. Jim Willie, Editor of the Hat Trick Letter that can be found on

1) Lost US leadership globally, with Petro-$ gone and USMilitary retreat

- numerous hidden consequences to the dismantled Petro-Dollar Standard
- rising USD exchange rate (not from strong economy) has slammed a few areas
- US energy sector in absolute wrecked tatters (bankruptcies, debt defaults)
- US export trade in standstill (empty Calif shipping containers)
- assaults on Wall St bank balance sheets, with derivative losses (covered by Hidden QE)
- led to Russian Military inclusion in northern Middle East front
- Russia saw threat to Tartus Naval Base, to Turkey and Bosporus entry, to Russia front
- duplicity of the ISIS/ISIL entire movement and position by USGovt
- growing retreat has deeper military superiority issues at work (Russian spot items)

2) RMB international seeding and spread with Hub Centers, trade settlement, and soon oil sales

- London strives with ambition to be major European RMB hub for connection to China
- London has ambition to be major link to China for massive trade deals
- competition with France, Germany, Switzerland on RMB hub centers
- delay for IMF Special Draw Rights inclusion seems orchestrated
- IMF inclusion means perhaps $1 trillion in estimated RMB bonds in Western bank systems
- cross border trade rising noticeably in RMB settlement (still rather minor)
- fast rising RMB settlement in gold trade
- big BIG item upcoming is Gulf Emirate oil sales in RMB terms
- strategic meetings between Saudis and Russia at Kremlin with Putin
- negotiating Saudi role vis-a-vis ISIS, and probably RMB sales with Russia price setting
- major changes coming to Saudi, either play ball with Kremlin or swept out in palace coup
- Russian trade zones avoid USD in payments, likely to use more RMB
- CIPS payment system set running, to be expanded, rivals SWIFT (pushed aside for abuses)

3) USTreasury Bond cracks covered by (not so hidden) $1 trillion in monthly QE volume

- ongoing USTBond market fractures and collapse in ultra slow motion
- maybe negative interest rates far more widely, even on Fed Funds
- negative flirt on REPO rate and Dollar Swap rate
- major new item is Reverse REPO gigantic volume, Fails Deliver TBonds gigantic volume
- $40 billion in daily Fail volume means $1 trillion per month in Hidden QE by USFed
- flow is confirmed, but purpose is not (suspect Wall St bank oil hedges and Petro-$ derivs)
- Belgium EuroClear identified as Chinese (BRICS too) weigh station for TBond dumping
- notice $250bn in Chinese dumped TBonds in July, Aug, Sept but TNX calm near 2.0%
- USTreasury Bond market under full control, emergency war room condition

4) Key swing nations in Britain, Germany, Turkey, Saudi Arabia

- geopolitical stage at risk of important tipping points
- Britain might make key decisions against USD in order to court RMB trade
- Germany might make key moves to further Frankfurt RMB Hub
- could it be that Germany will undermine Russian Sanctions via further RMB moves?
- Turkey has upcoming elections in early November
- word is tilt East even if Erdogan wins, but much faster tilt if loses
- risk of Turkish Military coup present and strong
- Turkey is important in two ways: Bosporus control, Turk Stream in Gazprom pipeline
- Saudis are in state of flux, royal challenges as King Salman is out with senile dementia
- Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) is in charge, cutting deals with Putin in Russia
- war in Yemen going badly, another proxy war with Iran
- Saudi important in numerous ways: turns Emirates RMB, end of Petro-$, oil exhausted

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