Tuesday, January 27, 2015
Oil Wars -- The Shale Oil Bubble Bursting
Hooray, oil is suddenly much cheaper than it used to be. That's great news, right? Not so fast. For certain it's not good news for those counting on a continued rise in US oil production from the "shale miracle". Many drillers were challenged to operate profitably when oil was above $70 per barrel. Very few will remain solvent with oil in the $50s (as it is as of this writing). So, expect US oil production to suffer from these lower prices if they persist. But even if oil prices rise and rise soon, there's new data that indicates the total amount of extractable oil from America's shale plays is less -- much less -- than what we're being told (or better put, "sold"). On today's podcast, Chris talks with oil analyst David Hughes, who has complied several recent studies based on a massive database of production results on a play-by-play basis of America's shale basins. The data show that declines tend to be hyperbolic in all shale fields. The average first-year decline is 70%; down to 85% by year three. And we're drilling the best plays first: meaning future ones will yield less even under the best results. We're pinning our hopes of "oil independence" on faulty data. Worse, we're using it to dismiss the Peak Oil theme at exactly the time we should be using this extra oil to construct the infrastructure for our next energy age (whatever that may look like), while we still have the net energy available to us.
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ReplyDeletethe financial system is somehow lost, in fact there is no guru any longer. therefore rather than looking finances as a quantity, look at it as a quality. and the quality is the human on the system.
the human individual its mind. applying growth in relation to the individual and not into the quantity that a system must obtain. profit is quantity, health is quality, ecology is quality, while profit is quantity, the deterioration of quality. inverting the vision the picture becomes clear.
"crazy eddy" christmas in july: move wall street to beaumont texas, where the petrol is...!
a new name a new currency: I propose the BREN 25% silver, a name for the 21 century. the balance of the scales is just a question of perception. technology is one of the means of balance in the 21 century, when is use properly. technology just communicates. is just a very large telephone where everyone is plug into. an ecological financial system can help the issue, rather than having profits, have an ecological healthy future.