"One day this whole credit bubble will be deflated very badly - you are going to experience a complete implosion of all asset prices and the credit system..."
Via South China Morning Post,
Marc Faber was in fine form at the CLSA Investor Forum, dispensing
his trademark gloom and doom. The final keynote was a tour de force of
the history of debt, asset bubbles and financial markets in the 20th and
21st centuries.
"Unlike the '50s and '70s when there was relatively less overall
debt, a financial market crash did not inflict great damage on the
economy.
Debt levels are significantly higher these days, and so a market crash can inflict serious damage on economies.
We've gone through a period of huge asset inflation, in stocks,
bonds, commodities, and real estate, and we essentially now have in the
world, a huge asset bubble.
So everything is grossly inflated."
In addition there has since 2007 been:
"colossal asset inflation" in high-end goods...
In thinking about what the next big bubble will be, Faber said:
"The problem is I believe you and I are the bubble... the financial system is just too big, that is the problem.
Maybe we can't see where the next bubble is because we are the bubble - that is something to consider."
Faber thought economists
should distinguish between economic growth where credit grows at the
same rate as the economy, which he believes is sound compared with a
situation where credit grows faster than the economy. Credit used in capital formation is more beneficial to an economy than if used for consumption, as is the case in the US.
"One day this whole credit bubble will be deflated very badly
- you are going to experience a complete implosion of all asset prices
and the credit system - but as to when -I don't know."
Advanced sign of the cracks in the system are already evident. A
dollar of additional credit in the system created significant economic
growth, but these days an additional dollar has very little impact.
"That is a sign that we have reached the end of monetary policy."
Another indication is when the US government has to issue treasuries to pay the interest on its maturing debt.
"That will be the end game - then you are dealing with a collapse in the currency."
- via Zerohedge
Debt levels are significantly higher these days, and so a market crash can inflict serious damage on economies.
We've gone through a period of huge asset inflation, in stocks, bonds, commodities, and real estate, and we essentially now have in the world, a huge asset bubble.
So everything is grossly inflated."
Maybe we can't see where the next bubble is because we are the bubble - that is something to consider."
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