Is India Facing a Total Economic Collapse? -- How could Gold Save India . India's independence was around the same time as the founding of the People's Republic of China. In the beginning, India was in much better condition than China in both economic strength and international environment, But, 70 years later, with nearly the same population, China's economy is more than four times the size of India's economy. The level of infrastructure and welfare of the people in China and India is not at the same level at all. The living gap between the ordinary people of China and India is evident. What's more, the gap between China and India today is not shrinking but widening. This reality requires Indian intellectuals, especially Indian rulers, to think deeply and not to put all the good and evil into the game of democracy, satisfaction, and democracy as the world becomes more open, and nations connect and understand each other more deeply, Indians, especially Indian intellectuals, cannot pass the time while laughing at China's dictatorship and appreciating the superiority of Indian democracy. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. The Indian economy is heading for “major depression,” and it can “crash” soon if efforts are not put to revive it, BJP leader Subramanian Swamy has said. The Rajya Sabha MP had written a 16-page letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, warning him about the economy, which is in a “tailspin.” “Today, the economy is in a tailspin. Yes, it can crash. We need to do a lot of good things to revive the economy. Even a tailspin can be made to steady. If nothing is done, we are heading for significant depression. There will be a mass scale. Banks might collapse, factories might start closing,” he said in an interview to CNN-News18 recently. Earlier this month, the government had revealed that the unemployment rate in the country is higher than it has ever been. Indian government claims that India is growing at 7%, Arvind Subramanian; a well-known economist argued that It’s growing at around 4.5%. The crisis brewing within the Indian economy has gained unanimous acceptance by now. Even the latest annual report of the RBI for the fiscal year 2018-19 confirmed that the Indian economy has indeed hit a rough patch. The GDP growth rate of the economy has slipped to 5 percent in the first quarter of FY20, the lowest in over six years. This is an indication of tougher times ahead. Be it the recent collapse of the automobile sector or the rising number of non-performing assets (NPAs), sluggish consumer demand, or failing manufacturing sector; all have a hand in this deceleration of growth. will give some mathematical stats and let you judge. The Indian economy indeed collapsed in 1991 with a balance of payment crisis. Indian household women gave 60 tons of gold to the PV Narasimha Rao government. And the government had to open the gates for Multinational foreign corporations. Further, the rupee was devalued by 20%. The Indian economy was manufacturing and export-oriented until 1600 AD. Indeed India controlled 33% of all world export and was the richest nation in the world. Now India is a service-oriented economy. 57% of its GDP comes from the service sector. The Indian economy was an agriculture-based economy until the 1970s, with a 70% share from agriculture. Now it is just 29%. Farmers are unable to feed themselves, and their lands are being acquired by big corporations for corporate farming. India adds a workforce of one million people every two months. As much as 25% of Indian youths are unemployed. The Indian Economy does not create the required one million jobs in one year combined, let alone two months. Hence India has a large consumer base but not a paying customer. 1% of top Indians hold 73% of the total Indian wealth. With no new job, manufacturing stops, and with no manufacturing, there is no service sector. Just think in this way. The Indian economy is a giant machine with all kinds of small parts. The wealth distribution is so skewed that the bottom part of the machine is unable to survive, let alone thrive. India needs to oil the bottom part of the economic machine. Or else the whole system could face a domino effect of collapse. Indian's net savings are 117 trillion rupees. The net external loan is 82 trillion rupees. The net Non-Performing Assets is 11%. It means that about 11 trillion rupees of loans are not recoverable by banks and hence need to be written off. It only means that Indians have a net savings of 24 trillion rupees. It means that if the government has to pay off all debt and clear Non Performing Assets, then only 20% of the bank balance will remain!! Remember, the government took loans in your name. You owe 82 trillion rupees! All Multinational corporations have an agreement with India that would pay all of their net profit repatriatable in US dollars. It means that if companies ask their benefits back, India will face a repatriation crisis. In the event of any significant economic slowdown, these companies may ask the government to repay their money back. With all these backdrops, why is the Indian economy still surviving ! The reason might surprise you. Yes, it is the same cushion India had in 1991. The public-owned gold. Indians love gold, and they hoard gold. The Indian Public owns 25000 tons of gold privately. It is valued at 82 trillion, the same as the Indian government's total debt. Indian temples shave around 5000 tons of gold. In contrast, the mighty RBI holds only 550 tons! Hence the government is seizing the gold of Indian temples (it already seized 1800 tons) by various spurious gold monetization schemes etc. The foreign investors are assured that in case of a crisis, the government will seize gold off the citizens and give it to them! The privately held gold is the public guarantee of external debt. The figure is so vast that New Delhi now has to borrow money just to pay the interest due on its old loans. Let's consider the following factors; #1. Indian Rupee is a fiat currency and not based on the gold standard. Hence the government of India and its agencies (RBI) can print as much as it requires, resulting in Inflations. the Government of India is especially infamous in this regard since it merely prints more banknotes to pay off its local debt, causing hyperinflation. #2. Current Account Deficit is high, with investors considering India to be a high-risk market. There is a risk of downgrading the sovereign rating of India to Junk by the three big rating agencies. #3. Low income, High expenditure; Only 3% of Indians pay taxes, and yet the government pays for the subsidy of a vast majority of Indians (this includes oil subsidy). #4. Indian economy is very costly for Foreign institutional investors. The P/E ratio of Indian stocks reached 20, which is very high compared to international prices. Consumer defensive stocks in India are trading at 13 to 20 times their book value and at incredulous P/E values. Foreign institutional investors find other Non-Indian stock markets more competitively priced. #5. Restrictive laws on Foreign Direct Investment . Foreign Direct Investment has been opened in multiple sectors, but there are severe restrictions and conditions to investment in these sectors, thereby discouraging investments. Investors also fear the risk of inability to repatriate funds back to the home country due to restrictions introduced in place by RBI to contain a fall in the value of Indian Rupee. #6. Inflation is high in India due to the high liquidity of a currency. India follows the WPI standard for calculating inflation. However, the value of inflation calculated using WPI can be deceptively low when compared to actual inflation. CPI and RPI are better metrics for determining inflation. For example, WPI defines inflation in India between 4 to 5 %. However, CPI (which is more accurate) determines inflation in India between 11 to 12%. #7. There is rampant corruption in India. This impacts international investors since anti-corruption laws in developed countries are punitive irrespective of the geographic location of violation of the law. For example, corporations in the UK/USA can be prosecuted there if they or their subsidiaries indulge in any corrupt practices in India. This is a significant risk for investors in India. #8. Most of the investments in India are in dubious sectors like real estate and gold. These instruments cannot be considered investments since they only store value. They do not appreciate in value over the long term; they only retain their value. It is incorrectly perceived as an investment due to an increase in value over the short term. This is especially true in India because of inflation and low supply, and not because of actual intrinsic value. This will lead to a situation like the 2008 real estate bubble in the USA. All of these factors form a vicious circle leading to collapse in an economy. India has fallen deep into this circle, and unless it breaks out of it in the immediate future, economic collapse is imminent. In the end, India will still be trapped in debt. With 78 of the largest companies in the country facing dissolution under the Indian Bankruptcy Code, India’s economy is heading for a meltdown. The 'Indian Flu,' or Why the Crash of the Economy Is Imminent. I guess we have some time left unless public parts away from its gold and deposits it in banks for a 2.5% gold monetization scheme. But still, mathematically, it cannot be stopped unless India becomes an industrialist nation and switch to manufacturing instead of servicing the US clients for repetitive, redundant jobs. And yes, I just forgot to mention that AI may be taking all these jobs from the Indians in the future!
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There are many inaccuracies in this report. Government of India's total debt is less than 65% of its GDP or around 1.9 trillion dollars. But the report claims it's 82 trillion dollars! The economy has always been resilient in the past. But it's true there's rampant corruption during the 60 years of continuous rule by the Congress party now headed by Sonia Gandhi who is an Italian and is in no way interested in the growth of Indian economy. The report is malicious and seems to be authored by an individual who is antinational.
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