Wednesday, May 27, 2020

๐Ÿ‘‰Will it Be Inflation, Deflation, Stagflation, or Hyperinflation ?


๐Ÿ‘‰Will it Be Inflation, Deflation, Stagflation, or Hyperinflation ?




Today, most Americans are broke and living paycheck to paycheck. The unemployment rate is at 50%. GDP at -40%. And The Dow Jones at 30k. The gap between Main Street and Wall Street has never been more acute. This abysmal economic news should be enough to boost stocks. Many financial assets are soaring, whilst the average consumer is struggling with debt that has been brought into sharp focus by a loss of income. Consumers are retrenching, and small businesses are facing bankruptcy, whilst central banks continue to support asset prices. The outlook for U.S. bankruptcies looks shocking. Even when our economy was "booming," no one in power suggested paying off one dime of debt. It got to a point where a trillion deficit a year (at least what we know of) was the new norm. Now it will be 2.5 to 5 trillion a year deficits. Anybody in their 20s will probably see a quadrillion in total deficit at this pace. Trump has laid out over 10 Trillion that we know about and will give us another 5 trillion more. The Democrats gave him the 2 trillion for another 3 trillion. US Debt well over 30 Trillion to start 2021. Might be closer to 35 Trillion. But as we all know, DEBT does not matter in modern-day economics. Shame on all of us that thought fundamentals meant anything. Today, 45 percent of Americans have close to zero cash in their savings account. And that's according to a survey by GoBanking Rates in December 2019. Auto and student loans are also at record levels. Credit card delinquency rates are at a 20 year high. US consumers have been teetering on edge for years, living paycheck to paycheck. And now, with paychecks abruptly postponed and in some cases canceled, many households will be missing rental, mortgage and credit card payments and also skipping on health care, setting in motion the dominoes in which their credit scores will be impaired. And banks who are already hoarding cash will be reluctant to lend. Government handouts will be used to plug the holes in today's cash flows, or they will be hoarded in order to offset a decline in future revenue or wages. And in many cases, it will be used to pay down debt. Consumption patterns aren't likely to return to pre-COVID levels, even if economies rapidly reopen. That would be deflationary. So are we going to see coming deflation, inflation, hyperinflation, or stagflation? Will It Be An Inflationary Or Deflationary Depression? In my opinion, we are going to have Price deflation in many areas but eventually high or hyperinflation on a global scale. We can have deflation in some parts of the economy and still have price inflation in a lot of goods. Deflation, in certain asset groups, is possible, but the only certain outcome is hyperinflation. In answer to "how do I get that" out of the facts, the only fact that counts are the unlimited printing of dollars out of thin air. Soon enough, the velocity of money will increase somewhat, and then we will see the result of contrived world-wide stagflation. Deflation for things you don't need, inflation for the things you need every day. Hyperinflation on needs, Deflation on wants.Too bad they cannot print consumer confidence. The biggest difference in HOW people spend. It is not whether there will be deflation or inflation. There will be deflation in some areas and inflation in some areas. Deflation in luxury/lifestyle goods and services. Inflation in the price of necessities. Deflation on your asset, inflation on your food. Deflation followed by hyperinflation. Deflation until everybody 'thinks' they need toilet paper again then inflation. I think the inflationary nature of QE is being counteracted by the deflationary nature of lockdowns. The Elephant in the room is if it’s so easy to see this, why do Central Banks persist despite the clear trend of following Japan in this downward spiral? Are our leaders that terribly short-sighted? You cant blow all the tires on the economy, cause rippling bankruptcy, try to paper it over with 10 Trillion Dollars, and then expect the economy to magically bounce back. That ten trillion dollar was borrowed prosperity from the future, which means sometime in the future, we have to experience a time where we are down 10 Trillion in relative wealth (the economy has to contract by Trillions in value down the road to pay for the bandaid. Expectations for a V-shaped recovery appear increasingly unlikely. There is no deflation, except when it comes to things that are incredibly over-valued to start with. I have been watching prices at the grocery store rise mercilessly since 2008's money creation binge that never seemed to end. Lately, the prices of most items are going up every time I go to the store. All of those trillions being created don't all find their way into the stock derivatives markets. Anyway, some deflation would be nice after 10 percent per year or more for over a decade. Only deflation in luxuries. Only inflation in necessities. There will be inflation as long as the fed/government is printing money and handing it out to the public, i.e., unemployment and stimulus. As long as they do that, chances are people will spend it. Hell, many people make more now than they did working, just for that fact alone. Do you think the money changers haven't taken this argument into account? If people have money to spend, the demand will be there. The question would be, how long can they just keep printing! Deflationary crash in asset prices (But not Precious Metals) followed by hyperinflation crisis (particularly on consumables- food and other commodities). To the best of my knowledge, the inflation calls are assuming that a deflationary period will precede it. A deflationary period, say where nobody has a job and therefore no money is moving, causing an overreaction in monetary policy that results in out of control inflation. Cause and effect. Deflation is the cause, but it always ends in inflation. Yes, demand for certain things has declined markedly. Going out to a fancy restaurant every night, going to the movies or a rock concert or Disney park, or going on a cruise or traveling to Italy or China. However, the demand for other things has only increased. Toilet paper being the poster child of the whole basket, groceries, home entertainment, sewing machines, and woodworking tools, even books. HOWEVER, the drop in supply is turning out to be more serious and long-lasting than people expected. Cue China. The massive container ships making daily port calls have all but disappeared. So yes, there will be big pockets of deflation, but there are also going to be big pockets of inflation. If you are caught out in a blizzard, so you build a fire and put your hands in the fire, on average, are you going to be comfortable? Hyperinflations all need crushing deflation to start, and since this is really a global economy it has to be simultaneous and worldwide universal deflation to kick off the hyperinflation, this deflation could last a couple of years but the deeper it goes and the longer it goes, the more likely the hyperinflation to come later is. It will be both In My Opinion. It isn't binary. Deflation in asset prices, Real Estate, cars, and other equipment and wages. Inflation in everything else, food, alcohol, and precious metals. Demand Inflation for the things we need like food. Deflation for the leveraged assets. Years in the future, the US Supernovas and only then do we get hyperinflation. Flip a coin and take a guess. The fed adding tons of fiat to chase fewer things with, but then there's the possibility most people will be flat broke. The inflation you really need to worry about is food inflation. Things go horribly wrong when people can't eat. Food inflation and availability are about to be an Arab spring kinda thing again. The real food shortages have not happened yet and may not in the near future. A few empty store shelves is not a food shortage. Whole industry groups are not just declining. They are dead. Why would you buy a house, or a car, or even think about any new business venture until this settles? We are in terra incognita. Fasten your seat belts. It's gonna be a bumpy ride. I predict: -The US Government gets bigger and more totalitarian. -The US Real Standard of Living continues its downtrend started in 1970. -The US Citizens get even fatter and dumber. It was a perfect crime. 1). Inflation for the rich. 2). Deflation for the poor. You can't get more perfect than that! There will be stagflation. Inflation of some things, deflation of others, stagnant or dropping wages. A long, slow grind into serfdom and poverty for most. Welcome back to The Atlantis Report. You are here for your daily dose of the truth, the full truth, and nothing but the truth. A falling American empire spinning out of control faster than a bullet train, and still many Americans are deep asleep thinking all is well. The shit storm has started; they will make it look like all is well for elections. Jobs are not coming back if you think they are, then you are delusional. The small businesses are gone. Wait till the 2nd wave and all shut down again come September. An unlimited amount of toilet paper is getting printed. The day when PetroDollar Collapse, the USA will goes Zimbabwe. If the economy was a warrior today, it would wish for a quick honorable death. Corporate socialism only goes to the top 1 %, And I could have told you this before the crisis. The economy is the worst since the great depression, with tens of millions out of work and major industries shut down - yet stocks are climbing. It’s not a free market anymore. It’s heavily manipulated by the FED. Just before Venezuela went off the cliff, the market was red hot; history is rhyming. It’s undeniable now – we’re headed toward a global recession. So, what’s next? It's the end of an era. Now we need to become tough and rugged because playtime is over! The Fed is delaying Panic With Ponzi Finance. Hyman Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis is coming to you soon. They won’t be able to hide tent cities and evictions coming in the next two months. The virus is cover for the financial collapse, new crypto financial system, and buyout by the Central banks. It may be closer to another six months be for things to get crazy. That's when the normal six-month unemployment cycle ends. They can, of course, extend this, but the bottom line is when the government checks, by any source, and the stimulus ends, that's when shit will go sideways. Prep up and stack food to the rafters. The corrupt Congress sold this country down the river for a certain amount of campaign contributions. An overbearing authoritarian monarchy has turned the USA into a nation of bed-wetters curled up in their basements, sucking their thumbs, begging government overlords to protect them from a virus. The endless tampering of the economic ecology. A hamster wheel of endless intervention. Businesses are doing push-ups in zero gravity and proclaiming their indomitable strength via equities. One highly suspects that eventually, the world is going to catch on to the falseness of reality without gravity. Denial is a river that originates in DC and reaches terminus on Wall Street. Banking and Wallstreet are not essential to get your money out. For the last decade, it has been an inflationary depression. In the short term, it will be deflationary. Then in a few months, we will enter hyperinflation. There will be a big fat drop in real estate prices in the short-term because a big fat chunk of the population will stop paying their mortgage or rent. But they will prop it up again. The bankers aren't stupid. They will buy it up on the cheap with the money the Fed just gave them. Then it will go back up just like last time. This is what they do. Acquire assets on the cheap, sell them at the top. Where's the bottom? Only they know. We will see massive credit collapse while the central banks of the world fractionally and hopelessly try to reflate the bubble. Then once the Corona crisis is over and people start to feel a little good again, this massive intervention will cut up to them as the deflation turns into hyperinflation. Give it a few years. The next four years 2020-2024 will be for America what 1988-1992 were for the Soviet Union. It's the end of the post-World War II era with US dollar hegemony as the stabilizing (and paradoxically destabilizing) force. This is a wild game of musical chairs, and no one cares about those they step on while the music continues to play. We will look back at the past two decades as the golden age of the average Joe. Freedom of movement has never been as free as the past 20 years for the average human. We could fly around the world for hundreds of dollars. You could go from one country to another, and for the most part, retain your right to privacy. This will never be the same again. Global travel will now be subject to mass surveillance. Only those with ‘authorization’ will be permitted to travel freely. We find ourselves down deeper and deeper into the totalitarian rabbit hole, globally, all at once. The thing that annoyed me the most is that we have to adjust to the "new normal." Poverty, no Bill of Rights, the Fed stealing everything. When I put on my special sunglasses, all I see are big signs reading COMPLY. Masks are a sign of subservience. The fundamental political question is, why do people obey a government. The answer is that they tend to enslave themselves to let themselves be governed by tyrants. Freedom from servitude comes not from violent action, but from the refusal to serve. Tyrants fall when the people withdraw their support.”—ร‰tienne De La Boรฉtie, The Politics Of Obedience. Don’t pity this year’s crop of graduates because this COVID-19 pandemic caused them to miss out on the antics of their senior year and the pomp and circumstance of graduation. Pity them because they have spent their entire lives in a state of emergency. Food, water, weapons renewables, ammo, stack, cash, a vehicle like a small motorcycle, ability to make a fire, lights, backup power, gas better than electric, if you can get offshore by boat great. Directions to closest DUMBs, a partner, a crew, a platoon just not lone wolf, ability to pick a lock, barterable goods, a case of BIC lighters, and a GREAT Attitude. This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. Subscribe. And please take some time to subscribe to my back up channels, I do upload videos there too. You'll find the links in the description box. You will also find a PayPal link if you want to make a donation. Thank you wholeheartedly to all those of you who have already donated. Stay safe and healthy friends!












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