👉BREXIT is Done -- What Happens Now ?

It’s finally Brexit Day, after three and a half years. When London's iconic Big Ben struck 11 PM on Friday night; The United Kingdom was officially out of the European Union. Three and a half years after the referendum of 23 June 2016 in which the yes to the farewell won over the no. The United Kingdom has been the first country to leave the EU since the international organization was founded. London had joined in 1973, retired 47 years later. The last formal but necessary step was the vote by the European Parliament on Wednesday 29 January, concluded with a broad yes to the agreement. It's been a long and complex farewell from Brussels, but some three-and-a-half years. Three and a half years after the referendum, Brexit is now a reality. But exit Day, as it's called, was just the beginning of the end. Until the end of 2020, everything will remain the same in Britain, except that 73 British members of the European Parliament will leave Brussels and return to the United Kingdom. Britain will continue to play by the rules and also pay into the EU budget, even though it doesn't have a say in making the rules anymore. Meanwhile, Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has urged her party to build a strong case for independence from Britain. The EU accounts for 60% of the UK trade. Britain is leaving, France is almost bankrupt, All the other nations except Germany take more than they pay in.....The whole EU project could be headed towards failure. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. January 31 is the last day of the United Kingdom within the European Union. It is a historic event: 47 years have passed since London - on New Year's Day in 1973 - and Great Britain became part of what was then called the EEC, the European Economic Community. After the historic referendum.... the day has finally arrived. The U.K. is now officially out of the European Union. After years of people asking, when Brexit. Now the question becomes, what's next after Brexit. So let's analyze who are the winners and who are the losers of post-Brexit Europe. Brexit Day on Jan. 31 is just the beginning of an 11-month transition period. Britain has to figure out everything from trade to fisheries. Three and a half years after the UK narrowly voted to leave the European Union, Friday closes the chapter on its 47-year membership of the regional bloc. But that's not the end of the story. The withdrawal agreement which went into force at 11 pm in the UK,... also marks the start of what are expected to be long and grueling trade negotiations. The various sticking points include rules on regulatory standards, fishing, banking, energy and transport. But while the two sides slug out a deal,... a transition period takes effect. This means current EU rules and standards on trade, freedom of travel, and business continue to apply,... though the UK loses its voice in the bloc's institutions. UK officials have expressed a willingness to start talks straight away. But EU ministers must first agree on a motion to do that at a meeting in late February, meaning the negotiations are likely to start in early March. A UK-EU summit in June is expected to serve as a check on progress. June is also the final month that the UK can ask the EU to extend the transition period up to 2022. However, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has firmly ruled out that option. This means officials would have to draw up a proposal by late November, if they want to end the transition period with a viable agreement. But are 11 months long enough to work out such a deal? Brussels has made it clear it won't give the UK zero-tariff access to its single market if it doesn't comply with EU regulations on the production and trade of goods. At the same time, the UK has refused alignment with EU standards. The disagreements are expected to complicate the negotiation process. "I think what we'll see is an interim deal to make sure that by the end of the year there is no that cliff edge and, the UK doesn't leave without an agreement. But I think that this would be only the first one of multiple agreements that would need to be negotiated and signed in future years. Not on any economics but also on political issues, possibly also on social issues, foreign policy as well." So the UK crosses the point of no return, but the future remains unclear for its ties with Brussels... and the status of some 5 million citizens made up of EU nationals in the UK and Brits in the EU. The quagmire that is Brexit looks far from over. So let's look at it in detail. Let's see what is the transition. On January 31st, the British are no longer European citizens only on principle: for a true divorce and in all respects, 11 months of transition will have to pass. Johnson's government prefers to call it the implementation period. From 1 February to 31 December 2020, little will change, apart from the fact that the 73 MEPs will no longer be part of the European parliament starting from 1 February. In the next 11 months, trade relations will remain the same: the United Kingdom remains in the single market and in the customs union. London will also have to comply with all EU rules, even the most contested ones that concern the European Court of Justice, but will not take part in the political decisions of the Union of the 27 countries. Above all, the United Kingdom will continue to pay its participation fee to the EU, that is, it will continue to contribute to the Community budget for the duration of the transition. A necessary limbo, a new phase in which much more can happen. How long the transition lasts?. The transition ends on 31 December 2020, by this date, all future relations between the EU and the United Kingdom must be defined. The points to be decided are many, the time is short, so in Brussels and not only there many think and hope that the transition period will extend beyond December 31st. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, however, ruled out this possibility with an ad hoc law under which the government is committed to avoiding an extension of the period beyond 31 December. If the government changes its mind, it should have another law passed in the opposite direction. Currently, the last window useful for extending the transition period closes on 1 July 2020. If things remain so and agreements on all points will not be reached by the end of the year, the United Kingdom will still be out. What happens now? This eventuality recalls the catchphrase of the last three and a half years: deal or no deal. The no-deal was the hypothesis in which the EU and the United Kingdom had not reached a withdrawal agreement, in this case, there would have been talking of hard Brexit. However, the withdrawal agreement was made, the exit from London is therefore ordered and regulated in principle thanks to a political agreement; crucial details must now be defined. It remains to be seen whether it will be possible to negotiate the number of sub-agreements that will regulate future relations because after 31 December 2020, the United Kingdom will renounce the single market and the customs union. If the negotiations in the coming months will not be successful, duties on products traded between the EU and the UK could resume. Negotiations for an EU-UK free trade agreement are expected to begin on March 3. For this to be the case, the EU Commission must approve a proposal for a negotiating mandate by early February in order to have the EU Council adopt it by the end of the same month. What should be negotiated? The European agri-food industry is closely following what will happen. There are, however, other key sectors to be regulated between now and the end of 2020. Application of laws, sharing of data and information, security; air traffic and safety; gas and electricity supplies; patents and rules for drugs. Above all, the fishing rights of Europeans in British territorial waters and vice versa, a matter which could reserve bitter surprises. Brexit to varying degrees will affect everyone: companies, professionals, students, ordinary citizens. After the transition period, the free movement of persons will no longer apply in the UK. This means that Europeans will no longer be able to live freely in the United Kingdom as they have done so far. A visa mechanism similar to that of the United States will be in place. Europeans will only be able to enter the UK with a passport. And the British in the EU too will need a passport and their status will no longer be that of EU citizens. From February 1, the United Kingdom will formally no longer be part of the area of ​​free movement of people and goods. The UK has never been part of the Schengen Convention and therefore it was always necessary to check identity documents on departure and arrival. Until now, the identity card was also accepted. For 2020, the transition period, the Identity Card will still be valid. From 2021, however, a European citizen willing to enter the UK will need a passport. And with the actual Brexit, will also need a visa. From 1 January 2021, the United Kingdom will become a fully-fledged foreign country, as is the United States, or Japan. Moving to London, for periods longer than 3 or 6 months, will be the same as moving to New York or Dubai. A visa will, therefore, be required to live and work in the country, unless the negotiations with the European Union during the course of this year change the rules. The Brexit effect on shopping: euros or pounds? All British department stores, prestigious boutiques and medium-large stores allow European citizens to pay in Euros, both with cash and with debit/credit cards. England was part of the EU but has kept the pound. In many tourist places, both currencies were allowed. From February 1st this will no longer be possible. Only pounds will be accepted. With Brexit, the frontier returns. A border between England and the European Union will return from 2021. Being an island, the country is already separated from the rest of the continent today. However, it will take a physical border between Northern Ireland, which belongs to the United Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland, a member state of the EU. Planes and ships already today when they arrive in the UK, must carry out border checks and customs operations. The French fast train that connects Paris and London in 2 hours. It passes under the English Channel through the Eurotunnel. It is the only direct and terrestrial link between Great Britain and Europe. From February 1, but in fact, from January 1, 2021, even the fast train will have to carry out border checks and pass customs on arrival in London and Paris, as in any airport. Customs and duty risk for goods. The United Kingdom buys lots of goods from Europe but sells little abroad. European food, clothing, furnishings, machinery, and vehicles, which are in abundance today and imported, will have to go through customs on 1 February and may even have to pay duties. It is one of the thorniest topics of commercial negotiation between the UK and the EU. Brexit will place restrictions on immigration. There will be no limit to legal immigration, but only if they have a job paid more than £ 30,000 a year by the employer. The measure serves to limit the entry of unskilled labor and encourage the entry of qualified foreign workers. Groups of entrepreneurs have asked for the threshold to be lowered to £ 26,000. In Conclusion, what are the effects of Brexit? #1. Short-term macroeconomic effects. The opinion shared by both "Remain" and "Leave" supporters is that there will certainly be an initial short-term negative shock to the EU economy as a direct consequence of Brexit. However, there is a clear disagreement about the likely duration of this effect: according to the supporters of the Remain, this will have permanent consequences, while according to the supporters of the "Leave" the costs will be only immediate and limited in time. The UK Treasury Department argues that the main reasons for this short-term effect would be those caused by the transitional costs of moving to a new trade and direct investment regime. Other short-term effects could derive from the volatility of the currencies, both of the Euro and the English Pound, and from the reactions of the financial markets.        #2. Long-term macroeconomic effects. There have been many attempts to model the possible long-term macroeconomic consequences of Brexit, most of which demonstrate a long-term loss of GDP for the UK economy compared to the models created if the UK remains fully EU and its single market. It is important to underline, however, that GDP cannot be used as a single parameter since theoretically lower GDP growth does not lead to an immediate drop in prosperity. If, for example, the United Kingdom will maintain its current growth rate until 2030. The economy will be around 30% larger and the "losses" of GDP predicted by the models are related to this projection. Assuming a 6% loss, growth would be 24% instead of 30%, with a consequent slowdown in growth but without a stall. The quantum of the slowdown will depend on the type of Brexit that will be implemented and on the type of restrictions that will be adopted in commercial relations. #3. Finally who wins and who loses? The United Kingdom could take the opportunity to cut some regulations, thus facilitating investments in some sectors strictly regulated by European regulations. However, in this case, it is necessary to evaluate with lead feet, because in some cases it is too easy to forget that even regulation, if correct, has benefits and that contrary to the general image, an absence of regulation can also be expensive, both for consumers and businesses. International organizations, such as the IMF and the OECD, have assessed that the balance of risks for the UK economy is negative and will have lasting effects, highlighting the likely unfavorable consequence of a shock. negative for the global economy. What is certain is that there is considerable uncertainty as to who will gain or lose nationally and internationally from Brexit. There are many variables that influence and will influence the merit. The result will differ according to the state, economic sector, social group or work sector. The United Kingdom could also benefit financially if we consider that its main asset is to be a large international financial center, and for this reason, it is more suitable to be linked to the globalized world than to the European Union, which tends to condition the acceding countries. Another important element is the fact that the European Union does not appear favored in the great international economic and political competition that sees the United States and China in the lead. The only certainty is that all these Brexit-related uncertainties will drag on throughout 2020. Thus generating continuous economic and political changes, from which we can see the absolute lack of a medium-long term objective of the European Union based on the notes of the famous song of Doris Day - Whatever Will Be, Will Be. This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. And Subscribe. Thank You.









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