Sunday, January 19, 2020

The Indian Economy is Slowing Down very fast and is heading for a Recession in 2020 !!

The Indian economy is slowing down very fast and is heading for a recession in 2020 unless the Modi government does the right things, fast. The GDP has contracted for at least two quarters. But that's not all. There are many more economic indicators that signal a recession. That's because GDP growth will usually slow for several quarters before it turns negative. That's in response to sluggish consumer demand. Many sectors are failing and falling. Unemployment is very high. The manufacturing and heavy engineering sector are in trouble. The real estate sector is in deep trouble. The Agriculture sector is also in danger. The automobile sector is falling due to little to no sales. There is no demand for consumer goods. India’s GDP has dropped by two ranks. Unemployment is increasing since 2015. Urban and Rural wages are all-time low. Scams are increasing day by day. Modi always says we will arrest people like Nirav Modi and Lalit Modi. The money supply is decreasing day by day. Inflation is increasing at an all-time high. Modern Agriculture is not possible in states like Punjab & Haryana though they contribute to the major proportion of Agriculture in India. Farmers don't want to invest in agriculture as they are not getting their desired profits. Rather they spend a major proportion of their savings in settling abroad countries like Canada & Australia. The rise in immigration of Indians has gone up 40 %. India is losing the best manpower from the country, and that is a major concern. In addition to the slowdown in the economy of India, the global economy is also slowing down and heading for a recession. The poor Indians have to face the adverse effects of both the recessions. The global recession would make some things bad for Indians, like low exports, more unemployment, and closure of more enterprises. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. India is one of the world’s fastest-growing large economies, sometimes being touted as a potential economic and geopolitical counterweight to China. Recently, however, its growth fell to its slowest pace in six years. The Indian Economy is an internal consumption economy. After years of fast-paced growth, India’s economy is losing steam. In this country of more than a billion people, domestic consumption is one of the main drivers of growth, but unemployment is rising, and people's purchasing power has taken a hit. While the government maintains that the economic slowdown is temporary and a revival is not too far ahead, for now, the impact of the slowdown is being felt across industries. Car sales are declining, private investment is slowing down, and the shadow banking sector is in a crisis. India’s central bank has cut interest rates to boost the slowing economy, but could this be enough. The global trade conflict is hurting emerging countries the most as they depend a lot on exports for economic growth. The growth in emerging economies like Brazil, India, and Russia is expected to slow down in 2020. India will be one of the economies that will suffer from rising protectionism as well as rising interest rates in developed countries. The country’s exports have been ailing for a few years now, and there seems to be no light at the end of a tunnel. This will have severe implications for India’s fragile economy vulnerable to global shocks in the form of crude oil prices, the dollar exchange rate, and the foreign portfolio investors. India imports nearly 80% of all the crude oil it needs, and it means the import bill is uncomfortably high. The economy needs strong growth in exports to have adequate dollars to pay for the imports. This also means that India is extremely sensitive to a sharp rise or fall in the dollar exchange rate. And that is where the rise in US interest rates will hurt the South Asian economy. Rising interest rates in the US increase the value of the dollar, as well as lead to an outflow of foreign money from Indian stocks and other financial assets, leading to a vicious cycle that will weaken the rupee further. The result will be a rise in the cost of imports, and the Indian consumer will have to pay more for the same goods and services that he or she availed before. In an increasingly shaky world, India will need a strong cache of reserves and a firm domestic economy that can support the local economy if and when the world enters the next recession. The country’s foreign exchange reserves jumped by $2.68 billion. One of the largest increases in recent months to touch $396 billion in the week ended January 4. The value of the gold reserves increased by $465.5 million to $22 billion in the reporting week, according to the latest RBI data. The Indian central bank is famously among the most conservative in the world. However, amidst talks of another a global recession, at a time when both the global and the local economy are far from buoyant, can one be ever too cautious? Former Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Arvind Subramanian, is warning that the government's figures of GDP growth - 4.5 percent - could be a "rosier picture than the underlying reality. Mr. Subramanian further said the economic downturn the Indian economy is facing is not an ordinary slowdown, but something that hasn't been seen in the last 20-30 years. Even the New York Times reported in an article about doubts that arose around the data of the Indian economy, in particular on the unemployment and growth rates. The Indian government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, says that the country is growing at a rate of between 7 and 8 percent per year, a significant and above all competitive figure compared to China's growth rate. However, some Indian analysts have expressed doubts about the reliability of these data and accused Modi of having "politicized" them, revising them upwards, or not publishing them when they are negative. In fact, an Indian newspaper revealed last January that according to a government report, whose publication has been postponed for some time, unemployment would be at 6.1 percent, one of the highest figures in recent years (double compared to published reports between 2011 and 2016). The doubts mainly concern the method by which the statistical data are collected: that used in India to measure growth was not introduced by Modi but by the previous prime minister, Manmohan Singh, and is based on the financial data communicated to the government by the 900 thousand registered companies in India, which should measure how the country's general economy is doing. India is one of the first developing countries to use this method, although it involves some problems: the Indian economy is made up of about half of small businesses that operate in cash and are not traceable (this is the case in the agricultural sector, for example). The statistical method that the government uses, therefore, assumes that this half goes in parallel with the other, that of the 900 thousand registered companies. The New York Times, however, explains that this is not always the case. In recent years Modi, who has been prime minister since 2014, had focused heavily on India's economic growth and modernization, intervening with sometimes drastic structural reforms, such as when in 2016 he decided to invalidate some banknote denominations to force tax evaders and criminals to change them and make them so punishable. This and other initiatives caused a lot of inconvenience to those small companies that base all their business on the flow of cash, while instead, the bigger companies (which are counted in the statistics) did not suffer particular damages for the reforms of Modi. Hence doubts arose about government data. If the part used to measure growth is good, while the part not counted is bad, estimates cannot be considered reliable. Last March, 108 economists, mostly Indian, signed a letter criticizing the government's method of collecting and publishing statistical data. The letter gives some examples, all of which occurred between 2015 and 2018, according to which several times the statistical institutes raised their GDP growth estimates by several percentage points, in one case bringing it from 1.1 percent to 8.2. In the document, economists also write that the reason the government is postponing the publication of the unemployment report is the highly negative data it reports, revealed by the newspapers. Any statistics that question the government's economic successes appear to be revised or hidden, with questionable methods. During the election campaign, before the vote concluded (the Indian elections are the largest in the world and last more than a month), there was a lot of talk about economics and unemployment, and even during his first term Narendra Modi had insisted a lot on economic development and growth, promising among other things that it would create 10 million jobs. The World Bank confirmed the analyses made in recent months by analysts and experts: the economic slowdown in India exists, and it is even serious. Indeed, much more severe than expected, enough to push the international organization to reduce Indian growth forecasts for the current fiscal year to 6% compared to the previous 7.5%. Yet last April, that is, only seven months ago, the World Bank itself had painted a completely different scenario, speaking of the strong economic prospects of the Indian economy. What happened? Let's start from the facts: according to Asia Times, in the latest economic report on South Asia, the World Bank underlined how India has been growing at the slowest pace of the last six years, with an expansion of the GDP of the April quarter -June of just + 5%. All the fault of the slowdown is in public spending and the drop in consumer demand. The most evident consequences of such a scenario are visible in the reduction of Indian industrial production (also here the slowest growth rate of the last six years), collapse of manufacturing growth (which stands below 1% in the June-August period, compared to + 10% in 2018) and private consumption as well (-3.1% compared to 7.3% in the previous year). In short, a hecatomb that prompted the World Bank to speak of a serious cyclical slowdown. In Conclusion, there are two main causes of India's economic slowdown. First of all, the local demand has fallen dramatically. The measures taken in the previous months by the government of Narendra Modi, including the bizarre and sudden demonetization, with which in 2016 the authorities withdrew all the 500 and 1000 rupee banknotes in circulation, or almost 90% of the cash in the pockets of the population, they helped curb consumption just when India needed the boost from its middle class. Afterward, the bad Indian financial sector further contributes to hindering growth. Nevertheless, India continues to grow, but it does so by slowing down more and more. And this is a paradox because as the GDP rises, the country's economic structure creaks dangerously. The World Bank report expresses concern, especially in the long run, because the slowdown could create new problems for New Delhi to restore its disastrous government budget. A future to be written. The Indian central bank has cut interest rates five times in order to revive an economy that just doesn't intend to give signs of life. Yet despite this, the World Bank continues to see a "growth potential" in India, which, according to forecasts, could emerge in 2020-21 and 2021-2022 with an increase in GDP of 6.9% and 7.2%. It may be true, but in the meantime, the Moody agency has reduced its growth forecasts in an even more pessimistic way than the World Bank has done. Unlike China, India has not been able to identify the sectors that would have allowed it to make a huge leap forward. While Beijing has targeted the financial and real estate sector, between reforms and counter-reforms, New Delhi has remained stuck in the stake, between demonetization and other incomprehensible economic policies. This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. And Subscribe. Thank You.

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