Sunday, December 29, 2019

Top 10 Black Swan Events That could Crash The Market in 2020 !!

It was rare in Europe to see a black swan, and nobody there thought one existed. This view was held for a thousand years. Until the Europeans arrived in Australia and were shocked to find that swans could be black. That's why its called a "Black Swan Event" - an event that nobody saw coming. A black swan is a metaphor for an event that comes as a surprise but has a massive impact on the market and is later rationalized. For instance, the 2008 housing downturn was such an event. Now it’s pretty clear why and how it happened, but only a few saw it coming in 2007. A black swan event is a term coined by Nassim Taleb which has three characteristics . It’s unpredictable. It has a massive impact. Afterward, everyone comes up with an explanation for it. Besides, one man's black swan event is another's false flag event. The fragility comes from being unaware of unexpected events. Easily, you can see a system that is incredibly fragile, and thus a Black Swan, though unexpected, can cause a very predictable disaster given the conditions. Black swans are events which are concave in nature, i.e., given our existing methods of forecasting, we ignore them. The idea is to have tests and their forecasts based on antifragility and then separating those outcomes which are completely possible given the current scenario. It is like the time paradox. If you go back in the past, the past might change entirely or not, i.e. if a possible event is predicted, it should be removed from the list of black swans as it might as well be predicted by many other people. But here again, is a catch of probability; if the masses anticipate it, it might be averted. However, like the CDs mania started after the 2nd quarter of '07 when the adjustable rates kicked in, the people rather than predicting the underlying's deteriorating value just went into buy and sell mode. Conclusion: Use the Mandelbrot set. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. The Stock market reaches a new all-time high mark one after another. This trend seems hard to break. However, the market is cyclical; what goes up eventually will have to come down. You only prepare for a black swan. You can't predict it, which means building systems in a way that they can take volatility. In case of 2008, crisis prediction is the cause of the black swan. The best indicator is called the "Bankster"; it means, when the majority of Banksters on Wall Street is short, then the market will crash. Banks borrow from the Fed at 0% interest. They charge me 22% on my credit card and no interest on my savings. When I get cold calls offering me up to $500,000, It is time to get out. Black swans are not unlikely events or necessarily negative events - they are events so outside history that they cannot be predicted, and how the world will react to them is not known. Unlikely negative events are modeled for all the time with probabilities and such. Nevertheless here is my serie of top ten plausible Black swan events for 2020 : #1. The trade war with China going from bad to brutal. #2. No Brexit Deal; A conflict with Iran and /or Venezuela that send oil prices soaring. #3. Amazon Stock Crashes. #4. A far-left candidate becomes serious contender for U.S. presidency in 2020. #5. The state of California Goes Bankrupt. #6. The US - EU Automobile tariffs dispute escalates. #7. Hong Kong protests go out of control. #8. The Italian Economy Collapses. #9. India-Pakistan conflict goes nuclear. #10. The Argentinian Economy Implodes. Investors always need to be ready for black swans descending onto the markets . That’s particularly the case during a Trump presidency, where a single tweet could destabilize relationships with long-time allies. If you are an Investor and aren’t aware of how the government shutdown and the debt ceiling could affect your portfolio, you are in for a surprise. Alongside trade and the effects on oil, this could be part of the reason why the stock market could crash. Mostly though, this in conjunction with the recent hawkish behavior of the fed, failed china trade deals, trump resignation and/or impeachment; this is all hinting at upcoming issues with the debt ceiling, which could lead to the black swan event of another default on USA credit. That's why I say diversify and use asset allocation based on age, among other things. Worry about the things you can control, and invest appropriately. Some say The biggest black swan event would be Donald Trump reelection. He is a disciple of "use the system" (bankruptcy) as his primary business tool in escaping his failed business ventures. He proudly announced this strategy during his campaign speeches, exposing the degree of his willingness to exploit the system for his own benefit, leaving a trail of unpaid taxes, unpaid payroll for the unfortunate employees, liens from tradesman who worked on his casinos and hotels, and wanton disregard to binding contracts with business partners and customers. This man will take America to bankruptcy and probably cause world war 3. Many, if not the vast majority of Trump supporters, believe that Trump is negotiating the final level-playing-field free trade agreement. In reality, Trump's policies are pushing the rest of the world (friend and foe) towards abandoning the U.S. one connection at a time. Once you understand the exponential function works and how our monetary system works, you'll understand that depression or even outright collapse is all but guaranteed. Often, this leads to war. The question is, what kind of war. The next Big Black Swan will be manufactured by the Oligarchs to kill off ~7 Billion people. Global war, fast-spreading disease, or total financial collapse will be the method. As the world has Peaked in energy production, things will get really bad, really fast if 8 Billion people are all competing for the remaining resources. Black Godzilla stomping through the financial world and impoverishing or killing most everyone. How is running up $1.2 Trillion in debt a year any better than Obama running up $800 Billion a year? Both Obama's and Trump's economies are FAKE economies. If they couldn't bleed the nation's credit card red to buy jobs, their total failure would be obvious. An economy dependent upon exponentially expanding debt needs to be taken down and replaced by an economy that can actually grow and develop on its own. We need an economy where jobs can be organically grown - not one where the government borrows to buy them into existence. Obama; Trump and the Fed have only blown another bubble built on borrowed and printed money. And as with all bubbles, it too will eventually implode. It matters not who you love or hate. A bubble is a bubble. Current market action in bonds and commodities suggest deflation is a real threat. In this environment, I would expect defensive tissues will continue to outperform those tied to economic expansion as declining rates and falling commodity prices suggest an economic contraction is likely underway. Sector rotation has been in this direction for three months now with Utilities, Consumer Staples, Real-estate, and healthcare the top-performing sectors. The fact gold is also performing well suggests the market is looking for more rate cuts that devalue the dollar relative to assets like gold that cannot be devalued. After ten years of throwing everything but the kitchen sink at it, not ONE of the central banks has been able to preempt deflation. Actually, this dates back longer to 1989, where the Bank of Japan has thrown so much monetary methadone in their economy. They still have nary a whiff of inflation. Remarkable that not one of them comprehend, that their very monetary policies are the catalyst of a mountain of unrepayable debt ($260 trillion globally now) which is one of the primary causes of the pernicious and many deflationary aspects of the current global economy. Monetizing everything and pulling forward consumption, has that very nasty habit of reaping what one sowed. This won't end well for anyone. All currencies are in a race to zero, and with the dollar as the primary reserve currency, it will reach an inflection point, where its devaluation will have a rapid and unexpected on-set, and decline far more quickly than all the other currencies have thus far. Then the hyperinflation here in the US will be unlike the world has seen for a while, and probably quite worse than the Weimar Republic. Witness how our government is burning through cash like trash. And that is why gold is performing so well right along with the defensive sectors of the market. But it's likely even the defensive sectors will fall as serious monetization gets underway. Only the gold and silver bulls will survive the global onslaught of monetization. Eventually, other commodities will come around but suspect that it will take a few years. Ray Dalio makes a case for actual currency devaluations, although as all fiat currencies are tied to each other, I'm not sure how that would be accomplished. I mean, if the euro is devalued against the dollar and then the dollar is devalued against the euro, they go nowhere as its all relative. Perhaps that is what has been going on since 2018 as gold is appreciating in terms of all currencies, even the dollar. So as the dollar has trended slightly higher against other currencies, gold, which typically trades inversely to the dollar, has not been flat to trending down. It gained a whopping 25% against the dollar as falling rates are bearish for currencies and bullish for gold. I'm not in the hyperinflation camp at this time, but I certainly am in the gold and silver camp. Wonder if the March 2019 Basil III, where gold was reclassified as a banking tier 1 asset for the first time since Bretton Wood in 1944 , had something to do with what is expected to be an onslaught of debt monetization. Central Banks around the globe have been big buyers of gold recently. Unfortunately, there is a substantial minority of poorly educated people who allow themselves to believe in a shadow they want to be their messiah. A person who believes Russia's KGB Chief is telling the truth, and OUR own 17 US Intelligence agencies are conspiring to say the Russians are actually really bad dudes. Trump wants his followers to believe, and some do that Russia is our friend. But Trump simply wants an excuse to remove sanctions against Russia, more specifically against the RUSSIAN BANK that is to finance his TRUMP TOWER MOSCOW project. At least VTB bank was going to prior to the whole Trump coverup lie about the project blew up in his face. Russia helping Trump get elected a simple business transaction for Trump. Trump gets re-elected, Trump removes Russian Sanctions. Trump receives hundreds of millions to build the largest tower in Europe. Trump gets richer. Russia Wins, Trump Wins, the U.S.A. loses. It's past time Traitorous Trump and Moscow Mitch are removed from office. They are as far from the patriots of this country as a politician can get. So Could The Biggest Black Swan Event Of 2020 , simply be the Orange Swan that could tweet at any moment? Happy New Year, Folks. This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. And Subscribe. Thank You.

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1 comment:

  1. So the video starts out claiming to be about black swan events, and ends up being about bashing the president. Maybe those who bury their heads in the sand will believe your BS, but I for one don't. If there was a true black swan down the road, it might happen if one of your socialist politicians were elected president. My black swan wish is that you end up with Black swan dropping on your head.


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