Could China become The Global Economic Superpower in 2050 and Why ?

If you asked people in the 1600s who would be the dominant global power, most would have said Spain. They would have been proven wrong within 100 years. If you asked people in the late 1800s who would be the dominant global power, most would have said Great Britain. Huge empire, coming out of the industrial revolution, huge navy, etc. And they would have been wrong within 50 years. If you asked people in the 1960s who would be the dominant global power, 50% would have said the US, 50% would have said the Soviet Union. Half of those people would have been proven wrong in a short 30 years. If you asked Americans in the 1980s who would be the dominant global power, I bet 60-70% might have said Japan. They would have been proven wrong in a mere 10-20 years. Shit happens. And it happens quickly. And that pace has only picked up as globalization takes hold. I think right now, and people by nature assume the US or China is going to dominate and continue dominating. And while that may ultimately prove to be correct, I think we should at least try to challenge that assertion. The US is in a very similar situation to Great Britain at the height of the industrial revolution. And this too shall pass. Maybe in 20 years. Maybe in 200. As an investor, I like to think in terms of odds. So here's a mental exercise: Let's pretend there is a 40% actual probability that China becomes the next great superpower (let's say that was plausible). But It seems like some people think that the number is closer to 80-90%. Basically, a foregone conclusion. I'd like to call that an overvalued asset. Betting on that is a low-return proposition. Now let's also pretend a country like Australia or Nigeria has a 1 in 10,000 chance of somehow becoming the next global superpower (maybe plausible), but it seems like people are effectively writing them off and pricing in a 1 in a million chance of that happening (if not lower). As an investor, I'd call that an undervalued asset, because if those assumptions are anywhere near correct, my expected value on that investment is 100 times. That mispricing is something we ought to pay attention to. I want to be prepared for the unexpected. Think of it as buying a cheap option. A lot could happen in 30 years. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. The EU doesn't have the cohesiveness. India won't even catch up to the US in terms of GDP until the middle of the century, and even then, it will be spending whatever surplus it has in building infrastructure that its people will be demanding. Russia's power is shrinking with her population, even while she's industrializing. Brazil's population is stagnant and hovers around 200 million. Moreover, her internal politics and focus aren't on becoming a military superpower. Japan's chances passed at the end of the '80s. So all we're left with is China. All estimates put China's GDP ahead of the US by 20 - 30 percent by 2050. But even then she won't have the same ability to project herself as the USA (though, will undoubtedly have a massive projection capability) because of three burdensome factors. The stagnant and aging population is not putting the same number of workers in the factories and will be heavily taxing the growing social security payments (that the Chinese public rightly demands). The oppressive government fears the Chinese people more than it does US hegemony. This requires a massive security state infrastructure that doesn't have a comparison in the west. China spends as much on internal security as she does on external defense. Rising wages in China eliminates the massive draw for textile manufacturers to set up shop in China, conversely requiring state investment to keep the economy going (not a bad thing to have wages rise). Even still, by 2050, China will only have half US's GDP PCI and will be needing a higher percentage of that wealth to pay for all of the above-mentioned necessities. This doesn't mean that the Chinese won't be a superpower and will not challenge the American hegemony. That's not even up for debate anymore. By 2030, China will likely be spending around the same amount as the US in its military. But China isn't an island. She has a powerful Russia to the north, Japan to the east, and India to the southwest. She's had less than desirable relationships with these three nations for the past century. The quest for raw materials will likely make China and Russia grow closer, while her relations with Japan and India will probably end up looking more like her relationship with the US. Friendly on the outside, simmering behind the curtains. Thus, the need for her status as a superpower. She will be interested in ensuring secure shipping lanes from the Mideast; Africa; South America; and even from North America, where the US and Canada are experiencing an energy boom, much of which will head to Asia. For the following reasons, I see China leading as a superpower in 2050. China has demonstrated the capability to innovate I’ve heard the saying that : The Google of India is Google; the Amazon of India is Amazon; the WhatsApp of India is WhatsApp. However, the Google of China is Baidu, the Amazon of China is Alibaba, the Whatsapp of China is Wechat Soon the Intel of China, the AMD of China, the Tesla of China, will make their way towards the world stage. Yes, part of that comes from forced technology transfer and reverse engineering. But those who say China can only copy, not invent, have somehow forgotten that the Chinese have always been great inventors. Or probably they have never heard anything about “Four Great Inventions of China” or “John Bull.” Truthfully, forced technology transfer, and reverse engineering is not new. What’s new in China is, they can manufacture it at half the time, and a quarter of the cost. China has infrastructure like no other. In most straightforward analogy possible: 4,000 years ago someone owned 500 goats, because, well, that’s as much goat milk he can sell to his village. Then someone invented the wheel, enabling him to sell ten times as much goat milk to ten other villages. If technology is the height of the sky scrapper, infrastructure is the foundation upon which wealth is built. Due to treacherous mountainous terrain, as of 2019, China builds 4,000+ km of expressway like that just finished in Gansu province so Chinese can drive 120km/h on it. 350km/h high-speed railway will be built after that. . 1. China has lifted poverty like no other. No country has lifted half poverty in less than 50 years except; China. Which lifted 88% of people out of poverty from 1981 to 0.7% in 2015. Again, the simple analogy works here. GDP growth is defined as follows : Growth equals Consumption, plus Exports minus Imports plus Government Spending. With the exception of a few economies, consumption is always the most significant contributor, especially if they have at least one billion citizens. Any country that takes the lead must have the power to redistribute the wealth to its citizens, increasing their welfare, and resulting in higher consumption. Poverty is a trap and is severely hard to escape from. So in most cases, the responsibility relies on the government. Poverty is a very chronic sign of a country’s lack of ability or interest to increase consumption. 2. China’s leaders work for the best interest of the Chinese. While Donald John Trump spent his youth in a penthouse with a golden-coated marble toilet, the Chinese leader Xi Jinping spent his childhood in the 1970s in a cave without electricity or water. Xi’s father is a political elite, yet he lived in a cave without electricity, water, and fleas, and bed bugs. In a village with 20 Dollars GDP per capita, young Xi dug out village excrement to make fertilizer; sold his motorbike (which is a luxury back then) to buy a water pump; developed agriculture; made the village prosperous; and made his career as the village’s party secretary. Xi is not unique. China has 80 million officials, most of them volunteered themselves, and each of them did the climbing on the social ladder based on merit. Seriously, if you have 80 million to choose, how many self-serving, dishonest, corrupt, incompetent officials made it barely halfway to the top? And if officials willingly dug shit for their village, will they sit idly while poverty and inequality run through China? 3. China doesn't have democracy. Democracy is a useful tool if used properly. However useful as any tool would be, anyone can use it at the cost of everyone else. China has billions of people, and most of them have no idea how to run a country, what’s best for the economy or foreign relations, etc. If they were given the power of democracy, it could backfire if not used properly. So China created a system upon the belief that the right to vote must be earned. But people have concerns, and they need to voice their concerns, so China has representatives. Those volunteers aren’t paid either, and not even a politician. One-third of them are farmers, shepherds, fishermen. Since they are ordinary folk like you and me, they are willing to listen, and pass it all the way upwards to Xi Jinping, if necessary. More importantly, if Chinese not having the right to vote is a huge concern for you, shouldn’t you be more concerned with the innocent citizens living in war-torn hell like Libya and Iraq? Or shouldn’t you be more concerned about how much you have contributed to your country? If your country has the same system as China, have you earned your right to vote? Even though China will likely become a superpower. I admit that by the time that happens, the importance of "superpowers" will be diminished. During the US's tenure as a superpower, there was nobody else. The rest of the world was too poor or occupied to prevent another war (Europe, Japan, and Korea). But now, nations are far richer. Brazil, India, China, Japan, and the EU are gaining significant amounts of global power and influence. By the time China takes its seat like a real, global superpower, the age will have faded. We really are living in a global environment. The advancing technologies we make will be making other technologies that we don't make. Automation and AI (no matter how "strong" it is), will be advancing our tech at rates many times what we have today. The time of superpowers is fading fast. I don't believe that anybody will replace the US; it will simply fade as a "thing" people need and have. This video absolutely does not imply that China is superior as a country; neither does it mean other countries are inferior. Each country is great in its own way and has the potential to greatness. It is just that China has progressed far enough, and has sufficient means to lead the economy of the world in 2050. This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. And Subscribe. Thank You.












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