Jim Rogers : Warning To Japan !! -- Economic Collapse -- Stock Market Crash

Famed American investor Jim Rogers is warning in a new book that the worst economic downturn in his lifetime is around the corner and that Japan’s future is in jeopardy unless it takes serious steps to deal with staggering debt and a declining birth rate. "Japan's national debt is going to swell due to the Olympics, and this can only lead to a bad outcome for ordinary citizens," Global investor Jim Rogers wrote in a new book entitled Warning To Japan. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. When Japan rose from the ashes of war to host the Olympics in 1964, it impressed the world with its urban infrastructure and avant-garde technology like its high-speed train and marked its emergence on the world stage as a global superpower. But Japan today is very different, said famed global investor Jim Rogers. While Rogers is predicting that the 2020 Summer Olympics, also commonly known as Tokyo 2020 would bring a short-term boost to the japanese economy, he said it would presage a longer-term downturn given that there is no solution in sight to a slew of socioeconomic issues like a shrinking and fast-aging population, the lack of gender equality, the reluctance to embrace immigration, low productivity, and a little appetite for disruption. "Japan's national debt is going to swell due to the Olympics, and this can only lead to a bad outcome for ordinary citizens," Jim wrote in his new book, Warning To Japan. The book, which is published in Japanese, comprises interviews with Oxford-educated entrepreneur Hakuei Kosato. It has cracked bestsellers' lists and was reprinted six times within one month of its release in July. Japan's ballooning public debt now stands at 240 percent of its GDP, gross domestic product, and all previous attempts to bring the nation back to fiscal health have been postponed. The target of fiscal 2020 was pushed back to 2025, and yet even the most optimistic estimates now suggest this is implausible. "There was such a long period of astonishing prosperity when everything worked," Mr. Rogers said in an interview. "But Japan got so rich, so successful, that... it resulted in huge protectionism." Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has tried to change things, but Mr. Rogers said many policy measures serve only to kick the can down the road rather than go far enough and try to obtain some concrete results. "If there was somebody in Japan who will say, we got to bear this pain; we have to sort this out. And if we don't, the 10-year-olds in Japan today will have no future," he said. "But the problem is that the politicians in power today don't want to do that. They know if they cause the pain, it is not going to be good for them." Japan, pressured by global headwinds, downgraded its economic outlook to "worsening" this month. Among other things, it is facing sluggish exports in part due to a trade war between the United States and China, and an ongoing boycott of Japanese goods in South Korea. And while Mr. Rogers acknowledges Japan has opened up to foreigners under a new "specified skills" visa scheme for blue-collar workers launched in April, he said the influx needs to be more drastic to make an impact. Japan is already facing a glut of jobs. The unemployment rate was 2.2 percent last month when there were 159 job openings for every 100 job hunters. But the visa program, under which up to 345,150 foreigners are to be welcomed by March 2024, has been off to a tepid start. This has raised interrogations about whether they want to work in Japan, and whether the locals are welcoming enough to these overseas workers. Only about 600 people, mostly from South-east Asia, have been granted the visa, despite the fact the government wants to woo 47,550 foreigners in the program's first year. "They're opening up a little bit, but not nearly enough," he said. "It's simple arithmetic. The population is going down, and they're not having babies. It is straightforward but overwhelming and frightening for their future." Fewer than 900,000 Japanese babies are expected to be born this year, marking a new low. The population, now at 126.4 million, is expected to shrink to 88 million in 45 years. A forecast by the Japan Centre for Economic Research showed that Japan would lose its status as the world's third-largest economy by 2060, overtaken by India and Germany. Mr. Rogers said this could be why the Japanese have been so hesitant to have children, even if the government drafts policy measures to incentive the fertility rate. "Few people have any confidence; they know, consciously or subconsciously, that there is something wrong," he said. "Maybe somebody will change things, but I'm afraid I don't see that happening right now. There are too many entrenched interests." Japan ordered women into the workforce to boost GDP per capita, which works short-term. So instead of one mother producing four engineers and two more mothers, each woman soldered 10,000 motherboards for minimum wage and is dying alone with a cat. I can't feel sorry for the men, this spawn of Samurai, supposedly. They are still asking "what happened". Why is the birth rate falling? Why are women not wanting beta-cuck losers for sex? The more feminists sneer at something, the more hysterical they are about it, the more accurate it is. There is nothing happier than a woman who is pregnant, barefoot, and in the kitchen. The Japs had that straight and were rampaging across the Pacific and Asia, conquering like old school Genghis Khan. Now, look at them. It just goes to show that forever growth (especially that based upon growing population numbers) is not necessary for the average person to have a good life and a clean and stable society. Only big business requires ever-growing numbers. If a company's sales were frozen at 4 billion per year and it could pay out 4.00/share, it is much more valuable than an Uber or even Microsoft (that never paid out dividends) as well as the other tech companies that seem never to make an actual dollar in the black. The Japanese scenario is bleak. Since the bursting of the Japanese bubble in the early 1990s, growth has been stagnating, wage levels have been plunging, and a growing number of people have been forced into precarious jobs. The so-called Abenomics, an immense Keynesian spending program financed by the central bank, has failed so far to jumpstart the ailing economy. Instead, statistics are interpreted and designed creatively. We are all Japanese. All the assets are in the hands of the .0001%. They only reason the governments print money is at the behest of the elite who complain that their sales are down and their interest payments aren't being collected. It's the fatal flaw of capitalism - there is no reset button. All the money eventually ends up in a few hundred peoples' hands. We have been here before in the 1900s with the robber barons. We are here again - the Forbes 400 has more wealth than the bottom 3.5 billion people combined. Think about how similar our current times are to then. We are fighting over the same things- income inequality, immigration, tariffs, monopolies, trust-busting, etc. Japan, though, seems to have a lot of money to spend. They are investing hundreds of billions in industrial investments and acquisitions all over the world. In fact, Japan outspends China almost 2:1 in overseas projects. China gets the fanfare, and Japan does the quiet legwork. Everyone is turning Japanese. Japan leads the way, and everyone followed like lemmings going over a cliff. The UK, the US, Euro-zone, and China: The sequence of events: Debt fuelled boom Minsky moment Balance sheet recession China was the lemming that looked down before it went over the cliff; they saw their Minsky Moment coming. The Australian and Canadian lemmings will be going straight over the cliff. They haven’t got a clue what they are doing. Japanification is technically known as a balance sheet recession. Shall we find out what it is, they have had thirty years to study it in Japan. Japan had its debt-fuelled boom in the 1980s and have been repaying that debt ever since. Debt repayments to banks destroy money and so the money supply shrinks (debt deflation). The money supply equals public debt plus private debt The “private debt” component was going down, and the Japanese maintained the money supply with Government borrowing to keep debt deflation at bay. Richard Koo shows the ridiculous levels of bank reserves built up by the FED, BoE, ECB, and Bank of Japan that can’t get into the real economy due to the lack of borrowers. We saved the banks but left the debt in place. The banks are ready to lend, but there aren’t enough borrowers, which is why inflation has remained so subdued, just like Japan for the last thirty years. economics in Action #1) Capital Flight: When economy A (Japan, EU) has a return on capital that is excessively low, capital leaves economy A for another economy with higher capital returns, such as the US. #2) Economy A uses Dollars for US investments because the US does not accept Yen or Euros for US investment. The Dollars were earned via their exports into the US. Their dismal currency values made their goods artificially low in price to the US markets. They subsidized the US. This is good when US imports are for things the US does not want to make. It's not good when they supply everything. #3) Since the US is running a substantial fiscal deficit, it needs to sell a lot of debt via the UST. Thankfully, Economy A is being run into the ground via bad monetary policy. The capital flight from Economy A into the US buys down US financing rates, also repatriating capital from Economy A back into the US. #4) Japan and the EU are both being run into the ground via their respective monetary policies, which are a function of government policy. They are printing their way into prosperity, or so they think. US debt is being subsidized by the bad economic policy in the EU and Japan. #5) If rates were Zero interest-rate again in the US, this would not exist since there would be no reason for capital to come from Economy A into the US. Rates would be equally low everywhere. Thus, in the US, if Zero interest-rate existed, there would be no interest income, hence less reason to save. Open borders for labor would cause wages to go down in the US, adding even less to savings. Printed money would replace saved capital. Asset bubbles would replace interest income. Open borders would also provide the lowest cost items available. Prices would fall except for those items with inelastic demand, such as education, health care, health insurance, farmer costs, and carbon credits due to a renewed interest in global warming. The rich would get richer. Everyone else would have what they were allowed to have. #6) In 2016, the scenario in point 5 actually existed except for the carbon credits. It got cut short because Hillary lost the election. Carbon credits were likely two years away. #7) Points 5 and 6 document why the Globalists and their Establishment flunkies hate President Trump so much. Even though Trump wants lower rates, I don't think he wants them to go back to Globalist Zero interest-rate levels again. #8) Disrupting the Globalist supply chain by any legal means necessary is saving the life of the US. There is no real economy left to jump-start. We've reached peak consumption and peak production and especially on human effort/strength. Just how many more TVs, cars, houses, jeans, shirts, phones, computers, etc. Do we need and can we make it. Just how much more crap can we possibly need or buy? There’s no real money; everything is an illusion for a long time. Master magicians are running out of “one more act”! Japan is the poster child and living proof that low-interest rates do not guarantee economic growth and prosperity. The whole world is on a path that mirrors the same unsuccessful way taken by Japan since its bubble economy popped decades ago. It is a path that avoids real reform and bails out the very people that caused many of our problems. The Bank of Japan is not only expanding its balance sheet but pumping up the market by jumping into the ETF market. All this has morphed into a program that seems to share a key focus on doing "whatever it takes" to keep the economy moving forward. This is just another way to nationalize debt.














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