Japan vs. China : Why does Japan see China as a Threat not as an Opportunity?

China and Japan are two vastly different countries with a difficult past and history with each other. Both are super powers in Asia, but are very different in almost every way imaginable. In geopolitical terms China is a nightmare for Japan. China occupies the whole continental East Asia and puts Japan in a corner. Imagine a Europe in which France, Germany, Italy, Benelux get united and leave only Britain outside. Britain will have no chance to bargain or influence the continental Europe (what is happening now). Historically Japan’s strategy was to block, undercut, or keep China divided so much as possible. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. In 1905 after the first Sino-Japanese war Japan demanded the annexation of Liaodong Peninsula, which would block the whole Chinese northern plains and broke the barrier of the Bohai sea, which otherwise was a Chinese domestic lagoon. This was found by the Western powers to be too much, under whose pressure Japan exchanged Liaodong for Taiwan, which in its term would block the Yangtze estuary, the most prosperous region of China. During 1912 - 1931 Japan tried all its best to keep China divided under several equally strong warlords and keep them kill each other. In 1931 Japan found Manchurian warlord was launching a very promising industrialization program, it annexed Manchuria. In the following years it encouraged the splitting of North China and Inner Mongolia. In 1937 Japan sensed that China’s Yangtze Delta was experiencing a boom of economy, it started the second Sino-Japanese war. Eventually due to a series of misstep, the China adventure landed Japan in a disaster. Up to 2001 China’s WTO entry ; Japan has an informal investment ban on China. On several occasions Chinese side sought the industrial co-operations from Japan, which were categorically rejected. At the same time Japan provided a huge amount of Overseas Development Aide to China, only to encourage China to stay in raw materials, timber, and agricultural goods production (for which many Japanese think even today that China should be thankful). But since the economic crisis of 1997 when the Japanese business in Southeastern Asia was flattened, the rise of China as a manufacturing hub has become inevitable. Most Japanese companies entered China reluctantly only when they realized that, if they stayed out, they would be rolled over by the bus. But when they came to China, the Chinese market was largely occupied by other developed countries, mainly the Europeans, later also the Americans. Until today China is the largest overseas automobile market for Germany, France, and the US. German VW, French Citroën, and American Buick, which are hardly seen elsewhere Asia, are ubiquitous in Chinese cities. China’s market is the major reason that German VW has become the largest automobile manufacturer of the world since 2016. Political relations between Japan and China have always been less than perfect due to history but it's not right to say that Japan never saw it as an opportunity. Japanese and Chinese companies have for a long time and continue to have business relations. What country does Japan export the second most to? What country does Japan import the most from? That's right China. And Japan very much still takes its export seriously in its economic strategy which is why the Japanese central bank tends to like it with the Yen devalues. An argument could be made about the whether the net benefit is more or less but many people/companies from both countries benefited from these trades. Japanese brands are also a thing in China (even if they are not the most popular) which is saying a lot for a country like China that controls its economy so closely. South Korea (which also have similar historical problems with Japan) didn't even allow Japanese imports until 1998, which is a harsher policy for a relatively more capitalistic economy that works with the same huge ally as Japan (the US). It's also important to note that Japan isn't the only one who has concerns about China flexing its muscles in the region. Many South East Asian countries like the Philippines as well as Australia have had their own relationship issue with China. This is one of the reasons why the TPP agreement was for, it was to counterbalance China's influence before the US under Trump backed out because they didn't like the deal. Even though experiencing the “Lost 20 years” , Japan is still a developed country,unlike China . Japan is still rich. It is true that economic benefit is important to Japan, but compared to the status of the country economic becomes the second. Japan was defeated and occupied by America after the WWII. 70 years passed, the status of being occupied is softened as alliance of America, but the fact of defeat is curved into their constitution. Japan is still not a NORMAL country. And the rulers of Japan never had a chance to change that status nor to gain the glory as a world power player once their grandfathers had again. The rise of China is a great chance for Japan to change everything. By seeing a rising China as a great threat, authority of Japan gain supports from both America and ordinary Japanese. President Trump even showed the possibility of allowing Japan to own nuclear weapon. PM Abe’s LDP is nowadays the only player left in the power game of Japan, and their rivals all collapsed. Japan did EVENTUALLY saw China as an opportunity and a reasonably friendly neighbor, until PRESIDENT Xi Jinping came along. Until then, many Japanese saw the next door giant with almost a romantic sense of naïveté. No one seriously thought that some decades old grudge would be brought back from the grave where it rightly belonged. Japanese foreign affairs bureaucrats had poor understanding of the new premier, and saw the Senkaku literally blow up in their faces. MOFA people thought they had briefed the Chinese government on what they were doing, why they were doing it, and it was a means of preserving the status quo around an old and previously unimportant disagreement, through their usual channels. But this new China under the new leader was something other than usual. Japan characteristically is bad at several things, and this particular episode hit two of Japan’s weakness like a train wreck. One is lack of aptitude in intelligence and diplomacy and other is in facing unpleasant realities. Some terrifying transformation has taken place and the giant gentle panda next door is …something else now. We missed it completely. And Japanese had been in denial about what exactly it had been diligently feeding all these years. China is a massive market and a huge opportunity, for many. Japan had every reason to support it and it did for decades. But if said market and opportunity is something that can be used as a weapon, a hostage to put us in a bad negotiating position on every survival related issue then the opportunity suddenly becomes a threat. If said market is a place where we would be forever inherently discriminated for some imaginary slights then the logical action is to stop it becoming more important in any way possible. Much like most other countries, Japan views China as an opportunity, but has good reason for considering China a threat. So let’s pull off the band-aid. A lot of people in Asia continue to hate Japan, even though many also love Japanese products and some pop culture - and this is a hatred that is passed down from one generation to the next. Most governments have made their peace with Japan, including China, and Japan has issued any number of apologies. However that hasn’t been acceptable to many, and many act as if the atrocities of World War II (and the Japanese Empire) were yesterday. It is very discouraging to try to do business in good faith when the people you are trying to do business either openly hate you, or they support those who openly hate you. Even very, very minor incidents can ignite open hatred (and hopefully not violence). I am going to generalize in a way that I think will make some sense. After wars are over and a few decades go by, Western countries tend to cool down and get back to doing business with one time enemies (there are always some individuals who can’t get over it, but most do). It has very little to do with various forms of contrition by leaders but rather a very pragmatic outlook of the population. You have the opposite in the Far East - nobody really wants to break the peace, but nobody wants to forgive and forget. Japan is an industrial power since second world war. China emerged as a military power with large scale industrial activities. China has a large population and land area. China emerged as the second economic power after USA with an economy size of 13 trillion dollars. Japan remained at 5 to 6 trillion dollars economy. China extended its influence to Australia, South east Asian countries, Africa and South America. Chinese companies purchased some large oil companies of Canada. China dominated the metals, alloys, chemicals, textiles, electronics and energy sectors. Japan dominated in automobiles and consumer electronics. Due to show of military strength in the south and north China sea all the adjoining countries are not comfortable with the growth of China. There is some dispute regarding some islands between China and Japan. china forcibly occupied some islands in south and north China sea. Petroleum exploration by Vietnam japan and other countries are opposed by China. China behaved like a big brother in that region and with neighbours. Japan sees China as a Threat , Because the US sees China as a threat and not an opportunity. Japan, of course, has its own feelings towards China, but they are irrelevant. China policy is important and does not allow critical differences. On China, when the US does one thing, it’s simply impossible for Japan to do a different thing. When the US wanted a blockade, Japan didn’t sell. And when the US opened trade, Japan opened as well. The dilemma for Japan is that it is economical giant but political&military dwarf. We live in a world where Japan lost the WWII, and this is what it is. Losers can’t be choosers. China is both a potential opportunity and a potential threat at the same time for Japan and the West!












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