War Iran vs. USA -- Different Scenarios explained !!









The facts are simple: Washington and Tehran are locked into a long-term geopolitical contest throughout the Middle East that will span decades—a similar contest in many ways to Washington and Beijing’s battle for influence in the Asia-Pacific and wider Indo-Pacific regions. Over the long term, the U.S.-Iranian struggle throughout the Middle East could very well be a mini-Thucydides trap, to steal the phrase from my beloved Harvard’s resident geostrategic guru, Graham Allison—the classic tale of how when a rising power meets an established power, war is oftentimes the most common result (eleven out of fifteen times, per Allison). So why would a war with Iran be much harder for the US military than the Iraq War? Because its sheer size for starters. Iran is over 3 times the size of Iraq . It also has double the population. The biggest problem is there is no realistic invasion route. In the south along the gulf stretching all the way up to the border with Turkey, you have the Zagro Mountains. Any mechanized force trying to move north would become quickly trapped by small bands of fighters. Tanks and APCs aren’t ideal for those conditions. Invading from Pakistan/Afganistan doesn’t work either because you have to cross vast stretches of empty desert before again, hitting those mountains. Your supply lines would be way to long. Invading from Iraq is also blocked by the Zagroes as well as marshes in the south that Iran flooded after Iraq invaded in 1980. The troops that marched to Baghdad in 2003 did so over pretty much flat terrain. But that's not the case with Iran. You would basically need every single able bodied Marine, airmen and soldier to invade and that’s not realistic. Plus trying to provide security throughout a nation that size. Talk about an ideal place for guerilla warfare. You also have the Hezbollah factor. It’s no secret that they’ve had agents operating here in the US. They also have plenty of surface to surface missiles with which to target places like Saudi Arabia and the gulf states. Now obviously, you can wage an air war but again, the sheer size of the country gives it a lot of places to hide. Iran’s military isn’t great, but fighting them on their soil stacks the deck much more against the US than it was in Iraq. If the U.S.A try to invade Iran, they will have to deal with a very high, organized, and large resistance, for Iran is quite the big target, even for Uncle Sam : Almost 2,000,000 square kilometers, contiguous with Afghanistan and Shiah regions of Iraq which de facto makes it even bigger, Mountain, desert, SAM, mountain, desert, SAM. Even better for vehicles than the jungle was for foot-soldiers and bombers, on a land 4 times bigger than Afghanistan ! more than 80,000,000 proud inhabitants, who love their country and hate much more America than they dislike their own Leaders. with a very patriotic core in and around this very regime, with an 1,000,000+ men (active + reserve) strong army that was preparing for an American invasion for decades. with thousands of armors, hundred of planes and helicopters, various air-defense up to Russian S300, and ballistic capabilities convertible in nuclear ballistic capabilities more quickly than one might think. Iran has its own domestic military industry (tanks, planes, missiles, etc) to supply the army, its own domestic oil production and huge strategic reserves to supply the army, 1,400,000 persons reaching military age each year. Iran also has its own proxies-network out of Iran, as demonstrated in Syria. Which could lay waste on the whole Gulf (Iraq, Saudi Arabia) oil production, and hence lead the World in a crisis of which the U.S would be deemed responsible for. Russia and China in its back to at least provide weaponry, and base commodities, if needed, while Russian oil would replace Saudi oil in Europe, The truth is, America’s current all-volunteer force is already pushed very near its limits. Even with the Trump administration cutting it back, our NATO commitments are still a thing. We have longstanding commitments in South Korea that we really can’t withdraw troops from. We have boots on the ground, to one degree or another, in Afghanistan, Syria, and even some still in Iraq. The Navy must still maintain open sea lanes the world over. Any further military adventures, no matter where, no matter the “modernity” of the opposing nation, will exceed the abilities of the current all-volunteer force. The USA can defeat any single nation in the world with one arm tied behind its back, on military grounds. The draft won’t be necessary. The problem isn’t seizing territory, it’s holding it. Occupations and counter-terrorist work by the USA have been a long succession of failures - not because of the soldiers on the ground.But Because of a lack of clear vision from the higher-ups regarding precisely what military force is supposed to achieve in such a scenario. And if Iran closes the strait of Hormuz as it has many times threatened to do , this will choke the global economy .The Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz are crucial not just to regional security, but also to the global economy. Tankers carrying about 17 million barrels of oil a day shimmy through the narrows, accounting for about one-third of all oil traded by sea globally. The strait is also a key conduit for shipments of liquefied natural gas, especially from Qatar. For countries that import oil or gas — including the United States, developed Asian economies, and increasingly, China . Keeping Hormuz open to maritime traffic is crucial. There is very little the USA could effectively do from a military perspective. Destroying the Iranian navy would be irrelevant because Iran can close the strait with land based anti-ship missile batteries protected by an umbrella of advanced surface-to-air missiles and defended by several brigades of Revolutionary Guards. The USA would literally have to invade Iran in a full out war to reopen the strait. I doubt the USA has the ability to invade Iran, defeat all conventional Iranian forces, avoid getting into a conflict with Russia and China over this, and then defeat all Iranian insurgents.








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