Saturday, August 17, 2019

After Hong Kong is Taiwan next !?










Is Taiwan the region’s next and perhaps bigger flashpoint? As protests in Hong Kong take to the streets to fight the rising power of China, a younger generation of Taiwanese is also confronting an increasingly hardline attitude from its nearest neighbor. The island of Taiwan is administered by the Republic of China, which lost the Chinese Civil War to the Communists which control the mainland to this day, proclaiming the People's Republic of China in 1949. Both the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China claim to be the legitimate government of China. Taiwan is a de facto independent country but is not a member of the United Nations since being replaced in 1971 by the People's Republic of China. The People's Republic of China is recognized as an independent country only by 27 countries around the world . The current situation is stuck in a stalemate with the two ways of resolving the dispute , unification or independence . There is a general belief that once Beijing’s “one country, two systems” policy toward Hong Kong is terminated, Taiwan would be next.And there is a considerable doubt whether the United States could defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack, or even whether it would attempt to do so.There is no way Washington could send two carriers into the Taiwan Strait, as it did during the 1996 crisis, causing Beijing to back down from its threat to subjugate the island.Having determined that it never again would be forced to submit to such a humiliating retreat, the Chinese Communist government has spent the past two decades modernizing and expanding its forces to respond to any potential threat of American attack. Indeed, many analysts doubt whether American carriers could even operate within what has been termed “the first island chain” , Japan, northern Philippines and Taiwan , which is now within the range of Chinese land-based DF-21D and DF 26 anti-ship ballistic missiles. The United States has been committed to the security of Taiwan since the 1949 communist takeover of the mainland. It has maintained that commitment ever since, the 1979 China Relations Act’s recognition of the People’s Republic by Washington notwithstanding. At a time when American reliability is being questioned around the world, signaling uncertainty about America’s ability to defend Taiwan would further undermine Washington’s standing as a credible ally, especially in East Asia. Taiwan and China have been at loggerheads since the island broke away from the mainland when the civil war ended 70 years ago but there’s a new militancy in China’s rhetoric towards what it sees as its renegade province. The Taiwanese islands of Kinmen, are the last outpost against the mainland, where only a five kilometer strait separates them from China. The reality of living in the shadow of it’s old enemy means Taiwan still operates as if on a war footing. It’s not just Taiwan’s rogue status that has Beijing worried, it’s the emerging success of its democracy . In June this year, a senior Chinese General publicly issued this warning: ‘If anyone dares to split Taiwan from China, our military has no choice but to fight at all costs – for national unity’. In fact for China ,Taiwan is an integral part of its territory .At the end of the Second World War, the Cairo Declaration clearly stated that Japan returned Taiwan and the Penghu Islands to China and established the fact that Taiwan belongs to China. In the international community, China is a country whose territory includes the mainland + Taiwan! . During the civil war between the Kuomintang and the Chinese Communist Party, the Communist Party won, and China changed its name to the People’s Republic of China! However, Taiwan is the territory that the Communist Party did not win ! Therefore, Taiwan is still outside the jurisdiction of the Communist Party! China is generally considered to be the People's Republic of China. So can Taiwan Resist China's Power and Influence? . Only time will tell , and may be it is now just a matter of weeks .














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