Saturday, September 9, 2017
HOW NORTH KOREA HAS TURNED THE TABLE ON CHINA ?
China has made little secret of its long-term goal to replace the United States as the major power in Asia and assume what it considers its rightful position at the center of the fastest-growing, most dynamic region in the world. But North Korea, which defied Beijing by testing a sixth nuclear bomb, has emerged as an unexpected and persistent obstacle. In this video, Defense Updates looks at HOW NORTH KOREA HAS TURNED THE TABLES ON CHINA AND HAS BECOME A MAJOR HURDLE IN ITS PATH? BACKGROUND Mao founding father of the People's Republic of China was often quoted in the West as saying that North Korea and China are “as close as lips and teeth.” But his actual words, an ancient Chinese idiom, are better translated, “If the lips are gone, the teeth will be cold.” He was warning that China would be in danger without North Korea. In 1950, Mao sent more than one million Chinese soldiers, including his own son, into the Korean War to help the North fight the United States. NORTH KOREA AS BUFFER China has supported and reinforced North Korean military mainly because of 2 factors: 1. Shield to Japan. North Korea has been publicly against Japan. China and Japan have been rivals having territorial disputes. China sees North as a strategic leverage against Japan. 2. Shield to the US: Almost all analysts will agree that should the war start in Korean Peninsula, South Korea, with the support of the US, is bound to win. If this were the case, the US military will have access to the entire peninsula, and can drive its troops all the way to Chinese borders. NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION The origins of North Korea’s nuclear program can be traced to a deal in 1976 between an ailing , then the prime minister of Pakistan. In 1982, China shipped weapons-grade uranium to Pakistan. And in 1990, it opened its Lop Nur test site to Pakistan and secretly let the country test its first nuclear bomb there. Pakistan was in turn sharing nuclear enrichment technology with North Korea — including centrifuges, parts, designs and fuel essential for its nuclear bombs, in exchange for Korean missile technology and design help. Some analysts argue that Beijing was complicit in the deal, either encouraging Pakistan to share nuclear technology with North Korea or looking the other way as it happened. China allowed the transfers to occur through Pakistan to maintain plausible deniability. It can be safely said that without Chinese help, Pakistan’s as well as North Korea’s nuclear program wont be where it is today. U.S INFLUENCE & UNCONTROLLABLE NORTH The United States, despite signs of retreat in Asia under the Trump administration, remains the dominant military power. China’s path to dominance requires an American withdrawal and a message to American allies that they cannot count on the United States for protection. But North Korea threatens to draw the United States more deeply into the region and complicate China’s effort to diminish its influence. At the same time, the strategic location of the North — and its advancing nuclear capabilities — makes it dangerous for China to restrain it. A hostile North, will be as strategic catastrophe for China. Even if the United States steps back from the region, North Korea’s defiant stance and nuclear capability means China will never be able to dominate the region as much as its leaders today probably hope. POSSIBLE FALLOUT A three-day academic seminar in Shanghai last month brought together some critics, who question North Korea’s value to Beijing. It was warned that the North Korea’s nuclear program could prompt South Korea and Japan to develop nuclear weapons of their own. Both these nations are rivals to China, and this if these nations go nuclear; it will be a major setback to China’s ambitions in the region, as China will loose its strategic edge. CONCLUSION The Trump administration has bet on China to stop North Korea’s nuclear program, shunning talks with Mr. Kim and gambling that Beijing can be persuaded to use its economic leverage over the North to rein it in. But is this has been a total failure underlining the limited ability of China to influence North Korea. Recent Doklam standoff has also not gone well, with India making China pull back its troops. Further India and Japan, China’s traditional rivals in the region, have made clear that they intend to resist Chinese influence in the region with mutual strategic cooperation. South China Sea dispute is another important flashpoint that is already stretching Beijing militarily and diplomatically. So basically, China’s deeds is coming back to haunt it and rise of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities has thoroughly diluted its strategic leverages in the region at a time when it is being pushed back on multiple fronts.
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