A War Between the US Vs China Would Be World War 3 And Might Be Hard to Shut Off
US could barely survive the invasion of Iraq..China can wipe them out within hours by raining supersonic missiles on them.
military Update news a war between the 0:09 US and China would be world war three it 0:12 might be hard to shut off the windows of 0:14 war between the United States and China 0:16 will in all likelihood last for a long 0:19 time presenting the world will require 0:21 tremendous skill in the human from 0:23 diplomats and policymakers similarly the 0:27 demands of position either side for 0:28 victory will continue to tax diplomatic 0:31 military and technological resources for 0:33 the foreseeable future at the moment 0:36 however we shouldn't forget the china in 0:38 the United States constitute the heart 0:40 of one of the most productive economic 0:42 regions the world has ever seen how does 0:44 the unthinkable happened as historians 0:47 continue to contemplate the various 0:49 historic anniversaries around world war 0:51 one through next year the question of 0:53 unexpected Wars looms large watch series 0:56 of events could lead to war in asia and 0:58 how would the foreplay out the United 1:00 States and China are inextricably locked 1:02 in the Pacific Rim system of 1:04 international trade some argue that it 1:06 makes more impossible than welcome 1:08 believe world war one inevitable but 1:10 other similarly started impossible in 1:13 this article i concentrate less on the 1:15 operational and tactical details of the 1:17 us-china war and more on the strategic 1:19 objectives of the major competence 1:21 before during and after the conflict a 1:25 war between the United States and China 1:26 would transform some aspects of the 1:28 geopolitics of East Asia it would also 1:31 leave many crucial factors unchanged 1:33 tragically conflicts between China and 1:36 the US might be remembered only as the 1:38 first sino-american war how the war 1:41 would start 15 years ago the only 1:44 interesting how the war between the 1:45 people's republic of china in the United 1:47 States start involved this is over 1:50 Taiwan or North Korea a taiwanese 1:52 Declaration of Independence a north 1:54 korean attack on South Korea or some 1:57 similar triggering event will force the 1:58 PRCA in the u.s. reluctantly into war 2:01 this has changed 2:03 expansion of Chinese interests and 2:05 capabilities means that we can envision 2:06 several different scenarios in which 2:08 direct military conflict between China 2:10 and the United States might begin he 2:13 still include a taiwan scenario in North 2:15 Korea scenario but now also involve 2:17 disputes in the East and South China 2:19 Seas as well as potential conflict with 2:22 India along the Tibetan border the 2:24 underlying factors in the growth of 2:26 Chinese power Chinese dissatisfaction 2:28 with the us-led regional security system 2:30 and us alliance commitments to a variety 2:33 of regional states as long as these 2:35 factors hold the possibility for water 2:38 will endure whatever the trigger the war 2:41 does not begin with the u.s. pre-emptive 2:43 attack against Chinese sweet error in 2:45 line based installations although the US 2:48 military would prefer to engage in 2:50 destroy chinese and telling Access 2:51 assets before they can target us planes 2:54 basis and ships it is extremely 2:56 difficult to envisage a scenario in 2:58 which the United States decides to pay 3:00 the political costs associated with 3:02 climbing the ladder of escalation 3:04 instead of the United States needs to 3:07 prepare to absorb the first blow this 3:09 doesn't necessarily mean that the US 3:11 navy usn in US Air Force you have to 3:16 wait for chinese mrs. to rain down upon 3:18 them the United States will almost 3:20 certainly require some clear public 3:22 signal of Chinese intends to escalate 3:24 the high-intensity conventional military 3:26 combat before it can we can engage in 3:28 chinese forces history world war one 3:31 gives any education the plot will not 3:34 allow the United States to fully 3:35 mobilized in order to either launch a 3:37 first strike or properly prepared to 3:39 receive a first row at the same time a 3:42 bolt from the blue strike is unlikely 3:44 instead brewing prices will steadily 3:47 escalated over a few incidents finally 3:50 triggering a set of steps on the part of 3:51 the US military that indicates a baking 3:54 that Washington is genuinely prepared 3:55 for war 3:56 these steps will include searching 3:58 carrier groups shifting deployment to 4:00 Asia from Europe in the Middle East and 4:02 moving fighter squadrons towards the 4:04 Pacific 4:06 this moment China will need to decide 4:07 whether to push forward or back down on 4:10 the economic side king in Washington 4:13 will both press for sanctions the u.s. 4:15 effort will likely involved a 4:16 multilateral effort and will freeze each 4:18 other's assets as well as those of any 4:21 code insurance 4:22 this will begin the economic pain for 4:24 capital and consumers across the Pacific 4:26 Rim in the rest of the world the threat 4:28 of high-intensity combat will also 4:30 disrupt global shipping patterns causing 4:33 potentially severe body mix in 4:34 industrial production 4:36 how did the allies respond whether you 4:39 had allies support American efforts 4:40 against China depends on how the war 4:42 begins if war breaks out over a collapse 4:45 of the DPR clay the United States can 4:47 likely count on the support of South 4:49 Korea and Japan anymore stemming from 4:52 disputes in the East China Sea will 4:54 necessarily involve Japan events in the 4:57 South China Sea lead to war the u.s. can 4:59 probably rely on some of the SC in 5:01 states as well as possibly Japan 5:03 Australia may also support the US over a 5:06 wide range of potential circumstances 5:08 China faces a less complicated situation 5:11 with respect to allies they could 5:14 probably expect never neutrality 5:16 including shipment of arms inspectors 5:18 from Russia little more the primary 5:21 challenge for Chinese diplomats will be 5:23 establishing and maintaining the 5:25 neutrality of potential US allies this 5:28 would involve an exceedingly complex 5:29 dense including reassurances about 5:32 Chinese long-term intentions as well as 5:34 displays of confidence about the 5:36 prospects of Chinese victory which would 5:38 carry the implicit threat of retribution 5:40 for support of the United States North 5:43 Korea presents an even more difficult 5:45 problem any intervention on the part of 5:47 the DPRK runs the risk of triggering 5:49 Japanese and South Korean counter 5:51 intervention in that mask doesn't work 5:54 out for China unless basing his surgery 5:56 that Seoul and Tokyo will go throwing 5:58 for the United States doubtful prospect 6:01 given the possibility to one another 6:03 it may spend more time restraining t on 6:05 getting them pushing it into the 6:06 conflict to hold your breath moments 6:09 biggest moment will come when the plum 6:11 makes an overt attack against the US 6:13 aircraft area 6:14 this represents the most significant 6:16 possible escalation against the united 6:18 states short of a nuclear attack 6:20 it's China decides to attack a US 6:22 carrier the war no longer involved 6:24 posturing and message sending but rather 6:27 a full-scale commitment of capabilities 6:29 designed to defeat and destroy any 6:31 military forces that means for this 6:33 attack matters an attack launched from 6:36 the ship our summary makes any plan 6:38 military vessel fair game for the united 6:40 states that doesn't necessarily 6:41 encourage us attacks against our bases 6:44 second artillery missile installations 6:47 or even naval installations the most 6:50 dangerous form of attack would involve a 6:52 ballistic missile falling against 6:53 bacteria 6:54 this is true not simply because these 6:56 missiles are difficult to intercept but 6:58 also because such mrs. carry nuclear 7:00 warheads the prospect of a nuclear state 7:03 using a conventional ballistic missile 7:05 against another nuclear state especially 7:07 one with the presumptive nuclear 7:09 advantage is laden with complexity the 7:12 next hold your breath moment will come 7:14 when the first US missile strike Chinese 7:16 targets given the overwhelming nuclear 7:19 advantage that the United States holds 7:21 over China the first wave of us attacks 7:23 will prove deeply stressful to the PRC's 7:26 military and civilian leadership this is 7:28 particularly the case if the Chinese 7:30 believe that they can win the 7:31 conventional level of escalation they 7:33 were worried that the United States 7:35 nuclear in order to retain its advantage 7:38 we can expect the China will deployed 7:40 submarines in advance of the onset of 7:42 hostilities the surface fleet is a 7:44 different story however in any I 7:47 intensity combat scenario the US navy 7:50 usn and US Air Force will see Chinese 7:53 worships legitimate targets for 7:55 destruction and we'll attack with aaron 7:57 surface assets 7:58 indeed even hiding import probably won't 8:01 prevent attacks on the plains largest 8:03 ships including the carry only outing in 8:05 the big new amphibious transport ducks 8:07 china will only sorta the plan under two 8:10 circumstances it feels it has sufficient 8:13 force protection to allow task force to 8:15 operate relatively unmolested or China's 8:18 position and become desperate in either 8:20 situation us submarines will pose the 8:23 most immediate threat to the surface 8:24 forces under most war scenarios China 8:28 needs to fight first permanent purpose 8:30 not simply the destruction of us and 8:32 Japanese military forces this means that 8:35 the plane was conveyed capture supply 8:37 and defense and geographical point most 8:40 likely either Taiwan or an outpost to me 8:43 east or south china sea need to 8:45 establish the conditions under which the 8:47 plant and conduct surface support 8:49 missions who will win colon the most 8:53 difficult question to judges who will 8:55 win because the question involves 8:57 assessing wide variety of unknowns we 8:59 don't know how well Chinese anti-ship 9:01 ballistic missiles will function or how 9:03 destructive us cyber attacks against the 9:06 plan will prove or how dangerous the 9:08 f-22 Raptor will be the conventional 9:10 Chinese fighters or how effectively the 9:12 different elements of the plan will 9:14 cooperate an actual combat finally we 9:17 don't know when the war will start both 9:19 the plot in the US military will look 9:21 much different in 2020 than they do in 9:23 2014 how the war would end this war 9:27 doesn't end with the surrender signed on 9:29 the battle ship instead it ends with one 9:32 participant in vineyard in likely 9:35 preparing for the next round 9:36 the best-case scenario for an American 9:39 victory would be a result into the 9:40 collapse of the imperial german 9:42 government at the end of world war one 9:44 or the collapse of Leopoldo Galtieri is 9:46 military government after the Franklin's 9:48 conflict humiliating defeat in war 9:51 including the destruction of a 9:53 significant portion of the plan in the 9:54 plus as well as severe economic distress 9:57 could undermine the grip of the CCCP on 9:59 Chinese governance 10:01 this is an extremely if the prospect 10:04 however in the United States shouldn't 10:06 count on victory leading to a new 10:07 revolution wild china wins China can 10:10 claim victory by either forcing the 10:12 United States into an accommodation to 10:14 us goals by removing the Alliance 10:17 framework that motivates in legitimates 10:19 us action the United States cannot 10:21 continue the war South Korea Japan 10:23 Taiwan and the Philippines no longer 10:26 have an interest in fighting either of 10:29 these require doing significant damage 10:30 to u.s. military forces and potentially 10:33 to the US economy the impact of a defeat 10:36 on us domestic politics would be tough 10:39 to predict the United States has lost 10:41 was in the past recedes have generally 10:44 involves negotiated settlements of areas 10:46 not particularly critical to us global 10:48 interests 10:49 it's not clear how the u.s. people would 10:51 interpret a major military defeat at the 10:53 hands of a peer competitor especially 10:56 appear competitor that continues to grow 10:58 in military and economic power the 11:00 President and political party that led 11:02 the US and the world would likely suffer 11:04 dramatically at the polls at least after 11:06 the immediate shock defeat for off the 11:09 biggest diplomatic and political 11:10 challenge that both countries face will 11:12 probably be finding a way for the other 11:14 side to give up maintaining its owner 11:16 no one benefits of this war becomes a 11:18 struggle for regime survival or four 11:20 national prestige how the peace begins 11:23 the prospect for us conflict with China 11:26 and the asia-pacific depends on a basic 11:28 appreciation of the changing balance of 11:30 economic and military power world war 11:33 one could not change the fact that 11:34 Germany would remain the largest and 11:36 most powerful state and central europe 11:38 similarly war is unlikely to change the 11:41 long-term trajectory of Chinese growth 11:43 and assertiveness at2 piece involves 11:46 re-establishment of productive economic 11:47 relations between China the United 11:50 States and the rest of the Pacific Rim 11:52 regardless of how the war plays out it 11:55 will almost certainly disrupt patterns 11:57 of Trade and Investment around the world 11:59 either side decides to attack or more 12:02 likely inter commercial shipping the 12:05 impact to devastate firms and countries 12:07 that have no direct stake in the war 12:09 however the governments of both the US 12:11 and China will face strong pressures to 12:13 facilitate the resumption of all trade 12:15 relations at least in consumer goods 12:18 China will not find it difficult to 12:20 reconstruct for losses even if the 12:22 United States effectively in violates 12:25 the plan in the plus you can expect that 12:27 the Chinese shipbuilding than aviation 12:29 industries will replace most losses 12:30 within the decade probably with 12:32 substantial assistance from Russia 12:34 indeed significant Chinese war losses 12:37 complete invigorate both the Russian 12:39 ship building in aviation industries 12:41 moreover the role will by necessity 12:43 modernized blocked by destroying legacy 12:47 capability a new fleet of ships and 12:49 planes will replace the legacy force or 12:52 losses to trained personnel hurts the 12:54 experience gained in combat will produce 12:56 a new highly-trained affected court 12:59 personnel this will lead to better more 13:02 realistic training for the next 13:03 generations of PLAs soldiers sailors and 13:06 airmen lose the Chinese military will 13:09 likely be morally for a decade after the 13:11 war the United States may have a harder 13:14 time replacing losses and not only 13:16 because US warships and aircraft cost 13:18 more than their Chinese counterparts the 13:21 production lines for the f-15 and f-16 13:23 or near the end and the u.s. no longer 13:26 produces f-22 moreover us shipbuilding 13:30 has declined to the point that replacing 13:31 significant for losses could take a very 13:34 long time 13:34 this might prove particularly 13:36 problematic if the war demonstrated 13:38 severe problems with the f-35 Joint 13:40 Strike Fighter given us intention to arm 13:43 the u.s. usn and USMC with f-35 variants 13:48 over the next decade 13:49 automatic receiving direct force 13:51 planning for the foreseeable future 13:53 the united states will have to face the 13:55 with it worth it 13:56 question 13:58 victory or defeat the US will suffer 14:00 substantial military and economic damage 14:02 even if the US wins it will not solve 14:05 the problem of China even in the 14:07 unlikely event at the ccp collapses a 14:10 successor regime will still be China's 14:12 literal potentially could cement the 14:15 us-led Alliance system making the 14:17 containment of China considerably less 14:19 expensive assuming that the Lord began 14:22 with an assertive Chinese move in the 14:23 eastern South China Sea the United 14:26 States could probably paint China of the 14:28 aggressor and establish itself as the 14:30 focal point for balancing behavior in 14:32 the region Chinese aggression might also 14:34 spiritual allies especially Japan to 14:38 increase their defense expenditures 14:39 award can invigorate US government and 14:42 society around the long-term project of 14:44 containing China the US could respond by 14:47 redoubling its efforts to outpace the 14:49 Chinese military although this would 14:51 provoke an arms race that could prove 14:53 devastating to both sides however given 14:56 the lack of ideological or territorial 14:58 threats to the United States this might 15:00 be a tough sell 15:01 finally the United States could respond 15:04 by effectively removing itself from the 15:06 east asian political scene at least in 15:08 the military sense this option would be 15:11 hard for many in the u.s. to swallow 15:13 given the generations of American 15:15 foreign policy makers at Harvard 15:16 hegemonic ambitions conclusion the 15:19 window for war between the United States 15:21 and China will in all likelihood last 15:24 for a long time preventing the world 15:26 will require tremendous skill and the 15:28 humans from diplomats and policymakers 15:30 similarly the demands of positioning 15:33 either side for victory will continue to 15:35 tax diplomatic military and 15:37 technological resources for the 15:39 foreseeable future at the moment however 15:42 you shouldn't forget the china in the 15:44 United States constitute the heart of 15:46 one of the most productive economic 15:47 regions the world has ever seen 15:49 that's something to protect and to build 15:51 on Robert Farley is a senior lecturer at 15:54 the Patterson school of diplomacy and 15:56 international commerce is work includes 15:59 military doctrine national security and 16:02 maritime affairs 16:03 he blogs and lawyers guns and money and 16:06 information dissemination and the 16:07 diplomat
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