A War Between the US Vs China Would Be World War 3 And Might Be Hard to Shut Off

A War Between the US Vs China Would Be World War 3 And Might Be Hard to Shut Off 


US could barely survive the invasion of Iraq..China can wipe them out within hours by raining supersonic missiles on them.









military Update news a war between the 0:09 US and China would be world war three it 0:12 might be hard to shut off the windows of 0:14 war between the United States and China 0:16 will in all likelihood last for a long 0:19 time presenting the world will require 0:21 tremendous skill in the human from 0:23 diplomats and policymakers similarly the 0:27 demands of position either side for 0:28 victory will continue to tax diplomatic 0:31 military and technological resources for 0:33 the foreseeable future at the moment 0:36 however we shouldn't forget the china in 0:38 the United States constitute the heart 0:40 of one of the most productive economic 0:42 regions the world has ever seen how does 0:44 the unthinkable happened as historians 0:47 continue to contemplate the various 0:49 historic anniversaries around world war 0:51 one through next year the question of 0:53 unexpected Wars looms large watch series 0:56 of events could lead to war in asia and 0:58 how would the foreplay out the United 1:00 States and China are inextricably locked 1:02 in the Pacific Rim system of 1:04 international trade some argue that it 1:06 makes more impossible than welcome 1:08 believe world war one inevitable but 1:10 other similarly started impossible in 1:13 this article i concentrate less on the 1:15 operational and tactical details of the 1:17 us-china war and more on the strategic 1:19 objectives of the major competence 1:21 before during and after the conflict a 1:25 war between the United States and China 1:26 would transform some aspects of the 1:28 geopolitics of East Asia it would also 1:31 leave many crucial factors unchanged 1:33 tragically conflicts between China and 1:36 the US might be remembered only as the 1:38 first sino-american war how the war 1:41 would start 15 years ago the only 1:44 interesting how the war between the 1:45 people's republic of china in the United 1:47 States start involved this is over 1:50 Taiwan or North Korea a taiwanese 1:52 Declaration of Independence a north 1:54 korean attack on South Korea or some 1:57 similar triggering event will force the 1:58 PRCA in the u.s. reluctantly into war 2:01 this has changed 2:03 expansion of Chinese interests and 2:05 capabilities means that we can envision 2:06 several different scenarios in which 2:08 direct military conflict between China 2:10 and the United States might begin he 2:13 still include a taiwan scenario in North 2:15 Korea scenario but now also involve 2:17 disputes in the East and South China 2:19 Seas as well as potential conflict with 2:22 India along the Tibetan border the 2:24 underlying factors in the growth of 2:26 Chinese power Chinese dissatisfaction 2:28 with the us-led regional security system 2:30 and us alliance commitments to a variety 2:33 of regional states as long as these 2:35 factors hold the possibility for water 2:38 will endure whatever the trigger the war 2:41 does not begin with the u.s. pre-emptive 2:43 attack against Chinese sweet error in 2:45 line based installations although the US 2:48 military would prefer to engage in 2:50 destroy chinese and telling Access 2:51 assets before they can target us planes 2:54 basis and ships it is extremely 2:56 difficult to envisage a scenario in 2:58 which the United States decides to pay 3:00 the political costs associated with 3:02 climbing the ladder of escalation 3:04 instead of the United States needs to 3:07 prepare to absorb the first blow this 3:09 doesn't necessarily mean that the US 3:11 navy usn in US Air Force you have to 3:16 wait for chinese mrs. to rain down upon 3:18 them the United States will almost 3:20 certainly require some clear public 3:22 signal of Chinese intends to escalate 3:24 the high-intensity conventional military 3:26 combat before it can we can engage in 3:28 chinese forces history world war one 3:31 gives any education the plot will not 3:34 allow the United States to fully 3:35 mobilized in order to either launch a 3:37 first strike or properly prepared to 3:39 receive a first row at the same time a 3:42 bolt from the blue strike is unlikely 3:44 instead brewing prices will steadily 3:47 escalated over a few incidents finally 3:50 triggering a set of steps on the part of 3:51 the US military that indicates a baking 3:54 that Washington is genuinely prepared 3:55 for war 3:56 these steps will include searching 3:58 carrier groups shifting deployment to 4:00 Asia from Europe in the Middle East and 4:02 moving fighter squadrons towards the 4:04 Pacific 4:06 this moment China will need to decide 4:07 whether to push forward or back down on 4:10 the economic side king in Washington 4:13 will both press for sanctions the u.s. 4:15 effort will likely involved a 4:16 multilateral effort and will freeze each 4:18 other's assets as well as those of any 4:21 code insurance 4:22 this will begin the economic pain for 4:24 capital and consumers across the Pacific 4:26 Rim in the rest of the world the threat 4:28 of high-intensity combat will also 4:30 disrupt global shipping patterns causing 4:33 potentially severe body mix in 4:34 industrial production 4:36 how did the allies respond whether you 4:39 had allies support American efforts 4:40 against China depends on how the war 4:42 begins if war breaks out over a collapse 4:45 of the DPR clay the United States can 4:47 likely count on the support of South 4:49 Korea and Japan anymore stemming from 4:52 disputes in the East China Sea will 4:54 necessarily involve Japan events in the 4:57 South China Sea lead to war the u.s. can 4:59 probably rely on some of the SC in 5:01 states as well as possibly Japan 5:03 Australia may also support the US over a 5:06 wide range of potential circumstances 5:08 China faces a less complicated situation 5:11 with respect to allies they could 5:14 probably expect never neutrality 5:16 including shipment of arms inspectors 5:18 from Russia little more the primary 5:21 challenge for Chinese diplomats will be 5:23 establishing and maintaining the 5:25 neutrality of potential US allies this 5:28 would involve an exceedingly complex 5:29 dense including reassurances about 5:32 Chinese long-term intentions as well as 5:34 displays of confidence about the 5:36 prospects of Chinese victory which would 5:38 carry the implicit threat of retribution 5:40 for support of the United States North 5:43 Korea presents an even more difficult 5:45 problem any intervention on the part of 5:47 the DPRK runs the risk of triggering 5:49 Japanese and South Korean counter 5:51 intervention in that mask doesn't work 5:54 out for China unless basing his surgery 5:56 that Seoul and Tokyo will go throwing 5:58 for the United States doubtful prospect 6:01 given the possibility to one another 6:03 it may spend more time restraining t on 6:05 getting them pushing it into the 6:06 conflict to hold your breath moments 6:09 biggest moment will come when the plum 6:11 makes an overt attack against the US 6:13 aircraft area 6:14 this represents the most significant 6:16 possible escalation against the united 6:18 states short of a nuclear attack 6:20 it's China decides to attack a US 6:22 carrier the war no longer involved 6:24 posturing and message sending but rather 6:27 a full-scale commitment of capabilities 6:29 designed to defeat and destroy any 6:31 military forces that means for this 6:33 attack matters an attack launched from 6:36 the ship our summary makes any plan 6:38 military vessel fair game for the united 6:40 states that doesn't necessarily 6:41 encourage us attacks against our bases 6:44 second artillery missile installations 6:47 or even naval installations the most 6:50 dangerous form of attack would involve a 6:52 ballistic missile falling against 6:53 bacteria 6:54 this is true not simply because these 6:56 missiles are difficult to intercept but 6:58 also because such mrs. carry nuclear 7:00 warheads the prospect of a nuclear state 7:03 using a conventional ballistic missile 7:05 against another nuclear state especially 7:07 one with the presumptive nuclear 7:09 advantage is laden with complexity the 7:12 next hold your breath moment will come 7:14 when the first US missile strike Chinese 7:16 targets given the overwhelming nuclear 7:19 advantage that the United States holds 7:21 over China the first wave of us attacks 7:23 will prove deeply stressful to the PRC's 7:26 military and civilian leadership this is 7:28 particularly the case if the Chinese 7:30 believe that they can win the 7:31 conventional level of escalation they 7:33 were worried that the United States 7:35 nuclear in order to retain its advantage 7:38 we can expect the China will deployed 7:40 submarines in advance of the onset of 7:42 hostilities the surface fleet is a 7:44 different story however in any I 7:47 intensity combat scenario the US navy 7:50 usn and US Air Force will see Chinese 7:53 worships legitimate targets for 7:55 destruction and we'll attack with aaron 7:57 surface assets 7:58 indeed even hiding import probably won't 8:01 prevent attacks on the plains largest 8:03 ships including the carry only outing in 8:05 the big new amphibious transport ducks 8:07 china will only sorta the plan under two 8:10 circumstances it feels it has sufficient 8:13 force protection to allow task force to 8:15 operate relatively unmolested or China's 8:18 position and become desperate in either 8:20 situation us submarines will pose the 8:23 most immediate threat to the surface 8:24 forces under most war scenarios China 8:28 needs to fight first permanent purpose 8:30 not simply the destruction of us and 8:32 Japanese military forces this means that 8:35 the plane was conveyed capture supply 8:37 and defense and geographical point most 8:40 likely either Taiwan or an outpost to me 8:43 east or south china sea need to 8:45 establish the conditions under which the 8:47 plant and conduct surface support 8:49 missions who will win colon the most 8:53 difficult question to judges who will 8:55 win because the question involves 8:57 assessing wide variety of unknowns we 8:59 don't know how well Chinese anti-ship 9:01 ballistic missiles will function or how 9:03 destructive us cyber attacks against the 9:06 plan will prove or how dangerous the 9:08 f-22 Raptor will be the conventional 9:10 Chinese fighters or how effectively the 9:12 different elements of the plan will 9:14 cooperate an actual combat finally we 9:17 don't know when the war will start both 9:19 the plot in the US military will look 9:21 much different in 2020 than they do in 9:23 2014 how the war would end this war 9:27 doesn't end with the surrender signed on 9:29 the battle ship instead it ends with one 9:32 participant in vineyard in likely 9:35 preparing for the next round 9:36 the best-case scenario for an American 9:39 victory would be a result into the 9:40 collapse of the imperial german 9:42 government at the end of world war one 9:44 or the collapse of Leopoldo Galtieri is 9:46 military government after the Franklin's 9:48 conflict humiliating defeat in war 9:51 including the destruction of a 9:53 significant portion of the plan in the 9:54 plus as well as severe economic distress 9:57 could undermine the grip of the CCCP on 9:59 Chinese governance 10:01 this is an extremely if the prospect 10:04 however in the United States shouldn't 10:06 count on victory leading to a new 10:07 revolution wild china wins China can 10:10 claim victory by either forcing the 10:12 United States into an accommodation to 10:14 us goals by removing the Alliance 10:17 framework that motivates in legitimates 10:19 us action the United States cannot 10:21 continue the war South Korea Japan 10:23 Taiwan and the Philippines no longer 10:26 have an interest in fighting either of 10:29 these require doing significant damage 10:30 to u.s. military forces and potentially 10:33 to the US economy the impact of a defeat 10:36 on us domestic politics would be tough 10:39 to predict the United States has lost 10:41 was in the past recedes have generally 10:44 involves negotiated settlements of areas 10:46 not particularly critical to us global 10:48 interests 10:49 it's not clear how the u.s. people would 10:51 interpret a major military defeat at the 10:53 hands of a peer competitor especially 10:56 appear competitor that continues to grow 10:58 in military and economic power the 11:00 President and political party that led 11:02 the US and the world would likely suffer 11:04 dramatically at the polls at least after 11:06 the immediate shock defeat for off the 11:09 biggest diplomatic and political 11:10 challenge that both countries face will 11:12 probably be finding a way for the other 11:14 side to give up maintaining its owner 11:16 no one benefits of this war becomes a 11:18 struggle for regime survival or four 11:20 national prestige how the peace begins 11:23 the prospect for us conflict with China 11:26 and the asia-pacific depends on a basic 11:28 appreciation of the changing balance of 11:30 economic and military power world war 11:33 one could not change the fact that 11:34 Germany would remain the largest and 11:36 most powerful state and central europe 11:38 similarly war is unlikely to change the 11:41 long-term trajectory of Chinese growth 11:43 and assertiveness at2 piece involves 11:46 re-establishment of productive economic 11:47 relations between China the United 11:50 States and the rest of the Pacific Rim 11:52 regardless of how the war plays out it 11:55 will almost certainly disrupt patterns 11:57 of Trade and Investment around the world 11:59 either side decides to attack or more 12:02 likely inter commercial shipping the 12:05 impact to devastate firms and countries 12:07 that have no direct stake in the war 12:09 however the governments of both the US 12:11 and China will face strong pressures to 12:13 facilitate the resumption of all trade 12:15 relations at least in consumer goods 12:18 China will not find it difficult to 12:20 reconstruct for losses even if the 12:22 United States effectively in violates 12:25 the plan in the plus you can expect that 12:27 the Chinese shipbuilding than aviation 12:29 industries will replace most losses 12:30 within the decade probably with 12:32 substantial assistance from Russia 12:34 indeed significant Chinese war losses 12:37 complete invigorate both the Russian 12:39 ship building in aviation industries 12:41 moreover the role will by necessity 12:43 modernized blocked by destroying legacy 12:47 capability a new fleet of ships and 12:49 planes will replace the legacy force or 12:52 losses to trained personnel hurts the 12:54 experience gained in combat will produce 12:56 a new highly-trained affected court 12:59 personnel this will lead to better more 13:02 realistic training for the next 13:03 generations of PLAs soldiers sailors and 13:06 airmen lose the Chinese military will 13:09 likely be morally for a decade after the 13:11 war the United States may have a harder 13:14 time replacing losses and not only 13:16 because US warships and aircraft cost 13:18 more than their Chinese counterparts the 13:21 production lines for the f-15 and f-16 13:23 or near the end and the u.s. no longer 13:26 produces f-22 moreover us shipbuilding 13:30 has declined to the point that replacing 13:31 significant for losses could take a very 13:34 long time 13:34 this might prove particularly 13:36 problematic if the war demonstrated 13:38 severe problems with the f-35 Joint 13:40 Strike Fighter given us intention to arm 13:43 the u.s. usn and USMC with f-35 variants 13:48 over the next decade 13:49 automatic receiving direct force 13:51 planning for the foreseeable future 13:53 the united states will have to face the 13:55 with it worth it 13:56 question 13:58 victory or defeat the US will suffer 14:00 substantial military and economic damage 14:02 even if the US wins it will not solve 14:05 the problem of China even in the 14:07 unlikely event at the ccp collapses a 14:10 successor regime will still be China's 14:12 literal potentially could cement the 14:15 us-led Alliance system making the 14:17 containment of China considerably less 14:19 expensive assuming that the Lord began 14:22 with an assertive Chinese move in the 14:23 eastern South China Sea the United 14:26 States could probably paint China of the 14:28 aggressor and establish itself as the 14:30 focal point for balancing behavior in 14:32 the region Chinese aggression might also 14:34 spiritual allies especially Japan to 14:38 increase their defense expenditures 14:39 award can invigorate US government and 14:42 society around the long-term project of 14:44 containing China the US could respond by 14:47 redoubling its efforts to outpace the 14:49 Chinese military although this would 14:51 provoke an arms race that could prove 14:53 devastating to both sides however given 14:56 the lack of ideological or territorial 14:58 threats to the United States this might 15:00 be a tough sell 15:01 finally the United States could respond 15:04 by effectively removing itself from the 15:06 east asian political scene at least in 15:08 the military sense this option would be 15:11 hard for many in the u.s. to swallow 15:13 given the generations of American 15:15 foreign policy makers at Harvard 15:16 hegemonic ambitions conclusion the 15:19 window for war between the United States 15:21 and China will in all likelihood last 15:24 for a long time preventing the world 15:26 will require tremendous skill and the 15:28 humans from diplomats and policymakers 15:30 similarly the demands of positioning 15:33 either side for victory will continue to 15:35 tax diplomatic military and 15:37 technological resources for the 15:39 foreseeable future at the moment however 15:42 you shouldn't forget the china in the 15:44 United States constitute the heart of 15:46 one of the most productive economic 15:47 regions the world has ever seen 15:49 that's something to protect and to build 15:51 on Robert Farley is a senior lecturer at 15:54 the Patterson school of diplomacy and 15:56 international commerce is work includes 15:59 military doctrine national security and 16:02 maritime affairs 16:03 he blogs and lawyers guns and money and 16:06 information dissemination and the 16:07 diplomat






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1 comment:

  1. not realistic, is just exclusively china us war, trade war economic war. the us washington will lose, today the us is fractured nation. and the occident is also fractured. divisions in europe and australia. no one will follow trump only a fool. russia is a solid nation as it is chine. the us is not. is a fragile nation.

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