Trump Will CRUSH Crooked Hillary Clinton - Latest Electoral College Map Prediction
Good morning, I’m still reporting on the Electoral Collage
Trump Will Crush Clinton - Latest Electoral College Prediction.
The UPI/CVoter state poll was released on Monday and it shows that Donald Trump improved in all but one battleground state over the past week – Pennsylvania.
The UPI poll shows that if the elections were held last weekend, the Electoral map would look like this 5 days from now:
with Clinton winning 341 Electoral Votes to Trump’s 197.
However, in light of our in-depth study of the Florida Absentee and Early Voting vote, we are factoring in two skews.
First of all the Monster vote skew, which is a combination of net crossovers, primarily from Clinton to Trump, plus Trump’s net plus among new voters, plus voters who have not voted since before Obama, plus a net gain for Trump for the enthusiasm of his voters which skyrocketing as Clinton’s crashes.
Combining all these factors, what we believe is a conservative estimate is adding + 2% for Trump and subtracting – 2% for Clinton – a net skew of 4%.
The existing poll numbers for the two leading 3rd-party candidates, Johnson and Stein are without historical precedent.
Therefore, we will reduce the current combined vote of Stein and Johnson by 50% and split the remaining 50% between Trump and Clinton on a 70/30 basis.
So what do the tossup states look like after adding in these skews?
Florida – The UPI poll has Clinton’s lead in Florida slipping from last week’s 2.4% to only 1% this week. Our previous analysis showed Trump winning by 11%.
However, UPI shows Clinton at 48.2 and Trump at 47.2 with Others drawing 4.6%.
Applying our skew #1, we see Clinton dropping to 46.2 and Trump rising to 49.2. When you add in skew #2, Trump moves up another 1.6% to 50.8% and Clinton to 46.9% - a 3.9% win for Trump.
North Carolina – According to UPI, Clinton leads Trump 48.2 to 47.8, with Others getting 4.0.
Applying our skews, Trump wins NC 51.2 to 46.8 – a 4.4% victory for Trump.
Virginia – Once thought out of play in earlier polling, Virginia has tightened considerably. Clinton now leads 49.5 to 46.2 with 4.3% for other.
After our skews, Trump +49.7%, Clinton 48.1% - a 1.6% margin in Virginia
Ohio – has shown Trump leading in many other polls, but UPI shows Clinton leading by a 49.5 to 47.1 margin with Other taking 3.4%.
Adding oul skews, however, Trump 50.3% to Clinton: 48.0% - a 2.3% margin.
As you can see, taking these 4 states alone, puts Trump over the top 266 to 272, and since all 3 are in the eastern time zone, this will be known sooner than later.
But there is still more good news.
We started doing stories about how massive numbers of Democrats were crossing over to becoming registered Republicans more than 8 months ago, so it is not surprising that Pennsylvania is affected by our assumptions.
According to UPI, Clinton leads Trump – 50.3 to 45.6 with Others at 4.2%
After skewing, we show Trump beating Clinton, 49.1 to 48.9% - a razor-thin .2% margin. But again, this is a conservative estimate, especially in Pennsylvania’s case.
The addition of a Trump victory in Pennsylvania is huge. Clinton would now trail by 246 to 292.
UPI has Clinton leading, 49.5 to 46.6, with a 3.9% Other vote.
But after applying our skews, Trump takes it 50% to 48.1% - a 1.9% margin.
Bill Still is a former newspaper editor and publisher. He has written for USA Today, The Saturday Evening Post, the Los Angeles Times Syndicate, OMNI magazine, and has also produced the syndicated radio program, Health News. He has written 22 books and two documentary videos and is the host of his wildly popular daily YouTube Channel the “Still Report”, the quintessential report on the economy and Washington.
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